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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 940 Pm Cst Sat Dec 2 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 6 am cst Sunday...
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots late. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late this evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Visibility 1 nm or less late this evening and early morning.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 940 Pm Cst Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
a cold front continues to very slowly drift further into the area with onshore flow remaining in place in advance of the front. A marine dense fog advisory is in effect for late this evening through tomorrow morning as conditions look favorable for development. A cold front will move through by later in the day Sunday allowing high pressure to finally build over the northern gulf for the start of the new week.

FXUS64 KLIX 030145 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 745 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 713 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Seeing gradual reduction in ceilings across the area as air temps cool and reduce LCL height. 5-15 knot west-southwesterly flow of moist gulf air continues to move over cooler shelf waters aiding in production of marine fog that will become progressively more dense during the overnight hours. Advection of this dense fog is most likely across parts of coastal LA and MS, particularly from Plaquemines up through eastern Orleans, southern St. Tammany, and east across the MS coast. This has prompted the issuance of a dense fog advisory for these areas in addition to the coastal waters. Patchy dense fog can cause rapid reductions in visibility that are hazardous to drivers. Please use caution if out on the roads, use low beam headlights and increase the distance between you and the car ahead.

Winds will gradually become more northwesterly after midnight which could allow for visibilities to improve as marine dense fog gets advected back over water, but too uncertain at this stage to count on patchy dense fog impacts completely dissipating before sunrise. Another aspect to monitor closely will be whether any of the marine fog that develops over Lake Pontchartrain moves southeast into Lakefront and parts of Orleans, but probabilities are lower for this.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

The Flood Watch has been dropped for all areas at this point as the only remaining moderate showers are about to exit our CWA to the east. Isolated light rain showers will remain possible through this evening, but after midnight we are expected to dry out. The cold front will continue to slowly push into the area, currently looks to be sitting just NW of Baton Rouge based on surface obs.
As this cold front pushes in, we will see drying and cooling conditions arrive. Sunday is expected to be quiet as the front continues to push towards the coast, exiting offshore by the late evening.

The main hazard in the short term is the possibility of dense fog overnight into tomorrow morning. Held off on an advisory for now as the latest wind forecast could potentially hinder things, but there is a good chance one could be needed later. Did end going with a Marine Dense Fog as models were really hitting on it.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Following the exit of our front, high pressure will start to build in from the west. This will settle us into a quieter and drier pattern through the next several days. Temperatures will cool off briefly back to near normal, dropping to the low to mid 60s for highs and the upper 30s to upper 40s for lows, but these will recover later in the week as onshore flow returns.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Some modest improvements in CIGS to MVFR have been observed this afternoon as shower activity continues to push eastward out of the area. Concerns now turn VIS/CIG impacts from marine dense fog for coastal terminals, especially GPT, as well as advection fog and low stratus reducing VIS to IFR/LIFR at times tonight at most terminals. Light southwesterly winds will gradually become more northwesterly overnight and into late Sunday morning which will allow drier air to gradually mix in and reduce CIG/VIS concerns.
Thereafter, improvements to VFR through afternoon are expected with scattered to broken high clouds.

MARINE
Issued at 317 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

A cold front continues to very slowly drift further into the area with onshore flow remaining in place in advance of the front. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for late this evening through tomorrow morning as conditions looks favorable for development. A cold front will move through by later in the day Sunday allowing high pressure to finally build over the northern Gulf for the start of the new week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 54 67 48 64 / 30 0 0 0 BTR 58 71 53 65 / 20 0 0 0 ASD 59 70 50 68 / 40 0 0 0 MSY 62 68 55 66 / 40 0 0 0 GPT 61 69 53 67 / 60 0 0 0 PQL 61 72 49 71 / 60 10 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for LAZ069-070-076-078.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for MSZ083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Sat -- 05:25 AM CST     1.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:13 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:59 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:55 PM CST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:53 PM CST     Moonrise
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Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana, Tide feet

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