Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Surface high pressure shifts east in response to an approaching cold front moving in from the OH Valley and Central Plains today. Low- level winds respond by becoming southwesterly, which will initiate a brief warming trend early this week under mostly sunny skies. There may be some patchy shallow ground fog around sunrise over parts of the Wiregrass, SW GA, and FL Big Bend.

This morning's temperatures rebound from upper 40s/low 50s to mid 80s away from the immediate coast in the afternoon. A modest influx of moisture combined with slightly elevated winds raises tonight's low temperatures to the upper 50s/low 60s. Isolated locations in the Big Bend and/or South-Central GA could see mid 50s if the boundary layer can decouple.

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Monday is forecast to be the warmest of the forecast period with high temperatures surging to near 90 degrees ahead of the aforementioned front. Frontal passage is then expected Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Minimal moisture return precludes rain chances, only some passing clouds. A much cooler and drier airmass filters in on the heels of northwest flow. Temperatures during that time won't follow a diurnal trend, but a NW to SW minT/maxT gradient is on tap for Tuesday - mid 50s to low 60s and upper 70s to low 80s, respectively.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Solid cold-air advection sets the stage for a notable cooling trend mid week. Wednesday's lows range from upper 40s to mid 50s from north to south, followed by more uniform high temperatures close to 70 degrees that afternoon. Wednesday night/Thursday morning is forecast to the chilliest time of the period as widespread mid 40s are expected away from the immediate coast! A gradual warming trend then gets underway with thermometers rising by a few degrees each successive day.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Nighttime microphysics satellite shows swaths of fog/low stratus extending from SE GA into the Suwannee Valley early this morning.
The nearby VLD has been reporting MVFR vsbys. Elsewhere, VFR is ongoing under SKC and calm winds. There is be brief window for shallow ground fog/mist to possibly form invof of ABY/DHN/TLH for the next 1-2 hrs, but current trends don't foster much confidence. Expect west winds around 5 kts today with continued VFR and minimal cloud cover.

MARINE
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Surface high pressure maintains fair weather favorable boating conditions into early next week. By Tuesday, a cold front sweeps across the waters, ushering in brisk northwest winds that increase to advisory levels that night and persist through mid week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Dry weather holds the next few days. Surface high pressure gives way to a progressive cold front early this week, thus prompting winds go from westerly ahead of the front today-tomorrow, to northwesterly behind it on Tuesday. Low dispersions are forecast over parts of Apalachicola Nat'l Forest down to the Forgotten coast this afternoon, followed by pockets of high dispersions on Monday.
Minimum RH stays healthily above 30% before tanking to as low as upper 20s on Tuesday when the region should be post frontal.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

An extended stretch of dry weather precludes flooding concerns over the next several days. Aucilla River - Lamont remains in action stage, but levels continue to fall. Meanwhile, a few rivers in the Suwannee basin are cresting in action stage.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 85 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 66 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 85 62 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 59 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 85 58 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 56 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 82 64 83 67 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.