Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mexico Beach, FL
December 7, 2023 6:25 AM CST (12:25 UTC)
Sunrise 6:24AM Sunset 4:43PM Moonrise 2:12AM Moonset 2:16PM
GMZ750 Expires:202312072115;;042019 Fzus52 Ktae 070815 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida big bend and eastern panhandle national weather service tallahassee fl 315 am est Thu dec 7 2023
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-072115- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 315 am est Thu dec 7 2023 /215 am cst Thu dec 7 2023/
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds after midnight. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sunday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters rough. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters rough. A chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for florida big bend and eastern panhandle national weather service tallahassee fl 315 am est Thu dec 7 2023
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-072115- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 315 am est Thu dec 7 2023 /215 am cst Thu dec 7 2023/
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds after midnight. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sunday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters rough. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters rough. A chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 315 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..
surface high pressure across the region will keep mostly favorable marine conditions in the forecast through Friday as winds turn more easterly to southeasterly through Saturday. An incoming cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms before turning the winds more out of the northwest late Saturday night through Sunday, with advisory conditions expected Sunday into Sunday night. While not explicitly forecast, gale conditions cannot be completely ruled out for Sunday.
Synopsis..
surface high pressure across the region will keep mostly favorable marine conditions in the forecast through Friday as winds turn more easterly to southeasterly through Saturday. An incoming cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms before turning the winds more out of the northwest late Saturday night through Sunday, with advisory conditions expected Sunday into Sunday night. While not explicitly forecast, gale conditions cannot be completely ruled out for Sunday.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KTAE 071122 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 622 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
High pressure overhead has allowed temperatures to drop into the 30s for much of the region so far, with with a few areas still clinging to the upper 30s to near 40. Winds are forecast to remain light or calm and with clear skies holding, temps should drop some over the next few hours. Lows for this morning will generally be in the low to mid 30s for SE AL and SW GA, with perhaps a colder pocket of the upper 20s being possible between and along the Chattahoochee and Flint Rivers. At the coast, temps will be in the upper 30s to near 40, while the FL Panhandle temps drop to the low to mid 30s and the Big Bend bottoms out in the mid to upper 30s. Frost is expected for much of the area, with the coastal zones remaining under a Frost Advisory until 7AM CT / 8AM ET.
After that, we can expect a cool and partly to mostly sunny December day. Highs are expected to peak in the upper 50s to low 60s in our SW GA and SE AL counties and in the low to mid 60s for the FL counties. Tonight, low temperatures will be improved compared today's as the range from the upper 30s and low 40s in our AL and GA counties, and in the low to mid 40s for the FL counties. |
SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
We'll be stuck between an H5 ridge over the Caribbean and a trough digging into the Rockies, which means southwesterly flow aloft through much of the period. A few perturbations within the southwesterly flow are forecast to roll over the region.
Southeasterly to southerly flow at the surface will increase moisture enough to possible squeeze out a couple of showers in the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama Friday night into Saturday as the perturbations move overhead.
Rain chances are forecast to increase Saturday night as the H5 trough and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley.
Bulk shear values values between 40 to 50 knots are expected Saturday night as a low-level jet at 850mb strengthens over the region. Instability appears to be lacking, with MUCAPE values generally below 500 J/kg for much of the area with higher values just west of the region. Therefore, have included a slight chance for thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday night.
Temperatures are forecast to climb from near normal Friday, or middle to upper 60s, to the middle 70s Saturday afternoon. Overnight temperatures will also be on the increase thanks to southerly flow with lows in the 50s Friday night and the lower 60s Saturday night ahead of the cold front.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
The aforementioned H5 trough continues to push east as it attempts to become a little more neutrally tilted. At the surface, a cold front will be moving through the southeast, which will be the main focus for showers and storms on Sunday. The severity of the storms remains very much in question, but a strengthening low-level jet at 850mb to 30 to 40 knots, MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg, and bulk shear values between 35 to 45 knots means an isolated strong storm or two cannot be totally ruled out. This event is a couple of days away, so we'll closely monitor the trends over the next couple of days.
