Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Parker, FL

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:21PM Monday August 19, 2019 11:25 AM CDT (16:25 UTC) Moonrise 9:57PMMoonset 9:39AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Expires:201908192100;;469950 Fzus52 Ktae 191445 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 1045 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-192100- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1045 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019 /945 Am Cdt Mon Aug 19 2019/
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1045 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis.. Winds around 10 to 15 knots today will fall overnight and remain low for the rest of the week. Likewise, wave heights will fall to 2 feet tonight and remain 2 feet or less for the rest of the week. Daily chances for showers and Thunderstorms will continue through the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parker, FL
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location: 30.13, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 191501
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1101 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Update
Active morning across the region as very heavy rain has caused
localized flash flooding and other flooding across coastal
portions of the panhandle. All this flooding is due to stationary
front that is draped across the region combined with very high
moisture content across the forecast area producing widespread
showers and storms. Precipitable water content on this mornings
sounding measured at 2.15 inches this morning.

No updates were made to the forecast this morning but the previous
discussion below highlights our concerns for the flood risk
through the afternoon.

Prev discussion [637 am edt]
Near term [through today]
A narrow upper trough will continue across the region today with a
weak surface trough as well. Deep tropical moisture will also remain
in place with precipitable water values over 2 inches. As a result,
a high coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms is expected
through the day today across the area. Some of the rain will be
heavy at times. The main issue is what to do with the flood watch
across the southeast big bend, either let it expire, extend it for
just those counties, or extend it and expand it northward? Guidance
indicates that the main focus for heavy rain today will be north of
the flood watch area across southwest and south-central georgia.

However, there could still be a few bands of heavy rain that develop
across the southeast big bend through the morning hours before
activity tends to lift northward in the afternoon. As for areas
farther to the north, the flash flood guidance values are generally
3-4 inches in a 3-6 hour time period. Some of the storms today
appear capable of producing these amounts, but this will generally
be in small pockets rather than over a large area. Our local
ensemble of hi-res guidance indicates about a 20-30 percent chance
of exceeding flash flood guidance today across most of the forecast
area. Since the threat of flooding is expected to be localized
rather than widespread at this time, the preference is to not
blanket a large area with a watch. We will continue to monitor radar
trends and later guidance closely through the morning hours and make
a decision at the last minute on whether to extend and expand the
three county watch currently in effect through 8 am.

Short term [tonight through Wednesday]
Overall chances for showers and thunderstorms will come down
slightly from about 80% to 60%. The narrow upper level trough will
begin to weaken and slowly drift northeastward, allowing for
diminishing upper level enhancement of convection the next few days.

Pw values of 2"+ are expected to continue across the area through
Tuesday. Then Tuesday night into Wednesday, slightly drier air (pw
of 1.5-2") will work its way into western portions of the area,
while the axis of deeper moisture shifts eastward into the eastern
fl big bend and NE fl. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s and
lows will be in the low 70s.

Long term [Wednesday night through Monday]
A more diurnal, seabreeze driven pattern will resume with a weak
pressure pattern in place at the lower and upper levels. Deeper
moisture (as seen in pw values increasing) will return to western
portions of the area on Thursday and remain in place into early next
week. As a result of the increase in moisture, pops will increase
again during the long term period. Highs will be mostly in the low
90s with lows in the low 70s.

Aviation
[through 12z Tuesday]
tricky set of tafs this morning with patchy ifr and MVFR cigs
across the area this morning, on and off rounds of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day, and potentially some more
br low CIGS late tonight. The lowest CIGS that develop this
morning should lift to (or at least scatter out to)VFR, but low
vis could develop in rounds with storms. For now, only have sites
dropping to MVFR on and off through the day, with the only exception
being ifr CIGS at vld this morning.

Marine
Winds around 10 to 15 knots today will fall overnight and remain low
for the rest of the week. Likewise, wave heights will fall to 2 feet
tonight and remain 2 feet or less for the rest of the week. Daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
period.

Fire weather
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
relative humidity values remaining above critical levels.

Hydrology
As mentioned above, pockets of heavy rain will be the main threat
today across the area. Some localized areas of flash flooding are
possible. In addition, the steinhatchee river is continuing a slow
rise. This basin will be near the southern edge of the bands of rain
this morning.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 84 73 88 72 92 70 30 40 10 40
panama city 85 75 87 75 89 70 30 40 20 40
dothan 89 72 88 71 90 70 40 60 30 50
albany 86 73 87 73 91 70 50 60 30 50
valdosta 83 72 87 72 91 80 20 30 20 40
cross city 84 72 91 73 91 60 10 20 30 50
apalachicola 84 76 87 75 88 80 30 30 10 30

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through late tonight for coastal bay-
coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

Flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for coastal taylor-
inland taylor-lafayette.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Dobbs
near term... Dvd
short term... Nguyen
long term... Nguyen
aviation... Nguyen
marine... Nguyen
fire weather... Dvd
hydrology... Dvd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 3 mi56 min SE 7 G 11 85°F
PCBF1 15 mi62 min S 8 G 11 80°F 86°F1019.2 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 44 mi56 min WNW 5.1 G 8 73°F 85°F1020 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 46 mi101 min WNW 9.9 1020 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL4 mi30 minS 65.00 miRain74°F72°F96%1019.6 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL18 mi33 minSSE 1110.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity82°F75°F79%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAM

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Last 24hrW14
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W13W15SW10SE6NE3SW7W12W9W5--------SW10
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Calm--NW16--S6
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2 days agoW9W10SW10CalmSW6SW9S10S8S7SW10--S10----SW10SW10SW8SW9SW7SW9SW8SW7SW7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Parker
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:11 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:38 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:34 PM CDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:56 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:03 PM CDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.90.90.911111.11.11.21.31.31.31.31.31.31.21.11110.9

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:11 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:39 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:33 PM CDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:56 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:01 PM CDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.90.90.911111.11.11.21.31.31.31.31.31.31.21.11110.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.