Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nocatee, FL

LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Warm and mostly dry conditions continue into next week as mid- level ridging remains over the region. A progressive shortwave over the southern Plains on Sunday will lift northeastward as it drags a cold front toward the SE US early next week. The front is expected to stall just north of the area by mid week. Continued south- southwesterly flow will lead to a gradual increase in moisture to the region which could produce a few showers/storms along the Altamaha river basin near the frontal boundary and where the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes merge mid week next week.
Strong subsidence aloft and a prolonged return flow will warm temperatures to above seasonable into next week. Due to the Atlantic sea breeze shifting inland each afternoon, highs will range from the upper 70s/low 80s along the immediate coast to the low 90s inland. Near record temperatures will be possible for inland areas next week. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s inland to the mid/upper 60s at the coast and along the St Johns river.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conds will continue through the period except for a brief potential for MVFR fog at VQQ in the 07-11Z time frame, and will continue to leave out fog mention at GNV, due to fog chances remaining at 20% or less at this time. Otherwise just a wind forecast as SE winds this afternoon in the 11-14G17-21 knot range will fade to 4-8 knots after sunset, then pick back up into the 11-13 knot range towards the end of the TAF period in the 15-17Z time frame. Just a FEW/SCT fair weather Cu expect during the daytime hours in the 3500-4000 ft range.

MARINE
Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

High pressure ridge axis from the Western Atlantic will be anchored along or just north of the local waters will continue a general Southeast flow through the weekend and into early next week. The long range models attempt to bring a weak frontal boundary into the SE US states by the middle of next week but it appears to remain north of the local waters at this time. Brief periods of SE to S winds around 15 knots will be possible this forecast period, but overall not expecting any headlines.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate to borderline High risk as SE flow remains elevated enough to build surf/breakers into the 2-4 ft range, this will be combined with increased number of folks at beach locations due to warm weather this holiday weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Warm and dry conditions continue into next week. Atlantic sea breeze is expected to shift inland each afternoon. Low-level moisture gradually increases this weekend in the generally southeast flow. Very good dispersions anticipated each day this weekend with elevated transport winds and mixing heights. Patchy high daytime dispersions will be possible mainly for north-central Florida.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 58 88 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 66 78 66 79 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 60 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 63 81 65 81 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 58 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 57 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.