With regards to rain, generally 0.5" to 2.0" of rain is expected with locally higher amounts possible. Precipitable water values (PWATs) are forecast to be above the 90th percentile for mid- December, or between 1.5" to 1.8", so locally heavy rain is possible as the line of showers and storms heads east. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained Saturday's Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for Excessive Rainfall across southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and the entire area for Sunday.
Clouds and rain, maybe a few storms, help keep temperatures generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday afternoon as a cold front sweeps through the region. Following the cold front, overnight lows are forecast to tumble into the 30s Sunday night and Monday night before moderating as we head into next week. Daytime highs next week will follow a similar warming trend with middle 50s expected Monday afternoon, upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday, and 60s Wednesday.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
Calm winds this morning will become light and easterly this morning. By the afternoon winds become south or southeasterly before going calm overnight. VFR conditions prevail.
MARINE
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
Surface high pressure across the region will keep mostly favorable marine conditions in the forecast through Friday as winds turn more easterly to southeasterly through Saturday. An incoming cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms before turning the winds more out of the northwest late Saturday night through Sunday, with advisory conditions expected Sunday into Sunday night. While not explicitly forecast, Gale conditions cannot be completely ruled out for Sunday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
The main fire weather concern will be area wide low dispersions today and tomorrow. High pressure exits the region Friday, allowing for a brief change in the weather pattern. Wetting rain is forecast over the weekend, with dry weather returning around the start of the work week.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
The Aucilla River at Lamont remains in Minor Flood stage, but is forecast drop into Action stage later today.
A cold front is forecast to swing through the region late Saturday night into Sunday with 0.5" to 2" expected for much of the region.
Fortunately, this system is expected to move through here quickly, so flooding concerns remain low at this time. However, locally heavy rain remains possible and may result in nuisance flooding in more urban or low-lying areas.
While no riverine flooding is anticipated, some of the rivers remaining in action stage could rise back into minor flood stage depending on where the heaviest rain falls, which is still uncertain at this time.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 62 43 66 57 / 0 0 10 20 Panama City 61 48 67 60 / 0 0 20 40 Dothan 59 40 64 54 / 0 0 10 40 Albany 59 38 65 53 / 0 0 10 20 Valdosta 61 42 67 54 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 66 46 72 57 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 60 51 67 61 / 0 0 20 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ108- 112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 622 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
High pressure overhead has allowed temperatures to drop into the 30s for much of the region so far, with with a few areas still clinging to the upper 30s to near 40. Winds are forecast to remain light or calm and with clear skies holding, temps should drop some over the next few hours. Lows for this morning will generally be in the low to mid 30s for SE AL and SW GA, with perhaps a colder pocket of the upper 20s being possible between and along the Chattahoochee and Flint Rivers. At the coast, temps will be in the upper 30s to near 40, while the FL Panhandle temps drop to the low to mid 30s and the Big Bend bottoms out in the mid to upper 30s. Frost is expected for much of the area, with the coastal zones remaining under a Frost Advisory until 7AM CT / 8AM ET.
After that, we can expect a cool and partly to mostly sunny December day. Highs are expected to peak in the upper 50s to low 60s in our SW GA and SE AL counties and in the low to mid 60s for the FL counties. Tonight, low temperatures will be improved compared today's as the range from the upper 30s and low 40s in our AL and GA counties, and in the low to mid 40s for the FL counties. |
SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
We'll be stuck between an H5 ridge over the Caribbean and a trough digging into the Rockies, which means southwesterly flow aloft through much of the period. A few perturbations within the southwesterly flow are forecast to roll over the region.
Southeasterly to southerly flow at the surface will increase moisture enough to possible squeeze out a couple of showers in the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama Friday night into Saturday as the perturbations move overhead.
Rain chances are forecast to increase Saturday night as the H5 trough and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley.
Bulk shear values values between 40 to 50 knots are expected Saturday night as a low-level jet at 850mb strengthens over the region. Instability appears to be lacking, with MUCAPE values generally below 500 J/kg for much of the area with higher values just west of the region. Therefore, have included a slight chance for thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday night.
