Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chalmette, LA

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

I can see clearly now that rain has ended...for a few hours. Yep thats right more storms can be expected today and tomorrow and Thursday
and
There is already a few showers and a few thunderstorms that have been trying to develop overnight and once the sun comes up storms will quickly start to percolate again.

Nothing has changed and nothing looks to really change for at least another 48 to 60 hours. We remain between two ridges with the Lower MS Valley in the middle of a weakness and even some troughiness.
with no real suppression in place and moisture abundant it won't take much to get convection and then once a few storms get going all it takes is boundary interaction. If storms fire very early then they will likely move through quickly but that would allow for additional storms later in the afternoon and early evening as it will not take anything for us to recover and destabilize. If storms hold off till late morning/midday then we will likely see one more prolonged round of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon with things quickly quieting down mid/late evening. Favoring more of a 2 clusters of storms approach today given what looks like convection trying to fire already just off to our southwest.

The best things about the numerous storms and cloud cover is it does help contain the afternoon temps some with most of the area only getting into the upper 80s with a few lower 90s. That said can't really say it is much of a relief as the heat index is still climbing into the mid to upper 90s today. However tomorrow and through the week the heat index could be a bigger issue as low level moisture looks to increase with the afternoon heat index back in the low 100s for a good chunk of the area. /CAB/

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Well if you are ready for Summer it looks like it will finally arrive by the end of the work week and through the weekend. That said rain chances will still remain elevated they will just not be as high as we have been dealing with and storms will likely be a little more scattered. Models are in good agreement with the evolution of the pattern so confidence is high in the forecast.
NBM may be a touch too high with the PoPs but afternoon highs and morning lows look pretty good so no deviations made from the latest NBM values.

Mid lvl pattern finally shifts with our ridge to the west sliding east and building. By late Friday it will be centered over the Lower MS Valley but it will only be a 593dm ridge which is not that stout and with PWs still above 1.8" this may act a little more like a dirty ridge. In addition the center of the ridge will be well north of the area putting us on the southern periphery of it which guess what, yep keeps the elevated rain chances over the area. PoPs will be around 40-60% which is a far cry from the constant 70-90% we have been seeing but still well above normal of 20-40%. H925 temps around 24-25C which if there is less rain and cloud cover should yield a few more mid 90s but given the likelihood of scattered storms and clouds isolated highs around 93-94 may be the best we see Friday, not complaining.

This weekend the ridge will continue to build and by Sunday could be 597dm which is quite a bit stronger the problem is, it will be be centered over the Ohio Valley. With it displaced so far to the NNE we will be well into the easterlies which should yield daily convection with each weak easterly wave that moves across the northern Gulf and into the area. So yes slightly lower PoPs than now but still pretty darn good chance of seeing storms for much of the area.

One thing to mention is we will need to keep a closer eye on the heat index Friday and through the weekend. If highs are able to get into the mid 90s, the boundary layer will be very humid and the heat index values will climb above 100 possibly approaching the mid 100s for a few locations. /CAB/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

With the exception of MCB all terminals are in VFR status and MCB will be back in VFR status as this low stratus quickly burns off in the next hour. Biggest issue is the same as it has been the last week, convection. Storms are already trying to pop to our southwest and those along with additional storms will likely begin to impact terminals by 16/17Z. Obviously with convection, reductions in cigs and vsbys are expected. /CAB/

MARINE
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Overall, benign marine conditions expected through the cycle a high pressure dominates the region. Winds should generally be moderate at max with some gusts up to 15 knots or so toward the end of the week as surface high pressure interacts with the leeside trough across the high plains. Otherwise, diurnally driven convection typical for this time of year can be expected with locally higher winds and seas in the heaviest convection. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 88 72 90 72 / 60 10 60 10 BTR 90 74 92 75 / 80 10 70 10 ASD 88 74 91 75 / 80 20 70 10 MSY 89 78 92 78 / 80 10 70 20 GPT 86 78 89 77 / 70 30 70 30 PQL 88 74 90 75 / 70 30 70 30

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.