Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dayton, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Fair weather is expected tonight with clear skies and light south-southeasterly winds. Low temperatures overnight will range in the lower to mid 50s inland and the upper 50s to lower 60s over the Houston Metro and coastal locations. Southerly flow will continue to supply moisture from the Gulf and maintain a warming trend on Saturday, with highs already back in the 80s for many locations. Rising humidity will lead to very low dew point departure during the overnight to early morning hours through Sunday morning and patchy fog may develop over portions of Southeast TX (if winds are light enough).

Sunday will be our warmest day this weekend as moisture converges ahead of the next system and winds become south-southwesterly, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s - roughly 8 to 14 degrees above normal. It will at least be breezy as the pressure gradient tightens (winds at around 15 to 20 mph) and a low level jet strengthens, but be prepared for the warmth if you plan to spend time and work outdoors. For those wanting to visit the beaches, make sure to verify the marine and beach flag conditions given that winds and seas will be building and strong rip currents may develop.

We are still expecting showers and thunderstorms sometime late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening as a mid-upper level trough deepens over the Plains Sunday morning and a fast moving cold front moves across Southeast Texas late afternoon to evening. Even with having southerly flow today and Saturday, instability and moisture levels on Sunday morning will be rather limited with PWs still under 1.0 inch. Forecast soundings also show the environment to be capped possibly even into the mid afternoon hours. Thus, its more likely to see the shower and thunderstorm activity occuring along the frontal boundary as conditions become more unstable, moisture converges, and lift increases just ahead of the front. The 30-45 knot low level jet will also be present during the afternoon hours, strongest over areas near and east of I-45, thus, we will have to keep an eye on how much shear will be present as these storms roll through. There is the potential for some of these storms to become strong to severe and SPC continues a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) over the Piney Woods region (where the strongest low level winds will be) and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of Southeast TX.

As mentioned above, the front is to pass through Southeast TX very quickly - going from the Brazos Valley to the coastal waters in about 5-6 hours. In the wake of the front, cold dry air will quickly filter in along with a 50-60 knot low level jet. Expect strong northerly winds Sunday night into Monday morning with speeds ranging between 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph, highest over the coastal locations. Thus, Wind Advisories may be needed, in particular over the coastal locations. Temperatures will dip fast on Sunday night with lows expected to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s for many locations by sunrise on Monday. Hello winter?

Winds relax Monday afternoon with colder conditions prevailing.
I'm not going to sugar coat that it will be a little shocking going from highs in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday to highs in the 50s on Monday. But we will take it any day :D! The one thing we will have to be careful with on Monday is the potential for elevated fire weather given how dry and breezy we will be (more details on the Fire Weather Discussion below).

Monday night, the second night of CAA, will be the coldest with lows in the lower 30s (near freezing) over the Piney Woods, the mid 30s to lower 40s for the rest of the inland portions, and the mid to upper 40s along the coasts. BRRR. The fair weather conditions will prevail for the rest of the work week.
Unfortunately, southerly flow already returns by Tuesday and will once again bring us a warming trend through the rest of the work week and highs will bounce back into the 80s by Thursday. Sigh.

Cotto

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR throughout the 00Z TAF period. Winds will decrease tonight to 2-5 KTS and some locations may see VRB winds at times. S-SE winds will strengthen again on Sat to around 08-14 KTS with gusts of around 18-22 KTS in the afternoon. Localized patchy fog is possible over portions of SE Texas.

Looking ahead for the Sat night period, low level moisture will be on the rise and could lead to MVFR ceilings over most locations in SE Texas. There is the chance for some sites to have patchy fog during the late night to early morning hours, but will depend on whether winds will be light enough. In addition, a low level jet of 30-35 KTS will be moving in from the northeast and we might see some periods of llvl wind shear at times early Sun. The jet is expected to continue to strengthen and we could have wind shear occuring well into the early afternoon hours.

Cotto

MARINE
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue Sunday morning. Seas will be 2-3 feet through Saturday night, building on Sunday as winds increase ahead of a strong cold front. There's the potential for strong rip currents to develop on Sunday as winds and seas build.

The cold front will move into the coastal waters very quickly sometime Sunday evening or early Sunday night. Associated showers and thunderstorms will be mostly focused along the boundary as it pushes through and some of these storms could become strong to severe. In the wake of the front, strong northerly winds will develop. Expect speeds to range between 30-35 knots and gusts between 40-45 knots Sunday night into Monday. Seas will also build to 8-14 feet. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings will be likely. In addition, low water levels are possible in the bays.

Winds and seas will gradually decrease Monday night into Tuesday.
Light onshore winds return Tuesday night and continue into the end of the work week.

Cotto

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Very dry air will filter across Southeast TX in the wake of Sunday's front. Expect elevated fire weather risk as afternoon RH values lower into the upper teens to lower 20s on Monday and northerly winds range between 15-20 mph with gusts of around 25 mph. Dry conditions prevail on Tuesday, although winds will be becoming southeasterly and much lighter. RH values will begin to increase mid week into the end of the work week as south- southeasterly winds prevail and low level moisture recovers.

Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 63 88 38 55 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 65 86 44 56 / 0 10 40 0 Galveston (GLS) 68 77 48 59 / 0 0 60 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.