Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orange, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:44PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 6:51 AM CDT (11:51 UTC) Moonrise 7:47PMMoonset 8:40AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 429 Am Cdt Wed Oct 16 2019
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers through the day.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..North winds around 5 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Lake waters smooth. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..South winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 429 Am Cdt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis.. A cold front will move through the area this morning. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms will accompany the cold frontal passage, with moderate to strong offshore flow expected to develop in its wake this afternoon. Winds will diminish on Thursday, with northeasterly flow expected to persist as an area of low pressure develops over the western gulf by Friday. The low pressure area will bring increased chances of showers and Thunderstorms through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange, TX
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location: 30.1, -93.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 161030
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
530 am cdt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
Sfc cold front continues to approach the area, extending from near
monroe to brenham as of 5 am. The latest ua analysis and wv
imagery shows convective activity occurring within an active
subtropical jet streaming along and ahead of a shortwave trough
over western tx. Further northeast, an area of low pres was
crossing the great lakes, with a trough axis extending south over
the ms valley.

The combination of shortwave energy overriding the frontal
boundary allowed a quasi linear band of storms to evolve acrs
southwest la earlier this morning. Vad wind profiles from klch
and kpoe radars showed modest low level shear which also
supported the potential for stronger storms. A few reports of
damage have been reported due to strong winds within these storms.

This band continues to move east acrs acadiana at the present
time, while area radars show additional showers and storms
forming just ahead of the front acrs SW la and SE tx.

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Discussion
The cold front will progress toward the coast this morning as the
upper trough over the great lakes digs over the eastern conus.

Numerous to widespread showers and a few tstms can be expected as
the front moves through, although storms are not expected to be
quite as intense as the qlcs band that moved through during the
overnight early morning period. High pres will build over the area
behind the front, bringing drier midlevel air over the region.

Showers will taper off from north to south by midday or early
aftn. However, cloud cover is expected to linger before decreasing
some tonight. Cooler temperatures will follow in the wake of the
front today, likely peaking in the lower to middle 70s this
morning then falling during the aftn.

Quiet weather is expected for tonight into Thursday as sfc high
pres crosses the region. Overnight lows will be comparable to the
last frontal passage late last week, with temperatures ranging
from the upper 40s acrs cntl la to middle 50s along the i-10
corridor. Temperatures are expected to only warm into the lower
70s on Thursday under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Quasi-zonal flow will persist over the region, in advance of the
shortwave trough over tx. At the sfc, the frontal boundary will
become oriented east to west, stalling over the northern gulf.

By Friday, a tropical wave drifting over the bay of campeche and
is expected to form into a closed low over the western gulf. The
low will bring a surge of deep tropical moisture northward, with
showers and tstms developing and bcmg widespread over the western
gulf. The bulk of the activity is expected to stay offshore, but
some small rain chcs could spread into southern portions of the
area during the day Friday.

The low is being monitored by the national hurricane center for
possible tropical or subtropical development over the next 2 to 5
days, and the latest tropical weather outlook has a 40 percent
chance of development over the next 5 days. The tx shortwave
sliding east toward the NW gulf coast will aid in lifting the low
pres area northward, and it will eventually merge with the
stalled frontal boundary. By Saturday, the system will then move
toward the northeast along the front and in concert with the
weakening shortwave. There are still some discrepancies regarding
timing track, although global models seem to be converging on a
solution that takes the track east of the area, and this should
minimize any significant impacts to the area. In general, expect
some low rain chcs to spread acrs the area during the weekend.

The system is expected to be well east of the area by Sunday, with
winds bcmg southerly as low pres develops over the southern plains
ahead of a strong upper level trough moving over the rockies. This
trough will move into the cntl us on Monday, sending another cold
front into the area. Moisture return ahead of the system should be
sufficient to produce sctd showers and storms during the day
Monday, with the front expected to sweep through the area late in
the day. Rain will come to an end by Monday night, with cool and
dry conditions expected on Tuesday.

24

Marine
A cold front will move through the area this morning. Sctd to
nmrs showers and tstms will accompany the cold frontal passage,
with moderate to strong offshore flow expected to develop in its
wake this aftn. Exercise caution has been hoisted for late this
aftn into tonight with winds strengthening to 15 to 20 kt.

Winds will diminish on Thursday, with northeasterly flow expected
to persist as an area of low pres develops over the western gulf
by Friday. The low pressure area will bring increased chances of
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. The latest
tropical weather outlook by NHC has a 40 percent chc of tropical
or subtropical development of this system over the next 5 days.

The latest model guidance suggest this low will move northeast
toward the north cntl or NE gulf through the end of the week.

This would place the area on the western side of the system,
reducing the potential for any significant impacts. However, a
period of elevated winds and seas will be possible Friday night
into Saturday as the low moves toward the northeast.

24

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 71 47 71 49 30 0 0 0
lch 76 55 71 58 70 0 10 10
lft 77 54 72 58 90 0 10 10
bpt 76 56 71 59 80 10 10 10

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft exercise caution from this evening through Thursday
morning for gmz435-455-475.

Small craft exercise caution from 4 pm cdt this afternoon
through Thursday morning for gmz450-452-470-472.

Public... 24


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 20 mi52 min N 7 G 12 72°F 78°F1013.9 hPa (+0.7)
BKTL1 23 mi58 min 79°F
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 27 mi52 min N 13 G 16 71°F 79°F1015.2 hPa (+1.1)
LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA 28 mi52 min 71°F 79°F1013.7 hPa (+0.4)
TXPT2 29 mi52 min N 15 G 17 70°F 78°F1012 hPa (+1.0)
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 30 mi52 min NNE 8 G 11 72°F 76°F1012.5 hPa (+1.0)
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 33 mi112 min N 12 G 15 74°F 1012.8 hPa (+0.5)73°F

Wind History for Port Arthur, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orange, Orange County Airport, TX5 mi57 minN 04.00 miHeavy Rain70°F70°F100%1014.6 hPa
Southland Field, LA18 mi77 minSSW 53.00 miHeavy Rain70°F69°F99%1013.5 hPa
Beaumont/Port Arthur Southeast Texas Regional Airport, TX19 mi59 minN 17 G 213.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist72°F70°F94%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KORG

Wind History from ORG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3S5SW8S7S9S9S13S9
G16
SW7SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN7
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1 day agoE3NE5E5E4E4E5CalmE4E9E9E4E9E7E5E6SE6SE3SE5SE6SE5SE5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmNE3N3N4N4N4N4NE4N4NE4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmE3NE3E4E4NE4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Orange (Old Navy Base), Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Rainbow Bridge, Neches River, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.