Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:10PM Friday October 18, 2019 7:30 PM CDT (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:42PMMoonset 11:04AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 527 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019 /427 Pm Cdt Fri Oct 18 2019/
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Tonight..East winds 35 knots with gusts to around 50 knots becoming southeast 45 knots with gusts to around 65 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming southwest 40 to 45 knots with gusts to around 60 knots late in the night. Seas 11 to 16 feet with occasional seas up to 20 feet building to 16 to 21 feet with occasional seas up to 27 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds after midnight. Protected waters extremely rough. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 30 to 35 knots with gusts to around 50 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 16 feet with occasional seas up to 20 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds in the afternoon. Protected waters very rough. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 20 knots decreasing to 10 knots in the late evening. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds after midnight. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain showers in the evening.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 15 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 527 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Synopsis.. Tropical storm nestor formed in the central gulf of mexico of mexico this Friday afternoon and is expected to make landfall in the florida panhandle around or just west of apalachicola around daybreak Saturday. Tropical storm force winds and high seas are expected starting this evening and continuing at least through the morning hours. Seas could reach 27 feet offshore of the panhandle with seas up to 13 feet expected in apalachee bay. Conditions will improve by Saturday night with light winds and diminishing seas on Sunday and Monday. Winds and seas are expected to increase somewhat ahead of an approaching cold front on Monday night into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.11, -85.74     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 182236
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
636 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Aviation
[through 00z Sunday]
conditions will deteriorate through the evening and overnight
hours as TS nestor moves toward the northern gulf coast. As bands
of showers move inland, flt conds will decrease with predominately
ifr conds in showers from south to north with time. As well, wind
fields will strengthen as nestor approaches and moves inland
Saturday morning. The track forecast from NHC continues nestor
into SW ga later Saturday morning and exits by early Saturday
afternoon. Conds slowly improve through the day Saturday from
south to north as nestor tracks northeast.

Prev discussion [315 pm edt]
Near term short term [tonight through Sunday night]
The tropical disturbance in the gulf of mexico has been upgraded
to tropical storm nestor as of 2 pm edt this Friday afternoon with
sustained winds of 60 mph. Nestor was moving to the northeast at
22 mph.

The following are the expected impacts in our area from TS nestor
through at least midday Saturday:
1) storm surge: life threatening inundation of up to 5 feet is expected
for coastal areas from indian pass eastward to dixie county. A
storm surge warning is in effect for those areas. Minor coastal
flooding with inundation less than 3 feet is expected from gulf
county westward to walton county. A coastal flood advisory is in
effect for those areas.

2) wind: sustained tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater
are expected near the florida panhandle and big bend coasts.

Across inland portions of the florida panhandle and big bend,
although sustained winds may not quite reach tropical storm force,
frequent tropical storm force wind gusts are expected, especially
in heavier rain squalls. Thus, the wind impacts are expected to
be similar and the tropical storm watch for the inland portions of
the panhandle and big bend has been upgraded to a tropical storm
warning.

3) tornadoes: the tornado threat is elevated across eastern
portions of the panhandle and big bend, where a couple of
tornadoes are possible.

4) flooding: given the fast moving nature of the system combined
with the ongoing drought, the threat for widespread flooding rain
is minimal overall. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are expected across portions of southeast alabama and adjacent
southwest georgia with widespread 2 to 4 inch amounts expected for
the florida panhandle and adjacent section of south-central
georgia. Localized amounts near the coast could be as high as 6
inches. The greatest threat for localized flash flooding appears
to be for urban and poor drainage areas across the panhandle and
big bend where rainfall rates are expected to be the heaviest.

We will see gradually improving conditions across the tri-state
area by late Saturday afternoon evening with dry weather Sunday
through Sunday night. Lows tonight will range from around 60
northwest to the upper 60s to lower 70s southeast. Lows Saturday
night and Sunday night will mostly be in the upper 50s to middle
60s. Highs Saturday will range from the lower 70s northwest to
lower 80s southeast. Highs on Sunday will be around 80.

Long term [Monday through Friday]
A fairly active pattern is expected in the long term with a couple
additional chances for widespread rain and a few thunderstorms.

The first chance is expected to arrive with a cold front on
Monday into Tuesday with the second chance arriving with another
cold front around Friday. Both systems appear to have enough
dynamics and instability to include a mention of thunderstorms as
well.

