Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Asbury Lake, FL

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

High pressure ridge axis from the Western Atlantic remains across the region with mainly dry conditions and a return to above normal temps with highs reaching into the upper 80s/near 90F over inland areas both days, while the East Coast sea breeze is expected to push inland to the US 301 corridor both days and should keep the Atlantic Coastal areas slightly cooler with highs into the middle 80s. Moisture levels increase slightly by Friday and may be enough to trigger an isolated shower and/or sprinkle along the East Coast sea breeze front as it moves inland, but overall rainfall chances will remain below 20%. Low temps are expected to fall into the lower/middle 60s over inland areas, while the onshore flow will allow temps to only bottom out in the upper 60s/lower 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. The dry airmass will not support significant late night fog formation, but patchy fog will be possible over inland areas just before sunrise on both mornings.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Saturday...Models in good agreement with next frontal boundary pushing into the local area from the Northwest and expect above normal temps into the 85-90F range prior to the onset of scattered showers and storms by the afternoon/evening hours, with a few strong storms with gusty winds/small hail possible, but significant severe weather is not expected.

Sunday into Monday...Models begin to diverge slightly, but overall pattern suggests that frontal boundary will stall across the FL peninsula with a low level breezy East to Northeast flow developing at the surface, while a disturbance moves aloft along the stalled frontal boundary which could develop a weak low pressure center off the NE FL coast. This set-up would lead to a return to near normal temps and increased rainfall chances with scattered to numerous showers and isolated storm activity, with best rainfall chances along the NE FL Coastal Counties, with lesser rainfall chances inland. Not much agreement in details between the wetter GFS and drier ECMWF solutions, so confidence definitely lower in forecast during this time frame.

Tuesday...High pressure likely builds into the Carolinas and nudges frontal boundary further southward and any low pressure development probably pulls away from the region. This will likely continue the breezy low level East to Northeast flow along with near normal temps. A few showers still possible along the coastal areas of NE FL/SE GA, but the remainder of inland areas should be mostly dry.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 751 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 06Z Thursday. LIFR conditions will likely develop at VQQ after 07Z. Light south southeasterly surface winds will develop by 13Z, followed by winds shifting to easterly by 16Z and increasing to 10-15 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals by 18Z and then spreading to the inland terminals during the late afternoon hours. These breezy easterly surface winds will continue through around 02Z, followed by winds shifting to southeasterly and diminishing to 5-10 knots at the coastal terminals and around 5 knots or less inland towards 06Z.

MARINE
Issued at 1125 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

High pressure situated off the southeastern seaboard will keep a general southeasterly wind flow in place across our local waters, with an evening wind surge on Thursday expected to bring Caution level speeds of 15 to 20 knots to the near shore waters. Seas of 3 to 5 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore through Saturday night. Southerly winds will then increase to Caution levels of 15 to 20 knots over the offshore waters on Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front that will approach our area by Saturday evening. This cold front will cross our local waters towards midnight on Saturday night, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. A surge of northeasterly winds is forecast in the wake of this frontal passage on Sunday and Sunday night as high pressure wedges down the southeastern seaboard, with waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms possible through early next week as seas gradually build. Seas will likely build to Caution levels of 4-6 feet offshore by Sunday afternoon, with further increases expected throughout our local waters early next week.

Rip Currents: Breaker heights have fallen to the 3-4 foot range at the northeast FL beaches and the 2-3 foot range at the southeast GA beaches. A persistent easterly ocean swell will combine with these wave heights to keep a higher end moderate rip current risk in place at all area beaches through Saturday, and a high risk will be possible beginning on Sunday as a northeasterly surge of winds provides increasingly rough surf conditions.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1125 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

A dry air mass will prevail across our region through Friday.
Relative humidity values will fall to around 30 percent each afternoon for locations along and west of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor. Otherwise, east-southeasterly surface and transport winds will shift to southeasterly by Thursday morning, with southerly transport winds expected across inland southeast GA by Thursday afternoon. Breezy easterly surface winds are expected for locations along and east of the I-95 corridor each afternoon and early evening through Friday. Surface and transport winds will shift to southerly on Friday. Elevated mixing heights will yield fair to good daytime dispersion values across our region through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 85 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 80 62 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 85 57 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 81 61 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 89 57 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 89 59 89 61 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.