Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Orange, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:39PM Friday January 17, 2020 11:53 PM CST (05:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:13AMMoonset 12:10PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 920 Pm Cst Fri Jan 17 2020
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon cst Saturday...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Patchy fog late in the evening, then areas of dense fog after midnight. Slight chance of showers late in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..West winds up to 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Chance of rain showers in the evening, then slight chance of rain showers after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Sunday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain showers after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Chance of rain showers.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 920 Pm Cst Fri Jan 17 2020
Synopsis.. Winds will veer back to the southeast tonight as a warm front moves north of the coastal waters. This will increase the sea fog potential again with areas of dense fog expected into Saturday until passage of a cold front during the afternoon. Strong offshore flow will develop in the wake of the front, with small craft advisory conditions possible Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange, TX
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location: 30.1, -93.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 180529 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1129 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2020

AVIATION.

Light SE/ESE will continue to usher low level moisture into the area resulting in ceilings lowering to IFR overnight and increasing shower activity. The increase low level moisture will also result in the potential for fog mainly between 10Z-14Z at KLCH/KBPT with TEMPO IFR visibility during this time. SE winds will shift to SW by 15Z ahead of an approaching front that will result in chances for showers and a few thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon. Daytime mixing will result in ceilings improving to MVFR and eventually VFR by late afternoon. The front should begin to exit the area tomorrow evening resulting in N winds increasing to 10-15 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 945 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2020/

DISCUSSION . Regional 88Ds show the bulk of the precip associated with the approaching shortwave/associated sfc cold front remains nw of the forecast area this evening . while a sporadic light shower or two has been noted over mainly the ern zones. Latest high res runs have handled this well and generally agree with inherited POP grids for the remainder of the night. Elsewhere, inherited grids/zones appear in good shape as is with no significant changes needed.

No update is planned at this time. 25

MARINE . No changes to the inherited Dense Fog Advisory for the near shore waters as latest high res runs indicate this trend will continue. Could see some dense fog in the outer waters, but not enough coverage or confidence at this time to extend the advisory at this time.

25

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 337 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2020/

SYNOPSIS . Warm and muggy conditions along with the potential for dense marine fog will return tonight into early Saturday before a Canadian cold front moves through Saturday afternoon. Showers and a few storms will accompany the front, with much cooler and drier air behind the front. A light freeze along with some frost will be possible down to the I-10 corridor Monday night into Tuesday morning. Still uncertainty in the system for late next week. However, it will need to be monitored closely for the possibility of locally heavy rainfall.

Rua

DISCUSSION . A warm front is noted just offshore over the coastal waters this early afternoon. A short wave is moving across the Rockies with a surface low developing over east Colorado. As the surface low deepens and moves east with the short wave, southerly winds will increase across the region, forcing the warm front across the forecast area this evening and overnight.

Moisture increase and forcing from the nocturnal low level jet will allow for small, mainly light showers to develop during the night. Also, sea fog will form and try to move inland. Right now it looks like the winds above the surface along with some lift will keep the fog away from the coast more patchy in nature.

The short wave will continue to push eastward on Saturday and help push the tail end of a surface cold front across the forecast area during Saturday afternoon. Decent Gulf moisture is expected to be over the forecast area on Saturday ahead of the front, and this should allow for widespread shower to develop as frontal forcing increases, with best rain chances right along and behind the front. Instability and shear are not too impressive, therefore not expecting the convection to be too strong and not expecting any severe weather or excessive rainfall.

Surface high pressure from Canada will build down into the forecast area behind the front allowing for much cooler and drier conditions that will end rain chances and any fog for later Saturday night and Sunday.

Deeper northwest flow and surface high settling into the forecast area will bring some below normal temperatures into the early part of the week. Coldest temperatures look to be on Monday night into Tuesday morning, when a light freeze, along with frost, will be possible down to near the I-10 corridor.

Still some question on the next storm system that will begin to influence the region overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The GFS has the surface low developing over the Southern Plains placing the forecast area in the warm sector with rich Gulf moisture to bring about the possibility of locally heavy rainfall, especially late Thursday into early Friday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF, has a surface low hugging the coast, that keeps the true warm sector and highly anomalous moisture offshore. Still plenty of time to watch this, and at this point will stick close to the national blend of models.

Rua

MARINE . Southeast winds will return tonight behind a departing warm front that will bring back warm and moist air tonight. Looks like during the overnight dew point readings in the mid 60s will begin moving over cooler near shore water temperatures that will create the potential for sea fog development. Hi-res guidance does show a good swath of visibilities below 1 nm right along the coast out about 20 nm from shortly after 06Z (midnight) until near the time the cold front arrives early Saturday afternoon, with SREF probabilities greater than 75 percent. Therefore, issued a marine dense fog advisory for the near shore coastal waters along with the coastal lakes and bays.

The cold front will move across the coastal waters on Saturday afternoon. Much cooler air will then move out into the coastal waters, along with an increase in the pressure gradient over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, north winds will become rather blustery and small craft advisory conditions will be likely from Saturday night into Monday.

Rua

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. AEX 59 71 37 52 / 40 50 10 0 LCH 62 73 44 54 / 30 60 40 10 LFT 62 75 45 53 / 40 50 40 10 BPT 63 73 45 56 / 30 60 30 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. TX . None. GM . Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ430-432-435- 450-452-455.



AVIATION . 26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 20 mi54 min 66°F 63°F1020.6 hPa (-1.2)
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 27 mi60 min 66°F 67°F1022.7 hPa
LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA 28 mi60 min 67°F 62°F1021.6 hPa
TXPT2 29 mi54 min 65°F 64°F1019.7 hPa (-1.3)
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 30 mi54 min 65°F 64°F1019.7 hPa (-1.0)
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 33 mi54 min SE 11 G 13 65°F 1021 hPa (-1.1)65°F

Wind History for Port Arthur, TX
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orange, Orange County Airport, TX5 mi59 minSE 77.00 miOvercast68°F65°F92%1022 hPa
Southland Field, LA18 mi79 minSE 9 G 1410.00 miOvercast68°F64°F89%1022.3 hPa
Beaumont/Port Arthur Southeast Texas Regional Airport, TX19 mi61 minESE 10 G 179.00 miOvercast68°F64°F90%1020.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KORG

Wind History from ORG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE8NE9E9E10E11E8E7E6E8E11
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1 day agoSE4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3SE5E6E7E4E5E6SE3--E8NE12NE8E10NE8
2 days agoS4S5S5S5S5S3S3S4S4S5S5S7S6S8S8
G14
S8S5S4S3CalmCalmCalmSE3S3

Tide / Current Tables for Orange (Old Navy Base), Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Rainbow Bridge, Neches River, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.