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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 324 Am Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday evening through late Thursday night...
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots early. Lake waters choppy.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters very rough. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Lake waters very rough. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 324 Am Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis..
tonight, winds will increase as high pressure moves east and low pressure starts to move northwest of the area. On Thursday, widespread showers and Thunderstorms will occur as the above-mentioned low will be pulling large amounts of moisture from the bay of campeche across swla/setx. A small craft advisory will start for the outer coastal waters  Thursday afternoon, and the rest of the coastal waters and  intercoastal areas by Thursday night. Current guidance puts gusts just below gale conditions, however, a gale warning could be issued for Thursday night. In addition, waves will be a major concern with guidance showing 10 foot waves with an 8-second period.

FXUS64 KLCH 291146 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 546 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 317 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

The nice weather today will be the last bit of calm we have for the next few days. Current surface analysis shows broad high pressure that stretches from the eastern seaboard to the Texas coast. This high pressure will persist through the rest of today but will be sliding farther east. By tonight, the high pressure will be eroding overhead as a cut-off low starts to dig down from the Rockies.

As the low pushes towards our area, the pressure gradient will tighten and winds will increase. With the high to the east and the low to the west, our winds will be southernly. Looking offshore, sustained winds be well above the 20 knot threshold for a small craft advisory and gusts will be approaching gale-force winds Thursday afternoon and into the evening. For now, we will only be issuing a small craft advisory but a wind advisory for inland areas and a gale warning for the coastal waters could be possible in the next forecast package.  

Now we can move on to the severe weather threat on Thursday. This threat extends across all parts of the forecast area. The SPC  currently has the eastern parts of Hardin and Tyler counties in an Enhanced risk (3/5) for severe weather with a Slight risk (2/5)  stretching to Lake Charles. The rest of the area is under a  Marginal Risk (1/5). The main threat looks to be tornadoes with  the SPC placing a 10% risk in the Enhanced region of the outlook.  When looking at our forecast soundings in the eastern parts of the CWA, Tyler County, SFC-1 km shear is at 30 knots, and SFC-3km is at around 70 knots. As a warm front lifts across the area, widespread showers will form, and any thunderstorms that are able to tap into that rotational energy could become dangerous supercells. Mid-level lapse rates are also high in the 7-8 C/km range. One of the remaining questions will be how much  CAPE will be available for our area, with most guidance showing low values of around 500 J/kg. The high-end model values peak around 1200 J/kg; still, any thunderstorms that do manage to form into supercells  will outperform the low CAPE and could pose a threat. All modes of severe hazards (tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds)  will be possible on Thursday, so make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast information and to have multiple ways to receive  warnings.

The trend of lower QPF continues with the NBM reducing overall rain amounts by a few tenths of an inch for Thursday and Friday.  but PWAT values will be in the 90th percentile, and the WPC still has the region in a Marginal risk for excessive rain. 

A cold front attached to the low-pressure system will move through some time on late Thursday night. This will end the severe  weather threat and push the rest of the showers out of the region. Temperatures won't drop much, and highs will stay in the upper 60s with lows in the upper 40s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

For Saturday, a longwave mid to upper level trough east of the Rockies extending southward across Texas will continue a southwest flow aloft over the region. Lingering moisture and lift expected to continue the chance of showers and a few thunderstorms over the area through Saturday night. Best chances will be over Lower Acadiana and adjacent coastal waters, slightly less further north and west.
Latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian shows the trough axis moving slowly over the region Sunday, with most of the moisture and lift east of the Atchafalaya River by daybreak. Blended guidance lagging behind a bit, showing lingering chances through the day Sunday. Still a bit of a low confidence forecast. Highs Saturday in the lower 70s. Lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 50s across Inland Southeast Texas to near 60 across Lower Acadiana.

Slightly cooler air expected to begin filtering across the northwest sections of the area Sunday afternoon, and the remaining area Sunday night into Monday. Not expecting much if any clearing right away, and may not happen until Tuesday when we expect northwest flow aloft as the longwave trough deepens over the Eastern U.S. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Monday and lower to mid 40s Tuesday. Highs in the mid 60s Monday and Tuesday.



AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with clear skies and light winds. Near the end of TAF period high cloud cover will start to increase with winds becoming southernly.

MARINE
Issued at 317 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Tonight, winds will increase as high pressure moves east and low pressure starts to move northwest of the area. On Thursday, widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur as the above-mentioned low will be pulling large amounts of moisture from the Bay of Campeche across SWLA/SETX. A small craft advisory will start for the outer coastal waters  Thursday afternoon, and the rest of the coastal waters and  intercoastal areas by Thursday night. Current guidance puts gusts just below gale conditions, however, a gale warning could be issued for Thursday night. In addition, waves will be a major concern with guidance showing 10 foot waves with an 8-second period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 63 43 65 57 / 0 20 90 100 LCH 65 51 69 63 / 0 50 90 90 LFT 65 49 69 65 / 0 10 80 90 BPT 66 55 70 64 / 0 60 90 90

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 1 AM CST Friday for GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-475.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 1 AM CST Friday for GMZ470-472.

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Mesquite Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:13 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:37 AM CST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:15 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:14 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:16 PM CST     1.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mesquite Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, Tide feet

Sabine Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:15 AM CST     1.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:13 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:18 AM CST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:15 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:40 PM CST     1.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:17 PM CST     1.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sabine Pass, North, Texas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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