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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 334 Am Cst Sun Dec 3 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst this morning...
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west early. Waves around 2 feet this morning, then 1 foot or less. Widespread dense fog early this morning.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.

GMZ500 334 Am Cst Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
a cold front continues to very slowly drift further into the area with onshore flow remaining in place in advance of the front. A marine dense fog advisory is in effect through mid-morning as dense fog persists over the waters. A cold front will move through by later today allowing high pressure to finally build over the northern gulf for the start of the new week.

FXUS64 KLIX 030929 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 329 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 238 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

In the immediate term, areas of dense fog will persist over the nearshore waters, sounds, and tidal lakes through mid-morning.
By late morning, increasing northwest flow will allow for greater boundary layer mixing, and this will allow for the fog to lift into a low cloud deck for the remainder of the day. Temperatures will remain fairly mild in the upper 60s and lower 70s today as limited cold air advection takes hold behind the weak frontal boundary. This limited cold air advection is quite evident when looking at sounding data which shows only a 1C decrease in 925mb temperatures over the next 12 hours. By tonight, increased cold air advection will finally take hold as an upper level trough axis and reinforcing front slide through the forecast area. This will allow temperatures to dip into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Tomorrow will see a surface high begin to build in from the northwest, and some weak cold air advection will take hold.
Daytime highs will only warm into the low to mid 60s as this slightly cooler airmass moves in. In the mid and upper levels, a largely zonal flow regime will remain in place. This westerly flow pattern aloft will keep some mid to high level cloud cover in place, and this cloud cover will play a role in limiting the amount of cooling that occurs tomorrow night. Have opted to go with the higher end of the guidance spectrum for low temperatures tomorrow night, and this keeps readings in the upper 30s and lower 40s as cloud cover and slightly stronger winds limit the amount of radiational cooling that occurs. Tuesday will be largely the same as Monday, but winds should be somewhat lighter as the surface high becomes more centered over the region.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 238 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

The combination of deep layer northerly flow and increasing negative vorticity advection associated with a passing shortwave ridge axis on Wednesday and Thursday will keep skies clear and temperatures cooler than average. The cooler airmass moving in from the north will only allow highs to warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s on Wednesday despite strong solar insolation, and strong radiational cooling Wednesday night will push overnight lows into the mid 30s over inland areas and the lower 40s along the immediate coast and across the Southshore. Some moderation is expected by Thursday as the 925mb thermal trough axis begins to shift to the east, and highs will be near average in the low to mid 60s.

By Friday, the surface high will shift well east of the area and this will allow for increasing southerly and eventually southwesterly flow to develop. This southwesterly flow will intensify Friday night in advance of another northern stream trough axis digging into the Plains states. The primary impact from this increasing onshore flow will be to advect in a warmer and more moist airmass. Initially, conditions will remain quite dry on Friday with limited moisture return, but highs will be warmer in the upper 60s and lower 70s as the southwesterly flow advects in an airmass from south Texas and the western Gulf.
Friday night will see a sharp increase in mid and upper level moisture, and this will push precipitable water values over an inch. As dewpoints increase into the 50s, overnight lows will also be warmer in the mid to upper 50s.

On Saturday, all of the global models indicate that the northern stream trough axis and attendant cold front will sweep through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection into the region will continue in advance of this trough and front with precipitable water values approaching 1.25 inches by Saturday afternoon. This moisture will interact with a highly difluent upper level pattern and strong deep layer forcing to induce a line of showers and storms in advance of the front Saturday afternoon. This line of showers and storms is expected to sweep through the forecast area sometime from late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, and have PoP of 40 to 50 percent forecast for this time period.
Sounding profiles indicate a marginally favorable setup for strong to possibly severe storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening when speed shear is maximized. However, it is far too early to determine if severe weather will happen and what type of convective mode could be expected. Have largely stuck with the NBM in terms of PoP and temperatures for Saturday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 238 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

IFR/LIFR CIGS are prevailing at all terminals with intermittent periods of dense fog impacting VIS at MSY, GPT, HUM, ASD, and NEW.
These conditions are expected to persist overnight before gradually improving after daybreak this morning. Light southwesterly winds will gradually become more northwesterly overnight and into late Sunday morning which will allow drier air to gradually mix in and reduce CIG/VIS concerns. Thereafter, improvements to VFR through afternoon are expected with scattered to broken high clouds.

MARINE
Issued at 238 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Dense fog currently impacting portions of the coastal waters will persist through mid-morning before clearing as winds shift to the northwest and start to mix in some drier air from aloft. These winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist through Monday night as cooler air advects into the area. On Tuesday, high pressure will become more centered over the region, and this will allow the wind field to ease to 10 knots or less for a brief period. However, this high will quickly shift east Tuesday night as a stronger front sweeps through the waters. A much colder airmass will move in and this could increase northerly winds to between 15 and 20 knots through Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon and Friday, winds will shift back to a more onshore component as high pressure passes to the north of the waters. Winds will also fall back to around 10 knots as the pressure gradient eases and seas will drop to 2 to 3 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 69 47 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 69 49 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 69 50 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 68 53 65 48 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 68 52 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 69 51 68 40 / 10 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ064-069- 070-076>078-087-089-090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Sun -- 06:07 AM CST     1.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:39 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:46 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:59 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:29 PM CST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:49 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Beach
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Sun -- 05:20 AM CST     1.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:45 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:58 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:31 PM CST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:48 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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