Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mexico Beach, FL
November 30, 2023 12:35 AM CST (06:35 UTC)
Sunrise 6:19AM Sunset 4:43PM Moonrise 8:38PM Moonset 10:32AM
GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 621 Pm Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 721 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis..
high pressure across the northeastern gulf of mexico provides favorable marine conditions through Thursday afternoon. The surface high pushes away from the region as winds turn more easterly to southeasterly Thursday afternoon. Cautionary to borderline advisory level winds look likely across marine zones west of the mouth of the apalachicola river starting Thursday night as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. Rain and Thunderstorm chances return Friday and linger into the weekend.
Synopsis..
high pressure across the northeastern gulf of mexico provides favorable marine conditions through Thursday afternoon. The surface high pushes away from the region as winds turn more easterly to southeasterly Thursday afternoon. Cautionary to borderline advisory level winds look likely across marine zones west of the mouth of the apalachicola river starting Thursday night as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. Rain and Thunderstorm chances return Friday and linger into the weekend.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KTAE 300531 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1231 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 710 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
Temperatures were slightly adjusted to account for urban heat island effects through the overnight hours at TLH and a few other cities tonight. A Frost Advisory was also added for the coastal strip once again tonight as it looks like frost is possible once again for these areas. RH's look to climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s, winds look to go near calm, and temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 30s, which is cold enough for frost to develop across the aforementioned regions. Outside of these changes, there were no other updates made to the forecast.
NEAR TERM
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
Surface high pressure translates east over the region this evening and Thursday morning and with mostly clear skies and calm winds, another good night of radiational cooling is anticipated. While upper level cirrus streaming into the region ahead of our next system could allow slightly warmer conditions tonight, especially across the Panhandle and Alabama, we have left forecast low temperatures tonight largely similar to this mornings observations.
Thus, with similar temperatures expected, have kept the freeze warning in place for the overnight hours.
For Thursday afternoon, upper level clouds will continue to increase and as flow becomes easterly/southeasterly, expect warmer afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 60s. With increased cloud cover and warmer easterly flow, overnight lows Thursday night into Friday morning should climb 15 to 20 above what will be observed on Thursday morning.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
Warmer and wetter, maybe even stormy, weather is on the way as we turn the calendar to December.
An H5 trough will be in the process of ejecting out of northern Texas and into the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday. A cold front is forecast to trudge eastward Friday into Friday night as a surface low races from northern Texas towards the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, a warm front is expected to lift north from the Gulf of Mexico during the day Friday, turning our winds more southeasterly throughout the day. This opens the door for temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 70s Friday afternoon.
With the region getting into the warm sector between the warm front to the north and the cold front to the west, there should be enough instability to include the mention for a slight chance of thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms are possible during the day Friday as indicated by the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) over the western Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama. This is thanks to the combination of a 25 to 30 knot low-level jet (LLJ) and robust deep-layer shear. Strong to damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat with the potential for a tornado or two not totally ruled out. A few limiting factors include the upper-level support passing well northwest of our area and just how destabilized we can get Friday afternoon. The cold front mentioned above is forecast to slow down Friday night, which introduces the potential for nuisance flooding due to rain potentially rolling over the same areas over and over again, or training showers. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) in place over much of the region Friday into Friday night.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
The cold front mentioned in the short term will be having a tough time moving through the region this weekend. As a result, more showers, maybe even a few thunderstorms, remain possible through the weekend and into Monday. The cold front finally gets pushed through the area Sunday night into Monday, helping to send temperatures back below normal by the middle of next week.
The combination of a strengthening H5 ridge over Cuba and a trough of low pressure across the middle of the country means the cold front from Friday won't be in much of a hurry to push through the area. Ample moisture, as depicted by precipitable water values (PWATs) in excess of 1.7" to 1.9", or above the 90th percentile for the beginning of December, and a slow-moving cold front could lead to the potential for additional nuisance flooding concerns Saturday and Sunday. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) is outlined by WPC for all but the southeastern Florida Big Bend region for Saturday.
Instability is forecast to be about the same on Saturday as it is Friday, which means an isolated strong storm cannot be completely ruled out at this time. Lower instability values are forecast for Sunday, lessening the chance for strong storms.
The cold front finally clears the area Sunday night into early Monday morning, taking the rain and clouds along with it.
