Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kerrville, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:37PM Sunday September 19, 2021 8:34 AM CDT (13:34 UTC) Moonrise 6:19PMMoonset 4:57AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kerrville, TX
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location: 30.01, -99.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 191152 AAA AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 652 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

AVIATION. /12Z TAFS/ VFR conditions are expected to prevail across area terminals through the forecast period. The anticipated low level clouds for a short time window for the San Antonio sites have not materialized as of yet. However, there still a few hours from 12Z to 14Z for SCT010 to develop, but things are not looking favorable as dew point depression at SAT as of this writing sits at 5 degrees. Also, latest HRRR forecast sounding at SAT suggests dry conditions at low levels with nighttime microphysics satellite imagery showing very little of cloud development south of Bexar county. Otherwise, light and variable winds continue this morning and shifting to the southeast 6 to 8 knots this afternoon. An isolated storm or two can't be ruled out this afternoon, to the north of the SAT sites. If they do develop, thunderstorm gust winds of 30 to 35 knots could occur as soundings show an inverted V-shaped signature.

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 306 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday) . Mostly clear skies overnight across most areas with a group of mid level clouds pushing to the south along the international border near Del Rio. Otherwise, light and variable winds across the area early this morning. Low clouds are expected to develop across some parts of South Central Texas close to dawn as suggested by model guidance. However, the nighttime microphysics channel is detecting what we believe is the beginning of low clouds development over a small area over the escarpment. Expect this trend to continue through mid Sunday morning while clouds scattered out in the afternoon for mostly sunny skies. It is going to be another hot day across the area with highs in the mid to upper 90s across most areas and up to 100 degrees for Del Rio and vicinity locations.

The HRRR, NAM Nest and Texas Tech suggest convection initiation around 2 PM along the Balcones Escarpment. Looking closely at the GFS and NAM, they show a short wave moving across the area around the same time under a northwest flow regime above. Area forecast soundings (NAM and GFS) show MLCAPE around 400 to 700 J/Kg, which is enough for a storm or two to develop. If they do develop, the soundings are showing an inverted V-shaped feature that could bring downdraft winds of 30 to 40 mph to the surface. The window of opportunity is small but there as a drier airmass is forecast to follow the short wave according to GFS Total Precipitable Water product.

Sunday evening looks dry with overnight in the 70s most areas. Monday shows dry and hot with highs in the upper 90s to 103 degrees for Del Rio. San Antonio record MaxT for Monday is 100 degrees from 1947. At this time we are going with 98 degrees for high, however, models are coming warmer for SAT area last few runs. For AUS sites, forecast temperatures are coming around 100 to 101.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday) . A trough axis will be moving through the Central Plains on Tuesday and will send the first decent cold front of the fall season into South-Central Texas. One last hot day is expected on Tuesday ahead of the front with highs in the lower to upper 90s across the area. The front is expected to begin to push into the area Tuesday afternoon and the temps closer to 90 are expected in the Hill Country where the front will arrive first. Models are in pretty good agreement that scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the frontal boundary as activity is expected to initiate with peak heating. This activity is expected to move south through the evening hours as the front progresses south. Instability amounts are only expected to near 1000 J/kg and 500 mb flow will be too weak for any appreciable shear. Therefore, not expecting any substantial organized convection with our first cold front. However, can't completely rule out isolated strong storms with possible gusty winds as forecasting soundings show a good inverted-v signal.

Temperatures behind the front will drop about 10 degrees with highs Wednesday in the middle to upper 80s for most spots, and warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s for the remainder of the long-term forecast. With dewpoints in the 40s and 50s, night time lows should be able to drop into the 50s and 60s Wednesday night through Friday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Austin Camp Mabry 97 74 100 75 97 / - 0 0 0 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 72 99 73 97 / - 0 0 0 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 71 100 73 97 / 20 0 0 0 40 Burnet Muni Airport 95 72 98 74 91 / - 0 0 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 100 74 103 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 73 100 74 95 / - 0 0 0 30 Hondo Muni Airport 98 71 100 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 96 71 100 73 98 / 20 - 0 0 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 75 100 76 97 / - 0 0 0 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 73 98 75 97 / 10 0 0 0 40 Stinson Muni Airport 99 74 101 76 98 / - - 0 0 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

Short-Term/Aviation . 17 Long-Term . Hampshire


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kerrville, Kerrville Municipal Airport/Louis Schreiner Field, TX7 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair65°F62°F90%1016.6 hPa
Fredericksburg, Gillespie County Airport, TX23 mi59 minN 010.00 miOvercast65°F62°F90%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERV

Wind History from ERV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE4S4NW5E7N6E6E8E6CalmW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmS7S6S4SE7S5CalmS3W3S5SE5E5E5E5E5SE3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmE3S3SE4SE5E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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