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AMZ452 Expires:202312092245;;152734 Fzus52 Kjax 090732 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 232 am est Sat dec 9 2023
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-092245- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 232 am est Sat dec 9 2023
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast around 10 knots during the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters becoming a light chop.
Tonight..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday..South southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest around 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters becoming rough. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north around 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters becoming a moderate chop.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north northeast around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet.
Wednesday and Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 232 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..
prevailing winds will become southerly early this morning, well in advance of a cold front that will enter the southeastern states late tonight. Showers and Thunderstorms will mainly be confined to the gulf stream waters from today through Sunday morning. South-southwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of the approaching cold front on Sunday morning, with showers and Thunderstorms overspreading our local waters during the afternoon and evening hours. The cold front will cross our local waters towards midnight, with westerly winds shifting to northwesterly and increasing to small craft advisory levels overnight, with occasional gale force wind gusts possible offshore through early Monday morning. High pressure building into the southeastern states in the wake of this frontal passage on Monday will strengthen as it migrates northeastward towards the carolina coast by midweek. Northerly winds will briefly lull on Monday afternoon and evening before shifting to northeasterly and strengthening on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds and seas will likely reach small craft advisory levels before midweek, with an extended period of strong onshore winds and rough seas expected through late next week.

Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 07, 2023 at 1200 utc...
57 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 66 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 75 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 87 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 091052 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 552 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Patchy fog developing around the regional terminals early this morning is expected to be transient in nature and will dissipate before 14Z. Area webcams are not matching AWOS observations at our terminals, and we thus expect VFR conditions to prevail towards sunrise as observers arrive at airport towers that are served by AWOS equipment. Lower stratus ceilings are likely to develop during the predawn hours on Sunday, and we have indicated MVFR ceilings at the terminals after 08Z. Light south or southeasterly surface winds are expected to develop after sunrise, with sustained speeds increasing to 5-10 knots at the terminals by 16Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will then develop at coastal locations during the early afternoon hours, resulting in surface winds shifting to east-southeasterly around 10 knots at SGJ towards 18Z, with winds elsewhere shifting to east-southeasterly during the mid to late afternoon hours as this boundary progresses inland. Southeasterly surface winds sustained around 5 knots this evening will shift to southerly overnight, with speeds expected to increase to 5-10 knots towards sunrise on Sunday.

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Overnight surface analysis depicts low pressure (1004 millibars)
positioned over the Ozarks, with a warm front associated with this developing storm system lifting northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley and the southeastern states. Meanwhile, stronger low pressure (997 millibars) approaching the western shores of Lake Superior was anchored to a strong cold front that was diving southeastward across the northern Plains states.
Otherwise, strong high pressure (1026 millibars) was located over the southwestern Atlantic ocean
Aloft
the weak shortwave trough that brought light showers and sprinkles to portions of northeast and north central FL on Friday evening has moved northeastward and offshore, with deep southwesterly flow aloft prevailing locally, downstream of deep troughing digging across the Upper Midwest. A 110 knot jet streak at 250 millibars (around 35,000 feet) was located south of this trough across the Red River Valley of northern Texas. Mid-level cloudiness associated with the departing shortwave persists for locations south of Interstate 10 and also for locations north of Waycross in southeast GA. Temperatures and dewpoints were slowly falling through the 50s as of 08Z, ranging to the lower 60s along the northeast FL coast.

NEAR TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Subsidence and decreasing cloud cover in the wake of the departing shortwave trough to our northeast may promote at least patchy fog development around sunrise this morning. However, strengthening low level southerly flow may prevent significant and widespread fog development, and any fog that manages to develop towards sunrise will quickly dissipate early this morning.

Deep southwesterly flow and a subsident air mass today will unseasonably warm conditions area-wide today under partly to mostly sunny skies, with increasingly humid conditions expected tonight ahead of a cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. Highs this afternoon will soar to the upper 70s and lower 80s, with an afternoon sea breeze keeping coastal highs slightly cooler, generally in the mid to upper 70s. These values are generally 9-14 degrees above early December climatology for our area.

A few showers may develop during the predawn hours on Sunday across inland southeast GA and western portions of the Suwannee Valley. Strengthening low level south-southwesterly flow should prevent significant and widespread fog formation, but low stratus ceilings will likely overspread the Suwannee Valley and inland southeast GA overnight, possibly expanding eastward towards sunrise. Lows will only fall to the low and mid 60s, which is much closer to what our high temperatures should be at this time of the year. These values will be about 12-19 degrees above climatology for December 10th.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

High pressure ridging will depart the area to the east Sunday morning, as front approaches from the northwest. This front will move into inland counties early in the afternoon, then sweep southeast across area through the afternoon and evening. Much of the convective activity associated with the front will be to the southeast by midnight. The main questions on Sunday, will be exact timing for the start of convection, and what the potential is for strong to severe storms. Much of the morning will be dry, as ridging remains in place, especially over coastal counties. A warm and moist south to southwest flow will produce an unstable airmass across region ahead of the front. This will lead to convection breaking out during the afternoon ahead of the front.
Cells ahead of the front will be fairly scattered, then a more organized line of storms is expected to develop and move through ahead of the front. At this time, forecast timing will bring the main line through during the heat of the day, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 70s inland, and near 80 coastal NE FL. Therefore, the potential for strong to severe storms will exist across the forecast area all afternoon, then near the coast in the evening.