Temperatures are forecast to be near to slightly above normal, or in and around 70, Monday before dropping into the lower to middle 60s for highs on Tuesday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
With calm winds as high pressure is overhead, ECP has developed localized low cigs and vsbys down to LIFR/VLIFR. Will keep these in the TAF for the next few hours as model guidance is struggling detecting the lowered flight conditions. As high pressure slides east overnight, a light wind may develop and help scatter the low clouds. Otherwise, expect VFR conds to continue through the period at the other sites.
MARINE
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
High pressure across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico provides favorable marine conditions through Thursday afternoon. The surface high pushes away from the region as winds turn more easterly to southeasterly Thursday afternoon. Cautionary levels are likely needed Thursday night through at least Friday as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. Rain and thunderstorm chances return Friday and linger into the weekend.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
Aside from low dispersions on Thursday, fire weather concerns will be low through the rest of the week and upcoming weekend. Winds become easterly through the rest of the week with increasing moisture into the weekend. High chance of wetting rains are expected this weekend across much of the area, especially west of the Apalachicola/Flint Rivers.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
A wetter pattern is expected to take shape as we head into the first couple days of December. Forecast rainfall amounts between Friday morning and next Monday are generally in the 2" to 4" range (isolated 5"+) with slightly lower amounts in the southeastern FL Big Bend. Localized flooding will be a concern, especially for more urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas, due to the potential for multiple waves of rainfall between Friday and Monday. Given the ongoing drought conditions across much of the Tri-State area, significant flooding is not expected at this time. Local river levels also continue to run very low. Dry weather arrives by Tuesday.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 52 73 64 73 / 20 50 70 70 Panama City 55 73 65 74 / 30 80 80 80 Dothan 47 71 62 71 / 40 80 70 90 Albany 47 71 61 71 / 20 60 70 90 Valdosta 50 74 62 73 / 10 40 60 70 Cross City 55 77 63 78 / 10 30 40 40 Apalachicola 57 73 65 73 / 20 60 70 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>013-016>019-026>029-034.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ014- 015-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161.
AL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST Thursday for ALZ065>069.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1231 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 710 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
Temperatures were slightly adjusted to account for urban heat island effects through the overnight hours at TLH and a few other cities tonight. A Frost Advisory was also added for the coastal strip once again tonight as it looks like frost is possible once again for these areas. RH's look to climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s, winds look to go near calm, and temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 30s, which is cold enough for frost to develop across the aforementioned regions. Outside of these changes, there were no other updates made to the forecast.
NEAR TERM
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
Surface high pressure translates east over the region this evening and Thursday morning and with mostly clear skies and calm winds, another good night of radiational cooling is anticipated. While upper level cirrus streaming into the region ahead of our next system could allow slightly warmer conditions tonight, especially across the Panhandle and Alabama, we have left forecast low temperatures tonight largely similar to this mornings observations.
Thus, with similar temperatures expected, have kept the freeze warning in place for the overnight hours.
For Thursday afternoon, upper level clouds will continue to increase and as flow becomes easterly/southeasterly, expect warmer afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 60s. With increased cloud cover and warmer easterly flow, overnight lows Thursday night into Friday morning should climb 15 to 20 above what will be observed on Thursday morning.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
Warmer and wetter, maybe even stormy, weather is on the way as we turn the calendar to December.
An H5 trough will be in the process of ejecting out of northern Texas and into the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday. A cold front is forecast to trudge eastward Friday into Friday night as a surface low races from northern Texas towards the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, a warm front is expected to lift north from the Gulf of Mexico during the day Friday, turning our winds more southeasterly throughout the day. This opens the door for temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 70s Friday afternoon.
With the region getting into the warm sector between the warm front to the north and the cold front to the west, there should be enough instability to include the mention for a slight chance of thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms are possible during the day Friday as indicated by the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) over the western Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama. This is thanks to the combination of a 25 to 30 knot low-level jet (LLJ) and robust deep-layer shear. Strong to damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat with the potential for a tornado or two not totally ruled out. A few limiting factors include the upper-level support passing well northwest of our area and just how destabilized we can get Friday afternoon. The cold front mentioned above is forecast to slow down Friday night, which introduces the potential for nuisance flooding due to rain potentially rolling over the same areas over and over again, or training showers. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) in place over much of the region Friday into Friday night.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
The cold front mentioned in the short term will be having a tough time moving through the region this weekend. As a result, more showers, maybe even a few thunderstorms, remain possible through the weekend and into Monday. The cold front finally gets pushed through the area Sunday night into Monday, helping to send temperatures back below normal by the middle of next week.
