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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 201 Pm Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
This afternoon..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters choppy.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters rough.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake waters rough.
Saturday..South winds around 15 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Lake waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 201 Pm Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis..
light and variable winds and low seas will prevail today. A dry cold front will move through the coastal waters tonight resulting in moderate offshore flow Wednesday. Onshore flow becomes reestablished Thursday as high pressure shifts east of the area. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday as another cold front pushes through the region with offshore flow developing in its wake late Saturday through early next week.

FXUS64 KLCH 052343 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 543 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 159 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

The short term period will be quiet weather wise. Currently we have a high pressure that is over the western half of the area with a cold front extending from a low over the midwest down into north central TX. The front will push through the area over the day tomorrow however, with little to no moisture to speak of, we will not see a drop. The most that we will see out of it will be slightly stronger northerly flow that will bring in drier and cooler conditions. A surface high pressure will sink south over us on for part of the day Wednesday (tomorrow) before it moves off to the east tomorrow night and into Thursday morning. From there we will see winds return out of the south.

Temps today will max out in the mid 60s to lower 70s with tonight's lows falling into the mid 40s to upper 30s. Tomorrow will be much cooler due to that dry cold front with MaxTs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and MinTs mostly in the 30s. Return flow will help bring moisture into the area, with warmer temps returning.

Stigger/87

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 159 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

By Friday, the surface high pressure that has been the cause of the dry and cool weather will be shunted off to the east. This will allow for our surface flow to become southernly, bringing a moist and unstable air mass to our region. We will see PWATs jump from the 25th percentile to above the 75th percentile. This will set the stage for the main forecast concern, severe weather on Saturday. 

As an upper-level trough starts to dig south from the rockies. A cold front associated with the trough will bring widespread showers and storms to our region. The synoptic setup looks favorable for strong to severe storms, as a fast 250-mb jet (>100 kts) will be moving overhead with the trough. During this forecast package, the best conditions look to be north of our CWA. However, convective parameters for us will be high, with 0–6 km bulk shear values in the upper 50s and CAPE values over 1000 J/kg. This setup and convective values are enough to cause concern, as the SPC is placing us under a 15% area for severe weather on Saturday. So far out, there is still a lot of uncertainty, and this forecast will have to be adjusted as we get closer to Saturday. This looks to be a quick-moving system, so large amounts of rainfall are not expected, but once again, this event is far enough away that this could change.

Once the front passes, high pressure will settle in place, bringing more dry and cool weather. Behind the front, winds will be around 20 mph, with gusts around 30 mph.

Slaughter/14

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Cirrus continues to stream over the region from the southwest, resulting in BKN high cigs over the southern terminals and thinner more scattered clouds at AEX. Clouds will gradually decrease Wednesday morning, with winds become N-NE 8-12 KT.

24

MARINE
Issued at 159 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Light and variable winds and low seas will prevail today. A dry cold front will move through the coastal waters tonight resulting in moderate offshore flow Wednesday. Onshore flow becomes reestablished Thursday as high pressure shifts east of the area.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday as another cold front pushes through the region with offshore flow developing in its wake late Saturday through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 37 59 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 44 61 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 44 60 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 45 65 44 67 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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