Temperatures are forecast to climb from near normal Friday, or middle to upper 60s, to the middle 70s Saturday afternoon. Overnight temperatures will also be on the increase thanks to southerly flow with lows in the 50s Friday night and the lower 60s Saturday night ahead of the cold front.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
The aforementioned H5 trough continues to push east as it attempts to become a little more neutrally tilted. At the surface, a cold front will be moving through the southeast, which will be the main focus for showers and storms on Sunday. The severity of the storms remains very much in question, but a strengthening low-level jet at 850mb to 30 to 40 knots, MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg, and bulk shear values between 35 to 45 knots means an isolated strong storm or two cannot be totally ruled out. This event is a couple of days away, so we'll closely monitor the trends over the next couple of days.
With regards to rain, generally 0.5" to 2.0" of rain is expected with locally higher amounts possible. Precipitable water values (PWATs) are forecast to be above the 90th percentile for mid- December, or between 1.5" to 1.8", so locally heavy rain is possible as the line of showers and storms heads east. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained Saturday's Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for Excessive Rainfall across southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and the entire area for Sunday.
Clouds and rain, maybe a few storms, help keep temperatures generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday afternoon as a cold front sweeps through the region. Following the cold front, overnight lows are forecast to tumble into the 30s Sunday night and Monday night before moderating as we head into next week. Daytime highs next week will follow a similar warming trend with middle 50s expected Monday afternoon, upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday, and 60s Wednesday.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
Calm winds this morning will become light and easterly this morning. By the afternoon winds become south or southeasterly before going calm overnight. VFR conditions prevail.
MARINE
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
Surface high pressure across the region will keep mostly favorable marine conditions in the forecast through Friday as winds turn more easterly to southeasterly through Saturday. An incoming cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms before turning the winds more out of the northwest late Saturday night through Sunday, with advisory conditions expected Sunday into Sunday night. While not explicitly forecast, Gale conditions cannot be completely ruled out for Sunday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
The main fire weather concern will be area wide low dispersions today and tomorrow. High pressure exits the region Friday, allowing for a brief change in the weather pattern. Wetting rain is forecast over the weekend, with dry weather returning around the start of the work week.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
The Aucilla River at Lamont remains in Minor Flood stage, but is forecast drop into Action stage later today.
A cold front is forecast to swing through the region late Saturday night into Sunday with 0.5" to 2" expected for much of the region.
Fortunately, this system is expected to move through here quickly, so flooding concerns remain low at this time. However, locally heavy rain remains possible and may result in nuisance flooding in more urban or low-lying areas.
While no riverine flooding is anticipated, some of the rivers remaining in action stage could rise back into minor flood stage depending on where the heaviest rain falls, which is still uncertain at this time.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 62 43 66 57 / 0 0 10 20 Panama City 61 48 67 60 / 0 0 20 40 Dothan 59 40 64 54 / 0 0 10 40 Albany 59 38 65 53 / 0 0 10 20 Valdosta 61 42 67 54 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 66 46 72 57 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 60 51 67 61 / 0 0 20 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ108- 112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL | 13 mi | 68 min | NE 6G | 58°F | ||||
| PCBF1 | 25 mi | 68 min | ENE 6G | 45°F | 63°F | 30.27 | ||
| APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL | 33 mi | 68 min | NNE 6G | 44°F | 61°F | 30.28 | ||
| APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL | 36 mi | 86 min | NE 8.9 | 45°F | 30.33 | 40°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPAM TYNDALL AFB,FL | 6 sm | 30 min | ENE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 43°F | 36°F | 76% | 30.28 | |
Wind History from PAM
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Allanton, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Allanton, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
Laird Bayou
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:12 AM CST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:25 AM CST Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM CST 0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:16 PM CST Moonset
Thu -- 04:41 PM CST Sunset
Thu -- 08:41 PM CST 0.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:12 AM CST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:25 AM CST Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM CST 0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:16 PM CST Moonset
Thu -- 04:41 PM CST Sunset
Thu -- 08:41 PM CST 0.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.4 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Northwest Florida,
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