Marine
Tropical storm force winds and high seas are expected starting
late today and continuing into Saturday. Seas could reach 20 feet
offshore of the panhandle with seas of 10 to 15 feet expected in
apalachee bay. Conditions will improve by Saturday night with
light winds and diminishing seas on Sunday and Monday. Winds and
seas are expected to increase somewhat ahead of an approaching
cold front on Monday night into Tuesday.

Fire weather
No fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
Antecedent conditions have flash flood guidance values rather
high, so the amount of rain expected should not produce more than
a localized flood threat in urban areas. Thus, we have held off
on a flash flood watch for now and will continue to evaluate the
new rainfall guidance through the day. The greatest threat for
localized flash flooding appears to be for urban and poor drainage
areas across the panhandle and big bend where rainfall rates are
expected to be the heaviest.

Most area rivers are still quite low, so although this rain event
will cause some rises on area rivers, none are currently expected
to reach action stage during this event.

After this system, a cold front is expected to bring additional
rainfall to the area on Monday night into Tuesday, followed by
the chance of additional rain towards the end of next week. If
these systems pan out, then the cumulative effect may ease drought
conditions somewhat across the region.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 72 77 60 82 62 100 90 20 10 0
panama city 66 77 62 82 70 90 70 20 10 10
dothan 61 72 57 80 61 90 80 20 0 0
albany 62 73 57 79 61 90 90 30 10 0
valdosta 66 80 62 79 61 90 90 30 10 0
cross city 68 81 66 83 64 90 90 40 10 10
apalachicola 72 80 64 81 70 100 80 20 10 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... Tropical storm warning for calhoun-central walton-coastal bay-
coastal dixie-coastal franklin-coastal gulf-coastal
jefferson-coastal taylor-coastal wakulla-gadsden-holmes-
inland bay-inland dixie-inland franklin-inland gulf-inland
jefferson-inland taylor-inland wakulla-jackson-lafayette-
leon-liberty-madison-north walton-south walton-washington.

High rip current risk through Sunday morning for coastal bay-
coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

Coastal flood advisory until 9 am edt 8 am cdt Saturday for
coastal bay-coastal gulf-south walton.

High surf warning until 8 pm edt 7 pm cdt Saturday for coastal
bay-coastal gulf-south walton.

High surf advisory until 8 pm edt Saturday for coastal franklin.

Ga... Wind advisory from 5 am to 8 pm edt Saturday for baker-ben hill-
berrien-brooks-calhoun-clay-colquitt-cook-decatur-dougherty-
early-grady-irwin-lanier-lee-lowndes-miller-mitchell-
quitman-randolph-seminole-terrell-thomas-tift-turner-worth.

Al... Wind advisory from 4 am to 2 pm cdt Saturday for coffee-dale-
geneva-henry-houston.

Gm... Tropical storm warning for apalachee bay or coastal waters from
keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm-coastal
waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20
nm-coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl
out 20 nm-coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola
fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa
walton county line fl out 20 nm-waters from suwannee river
to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from
apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters
from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20
to 60 nm.

Near term... Barry
short term... Barry
long term... Barry
aviation... Scholl
marine... Barry
fire weather... Scholl
hydrology... Dvd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi43 min NE 8.9 G 16 79°F
PCBF1 10 mi49 min ENE 12 G 22 60°F 77°F1009.6 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 48 mi43 min ENE 15 G 19 65°F 75°F1009.6 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 50 mi106 min ENE 8 1011 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL8 mi95 minENE 11 G 1810.00 miLight Rain59°F56°F92%1010.1 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL17 mi38 minNE 11 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F55°F87%1010.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAM

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N5N5N5NE4NE7NE7NE8NE6NE5E6E6E8E10E7E10E9--E9E9E10
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1 day agoNW6W7NW10N9N6N7N11NE7N10N8NE10NE9NE8NE8N11NE7N5CalmNW3W3SW6SW4W4NW6
2 days agoS7S6S6S6SW8SW6W10W11W12W7W9W8W12NW12W14W13NW9NW8NW11NW11NW7N9N9N5

Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:36 AM CDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.51.41.20.90.70.50.30.20.20.10.20.30.40.50.60.811.11.31.41.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Parker
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:23 AM CDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:00 PM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:40 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.91.91.91.71.61.41.10.90.60.40.30.20.20.20.30.40.60.811.21.41.61.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.