Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Orleans, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:25PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 10:17 AM CDT (15:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:20PMMoonset 6:17AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 421 Am Cdt Wed Apr 8 2020
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog early in the morning.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas building to 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Thunderstorms likely in the evening. Showers likely through the night. Chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 421 Am Cdt Wed Apr 8 2020
Synopsis..High pressure will remain through Thursday morning. A cold front will settle into the coastal waters late Thursday, followed by a surge of cool high pressure Friday. This front is then expected to surge northward as a warm front Saturday, then another cold front is expected to push through the central gulf coast region Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Orleans, LA
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location: 30.07, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 080929 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

DISCUSSION.

Glancing at the surface maps this morning, the weak surface high axis off the east coast of Florida has subtly pressed west into the eastern Gulf, combined with a recent weak warm frontal passage (now undergoing frontolysis in central MS/AR) has allowed for a very noticeable surge in surface dewpoints. Many locations have seen a 8-12 degree rise in Td's, and will notice a summer-like early morning feel to the air with plenty of dew to go around. In such a moist airmass, it won't take much to produce a few isolated areas of drizzle this morning, primarily in and around marine areas (model soundings indicating a nearly saturated, moist adiabatic profile in the 0-1km layer, below a subsidence inversion around 900mb. Have added a few isolated drizzle/showers to accommodate this. Otherwise, the main story for today will be continued very warm conditions. Main focus in regards to this will be forecast highs and the relation to the larger surge in surface to low-level moisture. This may yield afternoon heat indicies in the lower to mid 90's for some, especially west of I-59 and including the southshore - which will feel more like early summer today. The SPC does have our NW counties and parishes in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, however diving deep into CAM's and Global models does not really illustrate much of a widespread risk. One run of the HRRR tonight did show one small cell skimming our SW MS counties later this afternoon. While there will be plenty of instability to go around today thanks to the recent surge in low-level moisture, the missing item here is a clear dynamic trigger (weak impulse more to our north), and the threat appears to be too isolated to mention much today. Following this afternoon, the next feature to focus on will be to our north, with a fast moving storm system and attendant cold front sparking a widespread severe weather event across the mid- mississippi valley to ohio valley regions. This front and ongoing convection across north-central MS and northern AL early Thursday morning will progressively slide south. Even though we are just talking ~24 hours from now, models are not handling the speed and PoP coverage of this front well at all. Such a large suite of models (including Global ECMWF/GFS solutions) keep the front well back to the north at or before 12Z THU (even the extended 36hr 06Z HRRR is lagging with almost zero coverage) Not anticipating any severe weather risks IF the front OR cells form along the front early Thursday morning.

Next area to focus on will be the strong, upper-level low out west as the next shortwave impulse/stretched area of vorticity advances east downstream of the trough then spinning its way across southern NV/CA. This will send the next rain mass our way late Thursday evening into Thursday night/Friday morning. Pretty much all of our land areas will be in a much cooler, post-frontal airmass with the aforementioned front slowing/stalling just along the SE LA coastline. With this impulse racing east on top of this stable airmass, there may be a few elevated thunderstorms generally along/south of I-10/12. Marine areas may need to be monitored closely either along the stationary front or in the warm sector between 06Z and 15Z Friday, as a few strong to possible severe storms may be possible (SPC has the Day 2 MRGL as west as the LCH/LIX CWA border, but will still need to be monitored). Once this disturbance passes, we will deal with one more dry day on Friday with generally mostly cloudy skies and mild, yet comfortable temperatures.

Then comes the upper-low from the west by this weekend. The slow movement of the upper-low is due to the subtle blocking pattern and how it's more off on its own, however the next Henry kicker trough dives across the Pac NW in the progressive NW to SE flow dominating the northern US. This will pick up the strong upper- low, open it more to a neutral trough across central Texas on Saturday, and press east our way early Sunday, and become negatively tilt in this process. Even though we are talking about Saturday and/or Sunday - this needs to be analyzed closely and lets go ahead dive deep. The negative tilted nature of the trough will yield explosive cyclogenesis downstream across the ARKLATEX/lower to mid-MS valley of the region (Euro targeting in on a sub 990mb low across central AR). Comparing the GFS and EURO show similar solutions and overall dynamics, but mostly with timing differences (GFS faster/Euro slower). Will hold back on leaning towards either one's timing, however know that a slower solution like the Euro would place a significant severe weather event somewhere in our CWA due to peak daytime heating and impressive shear/instability profiles. Even if it is faster, and the (what would appear by storm mode to be a QLCS) is earlier in the day on Sunday, and instability is somewhat on the low side, it may still be enough to cause widespread severe weather. SPC did in fact add our area in a Day 5 outlook, and mention the points previously made here as well as calling this a potential "substantial severe thunderstorm event". Look for more details as we get closer and may be subject to change, but getting the word out is the main focus at this point in time.

Won't dive into much in regards to the days beyond this system, but prognostic guidance continues to clearly hint at more of a cool down through early to the middle part of next week, back to near to slightly below normal temperatures for a change! We'll take it! KLG

AVIATION.

Cigs will remain BKN-OVC006 or higher this morning and vis could be restricted to 1SM for a few terminals but this should not be the rule. Not much change in conditions between this morning and overnight tonight. VFR should be the majority condition during daylight hours. There will be some showers around today mainly over the northern half of the area and a TS could be observed as well. The mention of -SHRA or VCSH may be used but chances are not high enough to mention TS at the moment.

MARINE.

SW winds around 10kt today will become more variable by Thursday and a cold front could push into the northern gulf early Friday bringing northerly winds at 15-20kt shifting to easterly by early Saturday. The front will stall and quickly return as a warm front during the day Saturday bringing southerly winds back to the area. There will be times of sh/ts Thursday through the weekend. A cold front should move through by the start of the new week bringing northerly winds at around 20kt.

DECISION SUPPORT.

DSS code: Blue. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Forecast support for critical IDSS locations. River Flood Warnings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 85 70 83 56 / 10 10 20 50 BTR 87 70 85 58 / 10 10 30 50 ASD 88 69 87 57 / 20 10 20 50 MSY 87 71 86 62 / 10 10 20 50 GPT 83 70 84 58 / 10 10 20 50 PQL 86 69 87 54 / 10 10 20 50

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 4 mi47 min SW 9.9 G 13 78°F 75°F1013.9 hPa
CARL1 10 mi47 min 62°F
FREL1 19 mi53 min SSW 4.1 G 7 77°F 1013.5 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 25 mi47 min SW 13 G 15 77°F 77°F1014.8 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 27 mi53 min WSW 6 G 7 77°F 76°F1014.9 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 43 mi53 min WSW 6 G 8 80°F 76°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA3 mi24 minno data10.00 mi81°F73°F79%1014.6 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA12 mi24 minWSW 710.00 miOvercast82°F73°F77%1014.9 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA17 mi82 minSW 56.00 miFog/Mist78°F77°F97%1014.3 hPa
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA23 mi24 minVar 310.00 miOvercast79°F73°F85%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNEW

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:19 AM CDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:16 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:43 PM CDT     0.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:19 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.