The Woodlands, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for The Woodlands, TX

June 14, 2024 9:41 AM CDT (14:41 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM
Moonrise 12:49 PM   Moonset 12:39 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 512 Am Cdt Fri Jun 14 2024

Today - Northeast winds around 5 knots, veering to southeast late. Bay waters smooth.

Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots, easing to around 5 knots late. Bay waters smooth.

Saturday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, veering to southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.

Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.

Sunday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, rising to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth, rising to slightly choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.

Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Monday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Tuesday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 512 Am Cdt Fri Jun 14 2024

Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
light to moderate onshore winds and low seas will prevail through early Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, onshore winds and seas will begin to gradually build as the gradient steepens between a developing low pressure system over the bay of campeche and an area of high pressure over the eastern united states. Small craft advisory conditions are possible starting as early as Monday and continuing until as late as the end of the week. By the middle of the week, seas could build to 7-10 feet with sustained winds offshore averaging around 25 knots with gusts over 30 knots. For now, our forecast keeps conditions under gale criteria. But we cannot rule out gale conditions, or at least gusts to gale force, by the middle of the week across the gulf waters. There will also be a daily risk of showers and Thunderstorms. Rain and Thunderstorms could be heavy at times during the Sunday to Thursday time frame.
mariners are advised to Monitor the aforementioned low pressure system. The national hurricane center currently estimates that the system has a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression by the middle of next week. Stronger winds and building seas will remain likely even if the system does not develop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near The Woodlands, TX
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Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 141129 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 629 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The primary weather feature of interest continues to be a broad area of low pressure that is expected to materialize in the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Monday or Tuesday. The primary concern from this feature will be the potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms during the Sunday to Thursday time frame. The low is also expected to bring rough coastal surf and hazardous winds/seas offshore through much of the upcoming week. The system is being monitored for possible tropical development (please see tropical discussion below for more details). However, the low's impacts to our region may end up being same regardless of tropical development.

It is worth mentioning that there is a fair amount of uncertainty (see tropical discussion). Therefore, it is advised that you keep up with the latest forecast as the situation evolves.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Upper ridging is slowly building its way eastward form the Desert Southwest, creating a more subsident environment aloft over Texas.
As a result, we can expect a subtle shift in the character of temperatures over the area the next couple of afternoons. Where yesterday was near/slightly above seasonal averages, with highs mostly in the lower 90s, with some hot spots pushing into the mid- 90s, we'll be slightly warmer today and tomorrow, with larger swaths of the area seeing highs in the mid-90s. Some hot spots may well creep up into the upper 90s. On the flip side, this morning's lows are likely to be the coolest of this short term stretch, though that's only a modest cooling. Think upper 60s way up north in Houston County, and still around 80 degrees on the Gulf Coast.
As onshore flow gradually returns, it will become vanishingly uncommon to see the temp slide below 70 degrees.

Of course, with Houston living so much of its life in the summertime on the edge of a heat advisory, above average temperatures instantly bring up questions around heat headlines.
For today and tomorrow, the expectations are that the modest increase in temperatures will mostly be offset by a modest decrease in dewpoints. As a result, peak heat index values look to range from just below 100 to 106 or 107 at the high end. This is beneath the threshold for a heat advisory, but is mighty close.
Using the experimental HeatRisk tool, the area shows between minor and moderate impacts (threat levels 2 and 3 of 5 on the HeatRisk scale). That shows this heat will pose some threat to broad populations, but not necessarily outside the typical historical context. There may be a bit more danger if you plan to have a weekend with significant outdoor exertion, however. Another experimental tool - the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature - indicates high risk of heat stress (level 4 of 5 on the WBGT risk scale).
Because WBGT considers not just temperature and humidity, but also factors like wind and solar intensity, it may be a good tool for those who will be spending significant time outdoors in open sun, and a need for those folks to take more precaution against heat illness.

