Saturday, February29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 5:41PM Friday February 28, 2020 11:37 PM CST (05:37 UTC) Moonrise 10:03AMMoonset 11:10PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 749 Pm Est Fri Feb 28 2020 /649 Pm Cst Fri Feb 28 2020/
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..North winds 10 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday and Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..South winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 20 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 749 Pm Est Fri Feb 28 2020
Synopsis.. Winds will increase out of the west and then shift to northwest as a trough passes across the marine area. This will bring a period of advisory level winds and seas tonight into Saturday morning. Winds will become elevated again Monday night with the approach of the next storm system, and remain elevated into at least Wednesday night. A period of small craft advisory level conditions is likely during this time frame.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico Beach, FL
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location: 30.03, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 290046 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 746 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

UPDATE.

Forecast remains on track, no changes have been made.

PREV DISCUSSION [629 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Tonight through Saturday].

There are no weather concerns during this period with a dry stretch of weather in store. A shortwave and associated surface trough transiting the northwest flow aloft will lead to a period of mid- level clouds overnight, but these will exit in time for a sunny Saturday. Northwest winds will gust up to 20 mph during the afternoon. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s will rebound into the upper 50s north to mid 60s south, which is a few degrees below seasonal levels.

SHORT TERM [Saturday night through Sunday night].

The upper level pattern will deamplify across the eastern U.S. during this period with temporary zonal flow in place across the Gulf Coast. Surface high pressure will build from the northern Gulf of Mexico to off the Southeast Coast during this time. These pattern changes will lead to moderating temperatures. However, not before we see min temps drop into the mid to upper 30s inland Sunday morning. Some of our Georgia and eastern Big Bend counties could see some patchy frost. Sunday's highs will be only a few degrees shy of normal, mainly in the mid 60s. Lows Sunday night will be mainly in the 40s.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday].

There is still a lot of uncertainty with respect to the system that will impact the area next week. A union of favorable severe weather parameters (shear, CAPE, etc.) exist in the last couple of runs of the GFS from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. In the Euro, the threat window appears to be Wednesday into early Thursday. For now, we show highest PoPs (likely) on Wednesday. We will need to wait for more consensus to develop in the models before we can begin to try to pin down timing and the degree of severe weather threat. One things that is more certain is that temperatures will warm back to above seasonal levels.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Sunday]

VFR conditions prevail overnight. A cold front sliding through tonight will bring passing upper level clouds and also keep northwest winds up overnight around 5 to 10 knots. Breezy conditions continue into Saturday.

MARINE.

Winds will increase out of the west and then shift to northwest as a trough passes across the marine area. This will bring a period of advisory level winds and seas tonight into Saturday morning. Winds will become elevated again Monday Night with the approach of the next storm system, and remain elevated into at least Wednesday night. A period of Small Craft Advisory level conditions is likely during this time frame.

FIRE WEATHER.

Dry conditions continue through the next two days. While red flag conditions are not expected due to fuels, fire weather concerns will be slightly elevated. Another cold front is expected to pass through the area on Saturday bringing an increase in northwest winds to around 10 to 20 mph with occasional gusts up to 25mph, especially over our Georgia zones, in the afternoon. Moisture returns at the beginning of the week, but rain chances likely hold off until the middle of next week.

High dispersion indices are expected once again on Saturday.

HYDROLOGY.

Dry conditions are expected through early next week, which will give the rivers a brief period to lower their levels ahead of the next system during the middle of the work week. Rainfall from this system around one inch is possible near the Flint Basin, with moderate confidence.

Flood warnings remain in effect for the Apalachicola at Blountstown until further notice, and the Flint River at Newton and Bainbridge until Saturday evening and into Sunday night, respectively.

For detailed information on specific river stages and forecasts, please visit https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 38 65 37 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 44 63 46 67 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 39 61 37 66 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 39 60 35 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 39 63 34 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 37 64 36 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 44 64 46 64 52 / 0 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for Coastal Gulf.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ Saturday for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.



UPDATE . DiCatarina NEAR TERM . LF SHORT TERM . Wool/CAD LONG TERM . Wool/CAD AVIATION . Dobbs MARINE . Wool FIRE WEATHER . Dobbs HYDROLOGY . LF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 13 mi49 min WNW 13 G 18
PCBF1 25 mi49 min WNW 14 G 19 56°F 62°F1024.9 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 33 mi49 min W 5.1 G 8 57°F 59°F1024.1 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 35 mi112 min WNW 8.9 1025 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL7 mi1.7 hrsWNW 1910.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy59°F46°F63%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAM

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NW8N5N4N3N3N4N4NW5NW10NW10W9----W12W12W17
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2 days agoNW7W4CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3N4N5NW4N10N12NW16NW17N11N4NW10NW9NW14N14N9NW8N10NW14

Tide / Current Tables for Allanton, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Laird Bayou
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:35 AM CST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:08 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:34 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:11 PM CST     0.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:40 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:04 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.40.40.50.60.60.70.80.80.90.90.80.70.60.50.30.20.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.