Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 1:10 PM   Moonset 2:45 AM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 902 Pm Cdt Mon Apr 15 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Friday night - South winds around 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 902 Pm Cdt Mon Apr 15 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
southerly return flow will persist over the area through the week with high pressure anchored to our east. The pressure gradient between this high and a storm system over the great plains will tighten a bit on Tuesday, resulting in an increase in winds and seas and requiring small craft exercise caution headlines, before relaxing again on Wednesday.

FXUS64 KLIX 160458 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1158 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Upper ridging axis curves from the northern plains, through the central midwest, and into the northwest gulf. A low pressure sink is centered just north of the four-corners. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic extends into the western Gulf and southern States. As we move through the short term, the low moves over the upper midwest trailing a frontal boundary that should be maturing but forced by the high pressure over the Gulf to sit north of us by the end of the short term.

We will see pleasant temperatures and dry weather, although a high cirrus canopy predominates the sky. Mild Winds will be out of the southeast to south building to 15mph by the end of the short term.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

As we move into and through the long term, the upper low continues to the northeast and breaks down by late in the week. The attendant front stays north of us leaving an early season zonal pattern maintaining warmer that normal temperatures at the end of the week. (NBM guidance actually has near record highs in Baton Rouge, which just doesn't seem likely so dropped the high temp grid slightly on Friday.) At the very end of the period a weak shortwave trough brings some moisture and possibility of rain into the area. Chances look better on Sunday at this time, but do exist on Saturday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

No major changes in thinking from the previous forecast package. A decent inversion layer has started to form over the past hour with IFR ceilings already in place at MCB. Continued deepening of the inversion will lead to LIFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities of around 3 miles. At ASD, HDC, MSY, NEW, and GPT, an extensive low stratus deck ranging from 500 to 800 feet is expected to develop beneath the elevated inversion layer during the same general time frame as MCB. Stronger winds at BTR and HUM will keep ceilings higher and in MVFR range at around 1500 to 2000 feet between 10z and 14z. After 14z, warming temperature will mix out the inversion layer, and a return to prevailing VFR conditons is expected.
Southerly winds will also turn more gusty by the end of the forecast period with sustained winds near 15 knots possible.
After 00z, another inversion will start to form and have MVFR ceilings returning by 03z at several of the terminals.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Conditions look favorable for another inversion to develop just above the surface after 06z. This inversion will reach peak intensity by 10z, and some boundary layer decoupling is expected to take hold by this point. The inversion will once again be strongest at MCB, and have previaling LIFR ceilings of 300 feet in place. Given the stronger boundary layer flow, visibilities should remain in the 1 to 3 mile range between 10z and 14z. At ASD, HDC, MSY, NEW, and GPT, an extensive low stratus deck ranging from 500 to 800 feet is expected to develop beneath the elevated inversion layer during the same general time frame as MCB.
Stronger winds at BTR and HUM will keep ceilings higher and in MVFR range at around 1500 to 2000 feet between 10z and 14z. After 14z, warming temperature will mix out the inversion layer, and a return to prevailing VFR conditons is expected. Southerly winds will also turn more gusty by the end of the forecast period with sustained winds near 15 knots possible. PG

MARINE
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Marine conditions will be relatively quiet with winds out of the southeast to south. A short Small Craft Exercise Caution headline is in place for late tonight into early morning highlighting the likelihood of winds just above 15kt in the southwestern offshore marine zones. Another short period of elevated winds early Wednesday morning may require the SCEC, also.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 62 81 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 67 86 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 65 81 68 84 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 68 82 70 84 / 0 10 0 0 GPT 65 78 67 80 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 62 80 65 82 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Mon -- 02:02 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:32 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:56 AM CDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:09 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:14 PM CDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 07:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:04 PM CDT     1.19 feet High Tide
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