The combination of a strengthening H5 ridge over Cuba and a trough of low pressure across the middle of the country means the cold front from Friday won't be in much of a hurry to push through the area. Ample moisture, as depicted by precipitable water values (PWATs) in excess of 1.7" to 1.9", or above the 90th percentile for the beginning of December, and a slow-moving cold front could lead to the potential for additional nuisance flooding concerns Saturday and Sunday. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) is outlined by WPC for all but the southeastern Florida Big Bend region for Saturday.
Instability is forecast to be about the same on Saturday as it is Friday, which means an isolated strong storm cannot be completely ruled out at this time. Lower instability values are forecast for Sunday, lessening the chance for strong storms.
The cold front finally clears the area Sunday night into early Monday morning, taking the rain and clouds along with it.
Temperatures are forecast to be near to slightly above normal, or in and around 70, Monday before dropping into the lower to middle 60s for highs on Tuesday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
With calm winds as high pressure is overhead, ECP has developed localized low cigs and vsbys down to LIFR/VLIFR. Will keep these in the TAF for the next few hours as model guidance is struggling detecting the lowered flight conditions. As high pressure slides east overnight, a light wind may develop and help scatter the low clouds. Otherwise, expect VFR conds to continue through the period at the other sites.
MARINE
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
High pressure across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico provides favorable marine conditions through Thursday afternoon. The surface high pushes away from the region as winds turn more easterly to southeasterly Thursday afternoon. Cautionary levels are likely needed Thursday night through at least Friday as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. Rain and thunderstorm chances return Friday and linger into the weekend.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
Aside from low dispersions on Thursday, fire weather concerns will be low through the rest of the week and upcoming weekend. Winds become easterly through the rest of the week with increasing moisture into the weekend. High chance of wetting rains are expected this weekend across much of the area, especially west of the Apalachicola/Flint Rivers.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 335 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
A wetter pattern is expected to take shape as we head into the first couple days of December. Forecast rainfall amounts between Friday morning and next Monday are generally in the 2" to 4" range (isolated 5"+) with slightly lower amounts in the southeastern FL Big Bend. Localized flooding will be a concern, especially for more urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas, due to the potential for multiple waves of rainfall between Friday and Monday. Given the ongoing drought conditions across much of the Tri-State area, significant flooding is not expected at this time. Local river levels also continue to run very low. Dry weather arrives by Tuesday.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 52 73 64 73 / 20 50 70 70 Panama City 55 73 65 74 / 30 80 80 80 Dothan 47 71 62 71 / 40 80 70 90 Albany 47 71 61 71 / 20 60 70 90 Valdosta 50 74 62 73 / 10 40 60 70 Cross City 55 77 63 78 / 10 30 40 40 Apalachicola 57 73 65 73 / 20 60 70 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>013-016>019-026>029-034.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ014- 015-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161.
AL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST Thursday for ALZ065>069.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL | 13 mi | 48 min | NE 4.1G | 66°F | ||||
| PCBF1 | 25 mi | 48 min | NE 4.1G | 45°F | 65°F | 30.20 | ||
| APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL | 33 mi | 48 min | NNE 5.1G | 46°F | 61°F | 30.21 | ||
| APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL | 36 mi | 36 min | E 1.9 | 44°F | 30.24 | 32°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPAM TYNDALL AFB,FL | 6 sm | 40 min | ENE 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 30°F | 53% | 30.20 | |
Wind History from PAM
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Farmdale, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Farmdale
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:18 AM CST Sunrise
Wed -- 08:39 AM CST Moonset
Wed -- 11:19 AM CST -0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:41 PM CST Sunset
Wed -- 06:39 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:18 AM CST Sunrise
Wed -- 08:39 AM CST Moonset
Wed -- 11:19 AM CST -0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:41 PM CST Sunset
Wed -- 06:39 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Farmdale, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0.4 |
| 10 am |
| -0.6 |
| 11 am |
| -0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.9 |
Laird Bayou
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:18 AM CST Sunrise
Wed -- 08:40 AM CST Moonset
Wed -- 11:04 AM CST -0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:41 PM CST Sunset
Wed -- 06:39 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:18 AM CST Sunrise
Wed -- 08:40 AM CST Moonset
Wed -- 11:04 AM CST -0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:41 PM CST Sunset
Wed -- 06:39 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0 |
| 8 am |
| -0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0.5 |
| 10 am |
| -0.6 |
| 11 am |
| -0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Northwest Florida,
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