Saturday, September19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nocatee, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:26PM Saturday September 19, 2020 2:14 PM EDT (18:14 UTC) Moonrise 8:31AMMoonset 8:18PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 948 Am Edt Sat Sep 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from 4 pm edt this afternoon through Monday afternoon...
This afternoon..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Very rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 10 to 13 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Very rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 10 to 14 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Very rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 11 to 15 feet. Very rough on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 11 to 15 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 10 to 13 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 948 Am Edt Sat Sep 19 2020
Synopsis.. High pressure will strengthen to the north through Monday, then weaken toward mid week. An inverted trough of low pressure will exist over the local waters through Saturday. Dangerous boating conditions will persist into next week.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 19, 2020 at 1200 utc... 52 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 64 nautical miles east southeast of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 85 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nocatee, FL
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location: 30.02, -81.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 191755 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 155 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

AVIATION. [Through 18Z Sunday]

Slow moving showers with a a slight chance of isolated embedded thunderstorms moving from offshore over NE Florida shoreline and moving inland, crossing over SGJ and pushing towards GNV. Low ceilings along rain and mist can lead to IFR conditions for areas affected by storms with MVFR ceilings persisting overnight and into tomorrow. Showers may extend towards Duval sites in the afternoon, with NE'ly winds maintaining speeds upwards of 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20-30 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION [1032 AM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Northeast wind surge has started early this morning as High Pressure builds north of the region and light to moderate showers have developed over the Coastal Waters and have been pushing onshore at times and dissipating by the time they reach I-95. So far N-NE winds have increased into the 10-20 mph range with a few gusts to 25-30 mph at times along the coast. As pressure gradient continues to tighten today expect Northeast Winds along the coast to reach the 20-30 mph range with gusts of 40 mph possible and have posted a Wind Advisory that starts by the mid-late morning hours and continues through the entire event (through Monday). Peak wind gusts will reach the 40-50 mph range at times in heavier shower activity this afternoon and tonight along the coast. Further inland rainfall chances will be less along with lower wind speeds generally in the 10-20 mph range with peak gusts around 30 mph at times through the event, highest during the daytime hours. Abundant cloud cover will hold Max Temps generally in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees for most areas, except for a few areas across inland NE FL where some 80-85 readings will still be possible. The Northeast Wind Surge will direct the best low level convergence towards the Flagler/St Johns County areas this afternoon and evening and combined with embedded storms, this area will be under a heavy rainfall threat as described in the Hydrology section below. Shower activity and Windy conditions will persist tonight, again most frequent along the coastal areas. Despite the cloudy skies some of the drier airmass sinking southward across inland areas will allow for some lows in the 60s across inland SE GA, while most of NE FL will still lows only falling to the lower/middle 70s due to the elevated wind speeds.

SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night].

Expansive high pressure centered over New England will continue causing breezy to gusty northeasterly winds into Monday. The strongest gusts will be along the coast with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Significant coastal hazards will also continue due to high tides and persistent onshore flow. On Sunday, scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will move onshore mainly over northeast Florida. Multiple bands of rainfall may cause localized flooding over Flagler county depending on the amount of rainfall previously received on Saturday. Drier conditions are expected across inland southeast Georgia and towards the Suwannee Valley as a cool, dry air mass pushes in from the northwest. Much drier on Monday with isolated showers moving onshore to coastal northeast Florida. Fall-like temperatures begin as highs dip into the mid 70s to mid 80s and lows fall into the mid 50s to low 70s.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Friday].

Surface high pressure over New England weakens and shifts southward into the Southeast by mid-week causing the prolonged strong northeasterly flow affecting the area to subside. A cool, dry air mass will remain over the region into mid-week suppressing convection and keeping Fall-like temperatures in place. However, a few showers will move onshore over coastal northeast Florida. Tropical moisture associated with TS Beta (currently over the southwest Gulf) will advect into the region bringing a return of rain chances and normal temperatures for the end of the week.

MARINE.

