Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mexico Beach, FL

NEAR TERM
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms across Mississippi currently will continue moving eastward are expected to weaken rapidly as they approach our area. High convective inhibition with surface high pressure in place will prevent this system from persisting through the region, according to all the latest guidance.
Overnight another round of fog is expected across the FL Panhandle and SE Alabama.

Tomorrow weather will be primarily driven by diurnal mechanisms such as buoyancy and the sea breeze. Current guidance expects there to be a convergence zone along the FL/AL state line late tomorrow afternoon and early evening for storms to fire off of.
Showers and/or storms are expected to wind down after sunset.

Expect overnight lows generally in the 60s with daytime highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

An upper level ridge will begin to flatten during the day Sunday.
A weak cold front will be passing through the region on Sunday.
Along the front, there is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours. PoPs range from 20 to 30 percent for Sunday afternoon and evening. The location of thunderstorm development will likely be where the cold front and the afternoon sea breeze collide. At this time, it looks like it'll be along and north of I-10 and towards the I-75 corridor. Severe storms are not anticipated. Temperatures on Sunday will be well above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

During the week, upper level ridging will build in from the Gulf.
This is expected to hold steady through the week. The high pressure will limit coverage for showers and thunderstorms to around 20 percent and less. PWATs will be around 1.5" with decent instability of 500-1200 J/Kg during the afternoon hours. Shear is low around 20 kts, and the high pressure will limit forcing and capping lift. Even though the parameters are there, the warm and dry mid-levels will keep PoPs near zero for most of the week. By Thursday, the ridge will begin to retreat, and an upper level trough will be approaching the region. This will bring in some westerly flow aloft and cool the mid and upper level temperatures, weakening the cap. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be able to develop again. Temperatures will be warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid-60s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

High clouds will stream over the TAF sites this evening from a weakening thunderstorm complex to our west. Skies clear later tonight, allowing some fog to form over the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama. The highest confidence is at ECP with DHN and TLH on the fringe. This will bring IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility. VFR conditions are anticipated Saturday as a light to moderate southwesterly to westerly breeze develops.

MARINE
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

High pressure will build over the weekend into next week. During the weekend, expect the afternoon seabreeze to pick up along the coast. For next week, expect light to gentle breezes with seas mainly around 1 foot.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

The main fire weather highlights continue to revolve around daily chances for morning fog, pockets of high afternoon dispersions, and unseasonably hot conditions with a diurnal seabreeze.
Southerly low-level winds keep min RH above critical thresholds, or 35-40% away from the immediate coast. Winds turn more southwesterly on Saturday, then switch out of the NE mainly north of the FL state line.

Expect hot weather this weekend as forecast inland high temperatures soar to the upper 80s/low 90s. Sunday is shaping up to be even hotter with more widespread low 90s (isolated mid 90s).
A backdoor front sagging south may provide some relief via modest increases in cloud cover and rain chances. The best potential for precipitation and/or thunderstorms is along the I-75 corridor where the front likely interacts favorably with the seabreeze(s).
High dispersions are forecast that afternoon along/north of the I-10 corridor.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

No flooding is expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 64 91 65 93 / 0 10 10 10 Panama City 66 84 67 86 / 0 10 10 10 Dothan 64 89 65 91 / 10 20 10 20 Albany 65 89 65 91 / 10 10 10 20 Valdosta 66 91 67 93 / 0 10 10 20 Cross City 62 89 61 91 / 0 10 10 10 Apalachicola 66 81 66 82 / 0 10 10 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Saturday for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ735.