Overnight Sunday night, the front will be off to the east southeast and high pressure will build from the west northwest.
The building high will clear precipitation and clouds from west to east through the night, with temperatures falling off quickly.

The high will continue to build to the northwest on Monday. Monday will be a dry and sunny day due to subsidence under the building high. However, cold advection on northwest flow, will keep temperatures well below normal Monday, with highs generally in the 50s. A few spots could reach 60 Ocala and south.

The high will settle to the north Monday night, keeping the region dry and clear. This will be the coldest night this period, but there will be a fairly large range in temperatures, as the flow will slowly become more onshore through the night. Inland lows in the 30s will be common, while lows closer to the coast will hold in the lower to mid 40s. A light freeze will be possible far inland SE GA, with a significant potential for inland frost.

On Tuesday, high will become centered more to the north northeast.
This will lead to a prevailing onshore flow. An inverted trough is expected to develop over the coastal waters, which will produce increased clouds through the day. Temperatures will remain below normal Tuesday, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s SE GA, to mid to upper 60s NE FL.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

A broad ridge of high pressure will remain to the north of the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. It will remain dry into Wednesday, but clouds will remain due to moist onshore flow. With clouds and stronger onshore flow it will be a milder night Tuesday night, with lows ranging from around 40 inland SE GA to mid 50s NE FL coast. Temperatures will be a little below normal Wednesday, with highs 60 to 65 SE GA, mid 60s to lower 70s NE FL.

Long range models are gaining a consensus on developing low pressure in the Gulf toward the end of next week, then lifting this area northeast into southeastern US. There is a good bit of uncertainty Thursday into Friday, but potential exists for a significant precipitation event. At this point confidence is too low for much more than increasing rainfall chances. Highs Thursday and Friday will be a little below normal, with lows a little above normal Thursday night.

MARINE
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Prevailing winds will become southerly early this morning, well in advance of a cold front that will enter the southeastern states late tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will mainly be confined to the Gulf Stream waters from today through Sunday morning. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore today, with seas then building to 4-5 feet offshore by late tonight and Sunday.

South-southwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of the approaching cold front on Sunday morning, with showers and thunderstorms overspreading our local waters during the afternoon and evening hours. Speeds will increase to Caution levels of 15-20 knots offshore on Sunday. The cold front will cross our local waters towards midnight on Sunday night, with westerly winds of Caution levels near shore and Small Craft Advisory levels offshore shifting to northwesterly, with Small Craft Advisory level speeds expanding to the near shore waters overnight. Occasional Gale Force wind gusts will be possible offshore through early Monday morning. Seas will build to the 3-5 foot range near shore and 5-6 feet offshore on Sunday night and Monday.

High pressure building into the southeastern states in the wake of this frontal passage on Monday will strengthen as it migrates northeastward towards the Carolina coast by midweek. Northerly winds will briefly lull on Monday afternoon and evening before shifting to northeasterly and strengthening on Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas will briefly fall back to the 3-5 foot range both near shore and offshore on Monday night and Tuesday. Winds and seas will likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels before midweek, with an extended period of strong onshore winds and rough seas expected through late next week.

Rip Currents: A persistent northeasterly ocean swell will combine with onshore winds developing during the afternoon hours to create a lower end moderate rip current risk at all area beaches today.
Strengthening southerly winds and building seas will likely keep a moderate risk in place at all area beaches on Sunday, with strong offshore winds briefly reducing the risk to low on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 78 62 73 38 / 0 50 100 60 SSI 75 63 75 41 / 10 10 80 80 JAX 81 64 78 41 / 0 10 80 80 SGJ 78 66 78 44 / 0 10 70 80 GNV 81 64 78 42 / 0 10 80 70 OCF 82 64 80 45 / 0 0 60 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Black Creek
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Sat -- 03:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:14 AM EST     4.89 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:44 AM EST     5.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:59 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:07 PM EST     4.92 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:33 PM EST     5.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Black Creek, S.C.L. RR. bridge, Florida, Tide feet

Orange Park
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Sat -- 03:06 AM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:54 AM EST     0.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:58 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:54 PM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:46 PM EST     0.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Orange Park, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet

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