SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Surface high pressure and an upper level ridge build into the region over the weekend with light east and northeasterly flow expected.
Dry air and the broad subsidence over the region will keep rain chances out of the forecast. Expect temperatures above normal and in the low 90s.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Long term guidance remains in good agreement through much of the period. The upper level ridge from the weekend is expected to continue spreading east across the northern Gulf. This should keep temperatures warm and rain chances low to near zero into at least Tuesday and possibly longer depending on how the long range pattern evolves. Temperatures will continue to remain in the low 90s through Tuesday and possibly into later next week.

After Tuesday is when long range models begin to diverge very quickly. Part of the reason is due to the upper level pattern over the continental US and another point of uncertainty is what, if anything, becomes of a potential tropical disturbance across the Caribbean or southern Gulf. The potential disturbance that many ensemble members have indicated next week show the complex pattern that is often known as the Central American Gyre (CAG). Disturbances that originate out of the CAG typically have large uncertainty compared to tropical waves because they form from a very broad area of low pressure. This broad area of low pressure will typically have smaller areas of even lower pressure that rotate around the larger Gyre and are driven by stronger areas of showers and thunderstorms.
Models typically have a hard time identifying which one of these smaller areas of low pressure rotating in the Gyre could become a tropical disturbance. So when you combine the large uncertainty in the Gyre along with uncertainty in the upper level pattern over the continental US it's one reason why ensembles next week still show possibilities from Texas to the East Coast of Florida.
Additionally, all these possibilities are assuming one system even forms at all.

So summing the long term outlook up, we'll be warm and dry through Tuesday but our eyes remain on tropics. By early next week, we'll likely begin to get a better idea if we need to watch for anything moving up out of the Caribbean, but for now enjoy the sunshine and don't forget the sunscreen.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A bit of patchy fog will be possible along the I-75 corridor and may affect KVLD later this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Winds remain light and variable and seas remain low through today.
This weekend, easterly winds will become established and hold through the middle of next week. This will lead to an increase of seas of 1 to 3 feet, with the larger waves being found offshore.
Cautionary conditions may be observed next week during the overnight hours if we're able to get the stronger easterly surges.
Dry weather prevails through the weekend, with showers and storms starting to creep back into the forecast early or mid next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Dry conditions and relatively light winds are expected for the next couple of days with high pressure over the area. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Dry conditions look to persist through the weekend and into early next week. At this time there are no hydrology concerns; however, it is worth noting that the CPC has above normal chances for precipitation in the 8-10 day forecast. This is likely due to the anticipated development of a tropical cyclone in either the northwest Caribbean or southeast Gulf. At this time it is too early to determine what, if any type, of hydrology impacts we might see. Especially since there is high uncertainty with the ensemble and global models of where this system could go. Stay tuned to the forecast.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 89 70 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 90 72 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 90 70 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 89 69 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 88 68 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 90 69 90 68 / 10 0 10 0 Apalachicola 87 74 87 74 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.