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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 851 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight cst tonight...
.small craft exercise caution in effect from midnight cst tonight through Monday morning...
Rest of tonight..North winds near 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers.

GMZ500 851 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
strong winds and rough seas will gradually improve tonight and Monday as high pressure settles into the area. Another low pressure system deepening over the central gulf on Tuesday through Friday will increase easterly flow to near 20 knots. Seas will once again turn rough as the combination of wind waves and swell pushes seas to around 7 to 10 feet in the open gulf waters.

FXUS64 KLIX 102321 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 521 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

The difficult forecasting and need for complex discussion ended with the passing of the frontal system this morning. Currently, the H5 trough axis trailing the surface front is almost directly over the area. CAA will be the order of a day or so, with northwesterly flow dominating the area. As the upper level trough moves east into Monday it relaxes and flow becomes zonal by Tuesday. By late Tuesday a cutoff low is developing over the desert southwest causing upper level flow to be southern stream dominant with southwesterly flow across the area. At the surface the high pressure currently to the west is moving into the area, becoming centered over us by Monday morning. It pushes to the NNE, but remains dominant through the short term period ending Wednesday morning.

Starting with the easiest answer to what these atmospheric conditions mean, it will be dry with very little to no chance of rain. Winds are currently out of the northwest to north being driven by the transition between low pressure to high pressure.
They are fairly high, on the tail end of gale warning conditions offshore, but should be relaxing this afternoon into Small Craft Advisory range through tomorrow morning. As the surface high pressure begins to dominate the area and move on past, winds will lighten becoming variable and ending up easterly. Temperatures tonight are a little tricky. Clear skies and the northwest flow will put overnight lows just below and at freezing in our SW MS counties and adjacent northern tier of LA parishes, ranging north to south from 30 in McComb, MS to 32 in Amite, LA. Over the rest of the area lows will be in the mid to upper 30s. So, protecting your pets and tender plants will be a concern tonight. Skies should be clear through Tuesday, but with the shift of the upper level flows temperatures will be in a slow climb and this will continue as skies become partly cloudy Tuesday into Wednesday.
High temperatures should be in the upper 50s warming into the low 60s Tuesday. Of note, associated with the lower temperatures and high pressure, RHs will be dropping into the mid 30% range Monday and Tuesday afternoons in the SW MS counties and adjacent northern tier of LA parishes.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

A significant spread in the various deterministic model solutions continues to exist in the extended period. All of the guidance is in agreement that a closed low over the Four Corners region at the start of the period will move east into Texas by Friday. Further to the south, over the central and southern Gulf, several of the global models indicate the development of a strong low pressure system, but the spatial orientation of this low differs greatly. Beyond Friday, the forecast spread deviates even further with some of the deterministic models indicating a deep longwave trough forming over the eastern third of the CONUS as the closed low over Texas merges with a northern stream trough diving into the Midwest. These solutions have a much stronger surface low move across Florida and then up the eastern seaboard. Other models show the closed low over Texas remaining intact and separate from the northern stream energy.
The closed low eventually moves toward the Gulf coast and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and a strong surface low forms beneath the upper low over the forecast area. At the same time, a much weaker surface low in the Gulf remains further south and eventually dissipates over the weekend. Given these large spreads in the deterministic solutions, have opted to stick with an ensemble based forecast in the extended period.

An analysis of the GEFS and EPS output indicates a fairly significant low pressure anomaly both at the surface and aloft from Friday through Sunday over the Gulf coast. The 500mb anomaly is actually a bit more supportive of the closed low solution, but confidence remains too low latch onto that given deterministic solution. Given the large discrepancies, have largely stuck with the NBM deterministic output for the extended period. This output has temperatures remaining near to slightly below average with highs near 60 and lows in the 40s and low 50s beneath mostly cloudy to overcast skies. Rain chances will increase as early as Friday, but the highest probabilities continue to be Saturday into Saturday night at 30 to 40 percent. Given the cool and stable nature of the airmass and lack of instability in the low to mid-levels, no thunderstorm activity is expected. A more stratiform light to moderate rain will be most likely. Additionally, persistent easterly flow will allow for coastal flooding issues to develop on east facing shores later this week, and coastal flood products will likely be needed as early as Wednesday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

With dry high pressure dominating the area, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light northeast to calm winds can be expected through the period at all sites away from the immediate south shore of Lake Pontchartrain where winds will remain a bit stronger but should gradually ease through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 339 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

The frontal passage early this morning left winds out of the northwest to north in the 25 to 30 knot range in the coastal offshore waters with frequent gusts to 34 knots there. These conditions are expected through early afternoon before winds ease somewhat. There will be a brief lull in hazardous conditions Monday afternoon and much of the overnight hours before winds and waves increase again. Expect that Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines, or Small Craft Advisories will be necessary over most or all of the waters for a significant portion of the forecast period from Tuesday through the end of the workweek, and perhaps beyond.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 30 57 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 34 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 33 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 42 57 45 60 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 35 58 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 34 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ577.

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Sun -- 06:37 AM CST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
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