Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fruit Cove, FL

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches through Thursday.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers along the I-95 corridor this morning shift inland this afternoon, with a few thunderstorms possible along the I-75 corridor late this afternoon.

Overnight surface analysis depicts a weak inverted surface trough extending across the east central and northeast FL coastal waters, with this feature moving slowly westward.
Meanwhile, slowly weakening Atlantic high pressure (1024 millibars) was now centered near Bermuda, with this feature extending its axis across the Deep South
Aloft
a remnant trough over the southeastern states was in the process of shearing out as ridging centered over Deep South Texas was expanding eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deeper moisture prevails for locations along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor, where PWATs were in the 1.8 - 2 inch range, while values north of I-10 were generally in the 1.5 - 1.75 inch range. Widely scattered showers that were being generated by the inverted trough over the Atlantic waters adjacent to northeast FL were occasionally moving onshore, mainly along the Duval and St. Johns County coastlines. Mid and high altitude cloud cover was gradually thinning from north to south across our region as troughing shears out, with the inverted surface trough was producing pockets of lower cumulus clouds, mainly at coastal locations. Temperatures at 06Z remain in the 70s across most of our area, except upper 60s for portions of inland southeast GA, where dewpoints were in the mid 60s. Dewpoints elsewhere were generally in the lower 70s.

Inverted surface troughing will push onshore along the east central and northeast FL coasts this morning, likely developing widely scattered showers along the I-95 corridor this morning. This trough will then dissipate this afternoon inland, with the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary focusing widely scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms along the I-75 corridor in north central FL and the Suwannee Valley later this afternoon. PWATs across southeast GA will increase above 1.75 inches this afternoon, with just enough forcing provided by the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary to develop isolated to perhaps widely scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, with activity developing along the U.S.
Highway 301 corridor early this afternoon then shifting inland by the mid to late afternoon hours. Rising heights aloft and less in the way of mid and high altitude cloudiness should allow highs to reach the lower 90s for locations west of the I-95 corridor this afternoon, while morning showers and breezy onshore winds developing this afternoon keep highs in the 85-90 degree range for locations along and east of I-95. Heat index values should peak in the 95-100 range this afternoon. Rainfall amounts today will mostly remain below one quarter of an inch.

A late developing Gulf coast sea breeze boundary may collide with the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze early this evening near or just west of the I-75 corridor, which could keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ongoing through the early evening hours. Fair skies will otherwise prevail overnight, with a few pockets of lower stratus cloudiness and possibly some patchy fog developing at inland locations towards sunrise on Thursday. Lows will generally fall to the low and mid 70s, with a light southerly breeze potentially keeping coastal lows in the upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Heat Index Back into the Triple Digits to end the work week.

- Gradual Increase In Afternoon Thunderstorm Chances.

- Moderate Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches on Thursday.

Not much significant change over the last 24 hours in the pattern. A light steering flow will transition from southerly to westerly through Friday, realigning the best potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms from the I-75 corridor Thursday afternoon and evening to east of US 301 on Friday.
Convection will largely be diurnal each day, with a pronounced downward trend after sunset and dry conditions by midnight.
There should be an influx in deep layer moisture through the end of the week but the latest REFS guidance soundings do indicate weak lapse rates aloft under the influence of upper ridging stretch along the northern Gulf coast. Strong, isolated thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out, with the primary threat being isolated lightning and spotty, brief downpours.

This building upper ridge and associated thermal ridge in the low levels will boost temps to end the week, with low to mid 90s inland Thursday to widespread highs reading in the mid 90s by Friday for most areas, except at the immediate beachside zones where highs will be a few degrees cooler. Combining the hotter temperatures with the afternoon humidity, heat index values will be pushing into the upper 90s Thursday to the lower 100s Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Dangerous Heat for Sensitive Groups This Weekend.

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Along the Coastal Counties This Weekend.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase to 50-70% for coastal areas along the I-95 corridor this weekend as deep moisture pooled ahead of a stalling front situated to the northwest is advected into the region on west to northwesterly flow. The low level flow being predominantly southwesterly will focus the best chances toward the Atlantic coast, particularly on Sunday.

The primary concern during this period will be the dangerous heat forecast. Highs will approach the mid to upper 90s inland, and low 90s along the immediate east coast, with maximum heat indices approaching 104-108 degrees Saturday. Given the compounding heat and the potential for warm overnight conditions with lows only in the upper 70s, it'll feel oppressive for public that aren't able to stay adequately cool. A Heat Advisory will need to be considered for Saturday.

