Lower Grand Lagoon, FL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

June 15, 2024 4:39 PM CDT (21:39 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM
Moonrise 2:02 PM   Moonset 1:25 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 307 Pm Edt Sat Jun 15 2024 /207 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 15 2024/

This afternoon - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.

Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.

Sunday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 8 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.

Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Monday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 4 seconds and south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Monday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 5 seconds and south 2 feet at 8 seconds. Protected waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Tuesday - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Protected waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Protected waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Wednesday - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Protected waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Protected waters rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 307 Pm Edt Sat Jun 15 2024

Synopsis -
gentle to moderate southeast breezes will continue into Sunday. An unseasonable round of fresh to strong easterly breezes will get underway on Monday and continue through Wednesday, as pressure gradients tighten between strong high pressure off the u.s. Mid- atlantic coast and a deepening area of tropical low pressure over the bay of campeche. Seas will build in response to this and may lead to a few rounds of small craft advisory conditions. Showers and storms will be possible each day.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
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Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 151926 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 326 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A quiet but warm night is in store for us thanks to surface high pressure presiding over a mostly dry airmass by June standards.
Lingering convection is possible off the Nature Coast this evening.
Forecast low temperatures are widespread mid 70s - several degrees below normal. Meanwhile, an inverted trough is apparent over the SE Gulf. This feature is poised to drift NW/NNW overnight and advect tropical moisture our way. As a result, expect scattered showers/thunderstorms to spread from south to north early tomorrow morning, then shift inland through the afternoon. The seabreeze should provide an additional focus for convection. Sunday's peak PoP forecast is therefore in the chance to likely category.

Given that the 12Z HRRR depicts Precipitable Water ranging from 1.8- 2+ inches, there is potential for heavy rainfall capable of localized flooding from training cells. In addition, strong/gusty winds from water-loading microbursts are possible, for which decent signals exist via the SREF Wet Microburst Severity Index for Tallahassee/Apalachicola/Panama City. However, with minimal wind shear and recent dryness, there are no official risk outlooks by WPC/SPC. Otherwise, look for another hot/muggy day characterized by highs in the low/mid 90s (~98-102 heat indices).

SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Both upper level and surface high pressure will generally hold somewhere over the mid Atlantic seaboard. To our southwest, in the Gulf near the Bay of Campeche, low pressure will be deepening.
This will lead to a tighter pressure gradient developing over our Gulf waters and bring increasing winds. Gulf moisture will surge in over the waters and perhaps clipper our FL Panhandle counties, while the drier air from the high pressure system influences the region else where. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening over, but the drier air from the high should supress chances to about 15-30 percent over SW GA and FL Big Bend. West of these regions, PWATs may be a touch higher in SE AL and the W FL Panhandle where storm development is slightly more favorable and in the 20-40% range.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the start of the long term, upper level high pressure is forecast to be centered over the Carolinas, and it will lift to the north and east through the week. Dry conditions will prevail through the long term. However, we are watching an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche that has been highlighted by the NHC. With that low pressure to our southwest, and high pressure to our northeast, we will be between the pressure gradient, which will lead to breezy easterly winds over the region for the middle part of next week.
PWATs are forecast to be around 1.5" and high pressure will still be influencing our weather, so showers may form, but not expecting too much in the way of thunderstorms to develop. PoPs for the long term range from 20%-40%, with better chances closer to the coast.
Temperatures for the long term will have highs in the mid-90s and lows in the mid-70s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Terminals should remain VFR thru the period with mostly dry wx today and tonight. A field of 050-080 cumulus should dissipate after sunset. East to SE winds 10 kts or less go lgt/vrb this evening. This afternoon's seabreeze induces a southerly wind at ECP/TLH. By tmrw morning, convection spreads onshore from the Gulf, so intro'd SHRA for the FL TAF sites starting at 12Z in addition to a thunder PROB30 group from 15Z onward.

MARINE
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Gentle to moderate southeast breezes will continue into Sunday.
An unseasonable round of fresh to strong easterly breezes will get underway on Monday and continue through Wednesday, as pressure gradients tighten between strong high pressure off the U.S. Mid- Atlantic coast and a deepening area of tropical low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. Seas will build in response to this and may lead to a few rounds of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Showers and storms will be possible each day.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A surge of tropical moisture spreading inland from the Gulf yields scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday capable of wetting rains. Axis of precipitation then shifts to the seabreeze zone and areas west to NW Monday-Tuesday. In addition, brisk easterly winds usher in high afternoon dispersions as the pressure gradient tightens across parts of the region. Otherwise, expect continued hot/muggy conditions with high temperatures in the 90s and peak heat indices up to the low 100s.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will remain possible during the afternoon hours with the seabreeze. Heavy rainfall is possible during these storms which could lead to localized flash flooding. However, current river levels are good and are not concerned with significant flooding for the next several days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 75 93 74 94 / 10 60 20 30 Panama City 77 87 76 91 / 20 70 30 40 Dothan 73 94 73 92 / 0 50 20 30 Albany 73 96 73 94 / 0 20 20 20 Valdosta 73 96 72 94 / 10 40 20 20 Cross City 71 94 71 94 / 30 70 20 30 Apalachicola 79 85 78 88 / 40 70 40 40

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through late Monday night for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi70 minS 14G17
PCBF1 10 mi52 min 85°F 86°F29.93
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 48 mi52 min 85°F 87°F29.95
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 51 mi100 minSE 7 86°F 30.0178°F


Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPAM TYNDALL AFB,FL 9 sm31 minS 1110 smMostly Cloudy86°F79°F79%29.92
KECP NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTL,FL 18 sm46 minSSE 1210 smClear91°F77°F63%29.92
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Wind History graph: PAM
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Tide / Current for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
   
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Channel entrance
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Sat -- 01:25 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM CDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:01 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:21 PM CDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:45 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
0.5
1
am
0.6
2
am
0.6
3
am
0.7
4
am
0.7
5
am
0.8
6
am
0.8
7
am
0.8
8
am
0.8
9
am
0.8
10
am
0.8
11
am
0.7
12
pm
0.6
1
pm
0.6
2
pm
0.5
3
pm
0.5
4
pm
0.5
5
pm
0.5
6
pm
0.5
7
pm
0.5
8
pm
0.5
9
pm
0.5
10
pm
0.5
11
pm
0.6


Tide / Current for Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Parker
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Sat -- 12:50 AM CDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:24 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:49 AM CDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:00 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:45 PM CDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:45 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
0.6
1
am
0.6
2
am
0.6
3
am
0.7
4
am
0.7
5
am
0.8
6
am
0.9
7
am
1
8
am
1
9
am
1
10
am
1
11
am
1
12
pm
0.9
1
pm
0.8
2
pm
0.7
3
pm
0.7
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
0.6
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
0.5
8
pm
0.5
9
pm
0.6
10
pm
0.6
11
pm
0.6


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Northwest Florida,




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