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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 348 Pm Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming east 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 348 Pm Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
lighter winds and calmer seas are expected to continue into tomorrow as high pressure settles into the area. Another low pressure system deepening over the central gulf mid to late week will increase easterly flow leading to a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions. Seas will once again turn rough as the combination of wind waves and swell pushes seas to around 8 to 12 feet in the open gulf waters.

FXUS64 KLIX 112149 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 349 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

The primary forecast challenge heading into tonight will be the extent of radiational cooling that occurs. A departing surface ridge will continue to induce light north to northeast flow, low dewpoints, and clear skies through tomorrow morning. Given these conditions, have opted to go a couple of degrees cooler (using the NBM 50th percentile output) than the deterministic model guidance. This places most of Southwest Mississippi and the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainages back into a light freeze for tonight. Otherwise, the remainder of the area will remain above freezing, but widespread frost can be expected for areas north and west of Lake Pontchartrain.

Although the surface high will be centered east of the area tomorrow into Wednesday, increasing shortwave ridging aloft will allow for continued subsidence in the upper levels. This continued ridging aloft will keep conditions dry through Wednesday night. Winds at the surface will remain out of the northeast, but mid-level flow will shift to a more southeasterly component on the southwest periphery of the mid-level ridge centered over Alabama and Georgia. A very gradual period of moisture advection in the mid-levels will take hold, and skies should turn partly to mostly cloudy by Wednesday night. Temperatures will also modify as the 925mb thermal trough axis shifts to the east. Lows will warm from the upper 30s and 40s on Tuesday night into the 40s and lower 50s by Wednesday night. These warmer lows on Wednesday night will be aided by the increased cloud cover limiting radiational cooling. Highs will be closer to average in the low to mid 60s each day.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday night)
Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

The long term forecast, for the lack of a better word, is a bit of a mess...In some good news, models are actually in a little more agreement than they were yesterday, but still have some large deviations. Knowing this, forecast confidence in the long term remains low at this time.

Synoptically, further to the west a quickly developing deep trough, that eventually turns to a closed low, develops over the four corners region and slides eastward over Texas Thursday and Friday.
This trough/closed low moves into Louisiana through Saturday and past that it seems we'll have some sort of merger between the northern and southern streams. Synoptically the globals are in decent agreement which is a good sign.

At the surface, high pressure remains over the eastern U.S and some low pressure forms in the Gulf. The globals have some spatial and temporal differences in the development of this low pressure down in the Gulf. The GFS starts to show this by late Friday night north of the tip of Mexico while the Euro starts to show this on Saturday in the NW Caribbean. To the west, a frontal boundary associated with the upper trough/closed low moves eastward and eventually enters our area sometime on Saturday. This will push that low pressure in the Gulf to the east some and beyond that we see pretty different solutions on what plays out.

Now let's talk impacts to us. Generally the area that will likely see the biggest impacts regardless of the solution, is the marine areas. Winds and waves will increase rapidly into Thursday. Here onshore, rain chances begin to increase Friday and into the weekend.
Depending on the solution we could end up drier or wetter and we could see some pretty gusty winds. Temperatures will generally remain in the 60s during the day and the 40s-50s at night.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

A broad surface high centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will keep skies clear and VFR conditions in place at all of the terminals through tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light from the north and northeast through the period. PG

MARINE
Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Significant maritime impacts are expected to take hold as early as tomorrow night and continue through the end of the week as a strong low pressure system forms in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
As this low deepens over the week, a surface high will remain in place across the Southeastern CONUS. The result will be a tightening pressure gradient over the coastal waters, and an increase in easterly winds into small craft advisory and possibly gale force range. These strong easterly winds of 25 to 35 knots will have a long fetch over the Gulf, and this will allow for a building swell of up to 8 feet to form over the open Gulf waters by Friday and Saturday. This swell will combine with wind waves of 7 to 8 feet to produce seas of 12 to 16 feet offshore with locally higher waves of up to 20 feet possible at times. The period will also be quite long at around 10 seconds, so very hazardous boating conditions are expected from Thursday through Saturday. Conditions will begin to improve by Sunday as the low pressure system moves into the Atlantic. Additionally, the persistent strong east winds will push tide levels well above average in the lakes and on east facing shores. This will lead to coastal flooding issues in these areas from Thursday through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 32 62 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 36 64 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 32 62 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 45 62 47 62 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 37 61 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 32 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, Tide feet

Paris Road Bridge
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Mon -- 12:50 AM CST     1.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:26 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:45 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:47 PM CST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:49 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:00 PM CST     Sunset
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Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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