For next week, deeper moisture will remain while southwesterly steering flow is enhanced by an upstream trough. The associated frontal boundary will press toward the area but is likely to stall to the north, keeping the better chances/heavier rain just north of the forecast area during the middle part of next week.
Given the breezy offshore flow that will prevail, temperatures at the beaches will likely be as hot as inland locations next week, generally in the low 90s.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Showers developing over the near shore Atlantic waters will move onshore along the northeast FL coast overnight, potentially impacting SGJ and the Duval County terminals through Wednesday morning, with activity potentially impacting SSI after sunrise as well. MVFR ceilings will prevail at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals through the early afternoon hours, with confidence only high enough for PROB30 groups indicating periods of MVFR conditions at JAX and CRG during the predawn and morning hours.
Otherwise, MVFR visibilities overnight at VQQ will likely deteriorate to IFR or LIFR during the predawn hours. Showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to shift westward on Wednesday afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze boundary progresses inland, with confidence high enough to indicate MVFR ceilings at GNV towards 19Z. However, confidence at this time was only high enough for vicinity shower coverage at GNV through around 23Z. VFR conditions should prevail the rest of the terminals by 20Z as activity shifts inland towards the Interstate 75 corridor. MVFR visibilities are forecast to redevelop at VQQ towards the end of this TAF period. Light east to southeasterly surface winds overnight will become sustained at 5- 10 knots at the inland terminals by 15Z, while speeds increase to 10- 15 knots at the coastal terminals by 19Z.

MARINE

Weak troughing over the east central and northeast Florida waters will progress inland and dissipate this afternoon.
Widely scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will remain possible through the late morning hours today. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda will extend its axis across our local waters today before shifting southward and weakening on Thursday and Friday. Breezy onshore winds will develop over the near shore waters this afternoon and again on Thursday and Friday afternoons as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland, with unseasonably dry weather expected across our local waters. Weak troughing will then develop this weekend over the southeastern states, shifting prevailing winds to southwesterly.
This shift in the weather pattern will bring scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to at least the near shore waters through early next week. Southerly evening wind surges may increase speeds to near Caution levels during the evening hours this weekend and early next week.

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds this afternoon will combine with a developing northeasterly ocean swell to maintain a lower end moderate rip current risk at all area beaches, especially during the late afternoon outgoing tide. This swell will likely persist through Thursday, keeping the lower end moderate risk in place at area beaches. The northeasterly swell will then fade towards Friday, which could lower the risk at the southeast GA beaches, while a lower end moderate risk likely continues each afternoon at the northeast FL beaches, where breezy onshore winds will develop following the inland movement of the Atlantic sea breeze.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will be in a position to favor the Atlantic sea breeze through Thursday. Expect accompanying sea breeze wind speeds to be in the 8-12 mph range, or around 5-9 at eye level.
Temperatures will continue to heat up this week with mid 90s likely this weekend while lowest afternoon humidity be similar to the last few days around 40- 45%. Anticipate the return of more regular bouts of scattered afternoon thunderstorms late this week and numerous thunderstorms this weekend as deeper moisture moves into the region. Though fine fuels have dried to critical levels during the recent dry stretch, there is no glaring potential of concerning fire weather alignment. Breezy southwesterly winds will and elevated dispersion will develop next week ahead of an front that is expected to stall across central GA.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog is possible but significant fog development is not expected.

CLIMATE
The return of summertime heat later this week and over the weekend will lead to near record temperatures. Less likely to see readings reach record highs but there is potential for record high minimum temperatures to be threatened.

Record High Temperatures:

June 12: KJAX: 99/1998

June 13: KJAX: 100/1977

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 11: KJAX: 77/2005 KGNV: 75/2005

June 12: KJAX: 79/1952 KGNV: 76/1963

June 13: KJAX: 79/1880 KGNV: 79/1998

June 14: KJAX: 79/1880 KGNV: 77/1998

June 15: KJAX: 80/1880 KGNV: 78/1998

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 10 0 SSI 86 77 89 78 / 20 10 10 0 JAX 91 74 94 76 / 30 0 20 0 SGJ 88 73 91 75 / 30 0 10 0 GNV 93 72 94 73 / 30 30 30 20 OCF 92 73 93 74 / 50 30 40 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.