Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nocatee, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:49PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 10:00 PM EDT (02:00 UTC) Moonrise 6:33PMMoonset 6:03AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Expires:202004080915;;738727 Fzus52 Kjax 080102 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 902 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-080915- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 902 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots...shifting to the southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds becoming 4 seconds after midnight. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..West northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..North northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming north northeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 902 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis.. Surface high pressure will remain south of the area through Thursday which will continue south to southwest winds for the area waters. An isolated Thunderstorm will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening for the coastal waters. A cold front is forecast to move into the forecast area by Thursday night and Friday...with stronger northerly winds expected Friday. The cold front will lift back north as a warm front over the local area Saturday night. Long period northeast swells have begun to diminish over the area and will subside through Wednesday night.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of apr 07, 2020 at 1200 utc... 59 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 63 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 81 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 103 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nocatee, FL
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location: 30.02, -81.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 080110 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 910 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

UPDATE.

Not much change for the evening update. A few areas of stratiform light rain across the nrn zones where radar shows weak returns pushing southeast and fading. This activity associated with a weak mid level disturbance. Rainfall amounts are very light or trace amounts. Based on sfc obs and radar, will tweak the POPs up a bit to about 20-25 percent for this activity before it fades later tonight. Low temps look good for lower to mid 60s, with the warmer lows over southeast GA where more persistent cloudiness is expected. Still looks like increasing low clouds by 12z Wed streaming in from the west.

MARINE. Little change for the updated CWF with southerly winds up to 15-20 kt offshore and 10-15 kt nearshore. Wind dir should become more southwest toward early morning hours. Will continue with SCEC headline for offshore waters.

PREV DISCUSSION [758 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday].

Tonight: Weak disturbance aloft tracks through GA and into the Wrn Atlc towards morning. Abundant mid/upper level clouds are expected along with continued low rainfall chances across SE GA near the Ocmulgee/Altamaha River Basins of 20-30%, while further south across NE FL rainfall chances will remain at 10% or less. Likely will continue to see "light" radar echoes aloft/Virga across SE GA through the night, but measurable rainfall will remain limited. The lingering W-SW sfc flow around 5 mph or so through the night will limit fog formation but this increased low level moisture off the NE GOMEX may trigger some low clouds/stratus over inland areas towards morning. The slightly elevated winds will keep temps very mild with lows generally in the lower to middle 60s area-wide.

Wednesday: Lingering moisture in the Westerly flow combined with daytime heating with temps in the 80s may be enough to trigger widely scattered showers and isolated afternoon storms with PoPs generally in the 20-40% range from the I-10 corridor northward across SE GA. While the breezy W-SW flow at 10-15G20-25 mph will help to continue above normal temps in the 80s, it will also keep the Atlc Sea Breeze front pinned near the coast and this will limit any focusing mechanism for shower/storm activity since the weak disturbance aloft has already moved offshore. Current model rainfall amounts still keep most areas at less than 0.10" through the daytime hours.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday night Through Thursday Night].

We continue to see strong mainly zonal winds aloft Wed night with a swath of deeper moisture streaming through areas mainly to the north of I-10. Weak disturbance aloft and instability will continue a low end chance of showers and potential a couple of thunderstorms Wed night. Furthermore, model soundings suggest some organized and strong/locally severe storm potential given 0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60 kt and MLCAPE of about 2200 J/kg. This threat looks highest in southeast GA though it could seep a little further southward and time frame would likely be in the early evening hours. Main concern would be locally damaging wind threat. As a disturbance moves east-southeast out of the area late, so too will best dynamic lift. Breezy southwest flow just above the sfc may trigger some stratus and potentially few showers as well across northeast FL late at night.

Thursday . broad corridor of southwest of low level flow will continue as a cold front moves across the Appalachians and down into southeast GA. Moisture looks pretty limited along the front and in the mid levels, so rain chances look fairly low at this time at about 20 percent. Southwest flow ahead of the front and mostly to partly sunny skies will boost highs through the 80s, and probably into the lower 90s for parts of northeast FL mainly eastern parts. Record highs will be possible. Breezy west- southwest winds of about 15 mph expected.

Thursday night . cold front pushes southeast on the ahead of high pressure ridge nosing into the southeast states. Skies are not expected to clear out as a fairly robust shortwave disturbance pushes eastward through the Gulf coast states and into our area by early Friday morning. Guidance shows quite high moisture levels and forecast area in favorable area of an upper level jet overnight. This should enable at least a low end chance of mainly stratiform rain toward the early morning hours, as the airmass will be fairly stable in the wake of the cold front.

LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday].

Friday . the shortwave disturbance will be moving through our area as the cold front continues to sag southward over the FL peninsula. Cloudy skies initially with a chance of rain for mainly south half of the area. Increasing NVA during the aftn and decreased lift will help diminish rain chances in the afternoon and certainly by the evening hours. Cooler with highs in the 70s. Mostly dry Fri night with cool temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s Sat morning under cooler northerly drainage flow as surface high pressure builds north of the region.