NE wind surge developing early this morning and will continue to intensify this afternoon and have upgraded to a Gale Warning for all waters with mainly NE winds 20-30 knots with frequent gusts to gale force expected to last through Monday time frame for now. Seas will steadily build into the 10-15 foot range by Sun/Mon and will be slow to subside next week with Small Craft Advisories likely to replace the Gale Warning once it expires next week. Overall poor boating conditions expected through the period.

Surf/Rip Currents: Surf will build rapidly today with the strong onshore flow and High Risk of Rip Currents a slam dunk through at least Monday. High Surf Advisory has been posted as surf/breakers build to 4-8 ft today, 6-10 feet Sunday and 8-12 feet Monday.

Coastal Flood: The GFS Storm Surge Guidance and Hi-Res PETSS guidance still on track for tidal values at least 2 feet above the already higher than normal predicted tidal levels due to the current peak of the New Moon High Tide Cycle. Even if the PETSS has had a slight 0.25-0.50 ft high bias in past events, the current forecast of 2.5 to 3.5 ft MHHW (above dry ground) along the Atlc Coastal areas and 1.2 to 2.5 ft MHHW for the St Johns River Basin will lead to significant coastal/tidal flooding along with major beach erosion, so have upgraded the Coastal Flood Watch to a Warning for the Atlc Coastal Areas of NE FL/SE GA starting with tonight's high tide cycle and continuing through Monday, the St Johns River Basin south of JAX may be slightly slower to respond so have continued a Coastal Flood Advisory there through tonight and upgraded to a Coastal Flood Watch for the Sunday through Monday time frame.

HYDROLOGY.

Hi-Res models are still suggesting the threat for heavy rainfall directed at the NE FL coast this afternoon and evening, mainly south of St Augustine along the St Johns/Flagler County coastal areas with 2-3 inch rainfall totals likely with isolated 3-5 inch amounts possible if rain bands/with embedded storms become stationary this afternoon and evening. Confidence not high enough for a Flash Flood Watch at this time, but will need to be monitored for small scale Watch possibility with the next package.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 62 75 57 75 56 / 10 10 0 0 0 SSI 69 77 68 77 67 / 20 10 10 10 0 JAX 70 76 69 79 67 / 30 30 10 20 0 SGJ 76 80 73 81 70 / 60 60 20 30 10 GNV 71 79 68 82 66 / 30 30 10 10 0 OCF 73 82 70 83 67 / 40 30 10 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Monday for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for Clay-Inland Duval-Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns- Putnam.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Clay-Inland Duval-Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns-Putnam.

GA . Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Monday for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 13 mi75 min NE 23 G 26 77°F 84°F1014.8 hPa (+0.7)77°F
41117 16 mi49 min 84°F9 ft
LTJF1 25 mi57 min 78°F 74°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 26 mi90 min NE 8.9 78°F 1016 hPa76°F
JXUF1 26 mi57 min 83°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 26 mi57 min NNE 21 G 27 78°F 83°F1015.7 hPa
BLIF1 27 mi63 min N 18 G 23 78°F 1016.6 hPa78°F
DMSF1 27 mi57 min 83°F
NFDF1 29 mi57 min NNE 6 G 9.9 65°F 1015.6 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi57 min N 14 G 27 80°F 82°F1016.1 hPa
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 48 mi45 min 78°F 83°F8 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL4 mi19 minNNE 18 G 255.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy79°F75°F88%1014.6 hPa
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL22 mi82 minN 189.00 miLight Rain and Breezy76°F73°F94%1015.2 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL23 mi22 minNNE 12 G 243.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist77°F73°F88%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSGJ

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Palm Valley, ICWW, Florida
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Palm Valley
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:23 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     -3.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:48 PM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:53 PM EDT     -3.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.51.80.7-0.6-1.9-3-3-1.8-0.40.81.82.42.52.21.2-0-1.3-2.6-3.1-2.4-10.21.3

Tide / Current Tables for Vilano Beach Bridge, Tolomato River, Florida (2)
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Vilano Beach Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:22 AM EDT     -1.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:46 AM EDT     5.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:55 PM EDT     -1.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:05 PM EDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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42.60.9-0.5-1.3-1.1-0.11.42.94.255.24.73.51.90.3-0.8-1.2-0.60.72.13.54.54.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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