Meanwhile, at the surface, we find ourself on the southwestern corner of a broad surface ridge stretched across the Southeastern US, giving us light, but generally easterly winds today. This should filter in some modestly drier air. The impacts here won't be big, but should be enough to help choke off most/all diurnal shower and storm activity. I've got some slight chance PoPs in the southwest around Matagorda Bay - down here, precipitable water values look to slide to only around 1.3-1.5 inches. But for the large majority of the area, the next couple of days should be rain-free
Which
is something you'll want to appreciate given the week coming up, but that's something for the long term forecaster to tell you about.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The long term is looking quite unsettled thanks to an area of low pressure that is expected to materialize over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. A building mid/upper ridge to the north is expected to push the low towards northeastern Mexico, possibly moving ashore by Wednesday or Thursday. A deep surge of tropical moisture on the east and north side of the low is expected to bring a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms during the Sunday to Thursday time frame. Global models are showing very impressive PWAT values by mid-week, increasing from 1.50-2.00 inches on Sunday/Monday to as high as 3.00 inches by Wednesday. Heavy rainfall will be a daily concern through the long term period. Current predicted Sun-Thu rainfall totals range from 3-6 inches along and south of I-10 to 1-3 inches farther north. But given the PWATs suggested by the guidance, we cannot rule out higher totals in some areas, especially during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame if guidance is correct about the PWAT values. WPC currently has the southern half of our CWA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for excessive rainfall on Monday. If current model trends hold, then the excessive rainfall risk would likely increase further by mid-week. Uncertainties exist regarding the future track and organization of the southwest Gulf low (see tropical discussion below). These uncertainties have implications on next week's weather here in southeast Texas. So please stay informed by frequently checking the latest forecast.

The gradient between the low and an area of high pressure over eastern CONUS is likely to result in rough surf and elevated tides along the coast. The model blend used in our wind grids show gusts over 30 MPH along the coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, with 20-25 MPH gusts farther inland. With such a strong and deep east to southeast flow from the Gulf, we opted to lean towards the NBM for our dew points. The NBM has a notoriously high bias when it comes to dew points. But with deep tropical flow, afternoon dew points could easily be well into the 70s. The one silver lining is that the afternoon temperatures are expected to be a little cooler than normal due to the clouds. After widespread low/mid 90s on Sunday, afternoon highs may remain in the 80s for much of the week across the CWA

Self

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Patchy fog cropping up about the area, with generally small to negligible impacts. We are seeing IFR VSBY at LBX, a notoriously fog-prone terminal. Should persist there for a few hours, but also clear up rapidly when fog does begin to dissipate as the sun rises higher.

Winds calm or nearly so today, and light/VRB winds should prevail, coming up only a bit in speed during the day. Northeast to east winds will be a bit more predominant as far as wind direction goes today, before we return to nearly calm conditions again tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds and low seas will prevail through early Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, onshore winds and seas will begin to gradually build as the gradient steepens between a developing low pressure system over the Bay of Campeche and an area of high pressure over the eastern United States. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible starting as early as Monday and continuing until as late as the end of the week. By the middle of the week, seas could build to 7-10 feet with sustained winds offshore averaging around 25 knots with gusts over 30 knots. For now, our forecast keeps conditions under gale criteria. But we cannot rule out gale conditions, or at least gusts to gale force, by the middle of the week across the Gulf waters.

TROPICAL
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A broad area of low pressure is expected to materialize in the Bay of Campeche by Monday or Tuesday. Global deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest a building ridge to the north will steer the low west to west-northwest towards northeastern Mexico, possibly moving ashore by Wednesday or Thursday. As of 200AM CDT, the National Hurricane Center has given this system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds are expected to extend well north of the low. Therefore, southeast Texas can expect showers/thunderstorms along with gusty winds (especially near the coast) even if the center of the low remains well to our south and tracks into Mexico. The steepening gradient between the low and a surface high over eastern CONUS will likely enhance an east to east-southeast wind fetch across the Gulf, resulting in hazardous seas, increasing rip current risks, and elevated tides.
Sunday-Thursday rainfall totals are expected to range from 3-6" along and south of I-10, with 1-3" for areas farther north.
Locally heavier totals are possible.

It is worth mentioning that computer models often struggle with tropical disturbances in the pre-development phase. In this case, a cohesive disturbance has yet to materialize. Therefore, forecast confidence will be on the low side until a more cohesive disturbance forms. Given the uncertainty, it is strongly advised that you keep up with the latest forecast updates.

Self

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 94 73 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 95 75 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 81 90 82 / 10 0 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 30 mi54 minN 4.1G7 84°F 29.93
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 41 mi54 minN 7G8.9 86°F29.95


Wind History for Manchester, TX
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Airport Reports
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KDWH
   
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Wind History graph: DWH
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Tide / Current for Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas
   
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Lynchburg Landing
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Fri -- 12:19 AM CDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 01:38 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:00 AM CDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM CDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:47 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:55 PM CDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:56 PM CDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet
12
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0.7
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0.7
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0.7
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0.7
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11
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0.7
12
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0.8
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0.9
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1
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1
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1.1
5
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1
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7
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0.9
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0.8
9
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0.7
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0.6
11
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0.6


Tide / Current for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
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Clear Lake
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Fri -- 12:19 AM CDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 12:51 AM CDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:37 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:39 AM CDT     0.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:19 AM CDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:47 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:47 PM CDT     0.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet
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0.3
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0.4
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11
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0.3


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas   
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Houston/Galveston, TX,




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