The break from rain chances is short-lived on Saturday as see a strong shortwave moving into the srn U.S. with an associated sfc low developing over TX area. The front to the south of the area will tend to lift back northward, with this warm front lifting through the area Saturday night. This will prompt a chance rainfall returning Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Warming trend in temps expected back above or near climo.

Sunday . warm front is expected to push northward Sunday morning and aftn with a chance of showers and potential thunderstorms. We should be in the warm sector Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of fairly potent cold front. There is potential for a squall line with this front. More precise timing is uncertain with the GFS faster than the ECWMF. Best estimate at this time is for late Sunday night or Monday morning. Somewhat cooler and drier air may filter into the area by Monday night through Tuesday but some lower confidence in sensible wx with GFS ensemble run showing the front stalling near or over the forecast region.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Thursday]

Prevailing VFR cigs, varying between 6-15 kft, through late tonight, with just a small chance of a shower near SSI for the next hour or so. Increasing chances of low clouds from the southwest late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Anticipate a good chance of IFR affecting GNV and VQQ by about 09z, with MVFR possible for remaining TAFs through the morning hours as well. Low clouds should begin to lift above IFR by late morning and early aftn. MVFR cigs will be possible rest of the day during daytime heating as low levels at or below 5000 ft remain fairly moist. Anticipate a fairly early start to a pretty good chance of showers after 15z with a slight chance of a thunderstorm after 18z. Winds will be light and variable tonight, becoming southwest to west near 8-12G20 kt Wednesday.

MARINE. Long period east to northeast swells have begun to diminish over the area and continue to subside Wednesday. Southerly flow near 10-15 kt this evening will turn to the southwest Wednesday morning. Surface high pressure stays south of the area while a cold front is forecast to approach the area by Thursday. This will continue a prevailing southwest flow Wed into Thu. Cold front moves through Thu evening through Friday morning. Stronger northerly flow expected Friday with potential for SCA conditions. Winds shift around to the east and then southeast-south Fri night into Sat as a warm front approaches from the south. Warm front lifts northward Sun with increasing south winds ahead of the next cold front.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk for NE FL and SE GA beaches rest of today.

HYDROLOGY.

A couple of coastal gauge sites have risen into action stage the past 12-24 hrs. Large part of the tidal anomaly is full moon today. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect into tonight to account for these readings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 64 85 68 88 56 / 20 50 30 20 20 SSI 66 82 69 87 58 / 10 40 30 20 10 JAX 65 88 69 92 58 / 10 30 20 20 20 SGJ 65 86 68 88 59 / 0 20 10 20 10 GNV 63 86 68 88 58 / 0 10 20 20 20 OCF 63 86 68 86 62 / 0 10 20 20 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 13 mi61 min SSE 11 G 12 71°F 72°F1016.6 hPa (+0.0)
41117 16 mi31 min 69°F3 ft
LTJF1 25 mi49 min 72°F 61°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 26 mi76 min SSE 5.1 72°F 1018 hPa68°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 26 mi43 min S 6 G 8 73°F 69°F1016.6 hPa
BLIF1 27 mi49 min S 6 G 8 74°F 1017.1 hPa56°F
DMSF1 27 mi43 min 73°F
NFDF1 29 mi43 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 74°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi43 min SSE 5.1 G 8.9
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 48 mi61 min 70°F2 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL4 mi65 minSSE 910.00 miFair71°F66°F84%1016.7 hPa
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL22 mi68 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F55°F50%1016 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL23 mi68 minSSE 610.00 miA Few Clouds72°F55°F55%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSGJ

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW4CalmCalmSW3CalmW3SW3SW6S4NE5E10SE11SE10E11SE10SE10SE7SE7S9
1 day agoSW4CalmSW3NW4NW3NW3NW4NW3N6N5N6N6N9--NE11N9NE9NE9NE8NE8E5E6E5SE3
2 days agoSE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmE3CalmSE6SE7S8S9S8SW5W5W5N7SE9S4S3

Tide / Current Tables for Palm Valley, ICWW, Florida
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Palm Valley
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Tue -- 04:25 AM EDT     -3.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:00 AM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:52 PM EDT     -3.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 11:25 PM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.60.5-0.6-1.9-2.9-2.8-1.7-0.40.71.72.32.52.21.20-1.3-2.6-3.1-2.3-10.21.22.12.5

Tide / Current Tables for Vilano Beach Bridge, Tolomato River, Florida (2)
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Vilano Beach Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:31 AM EDT     -0.96 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:41 AM EDT     5.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:50 PM EDT     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:10 PM EDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40-0.8-0.80.11.534.35.15.34.73.520.5-0.6-1-0.312.645.15.65.34.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.