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AMZ452 Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 345 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period 11 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas around 3 feet. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 345 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis..
tropical storm ophelia will continue to track northward to the northeast of the region today, and weak high pressure will then build over the area through Sunday. A high pressure ridge over the area on Monday will lift northward and then build, resulting in increasing easterly winds Tuesday through Wednesday. An inverted trough of low pressure is expected to develop east of the waters mid to late in the week resulting in increased chances of showers and Thunderstorms.
sea heights will slowly improve over area waters today but areas of hazardous seas will continue most of the day. Another period of elevated winds and seas will be possible late next week.
Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 19, 2023 at 1200 utc...
52 nautical miles east southeast of flagler beach. 61 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 68 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 87 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 231205 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 805 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 804 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals.
Northwesterly surface winds of 5-10 knots will prevail at the terminals through at least 18Z. The Atlantic sea breeze will develop along the coast early this afternoon and will then push inland, resulting in surface winds shifting to onshore and increasing to around 10 knots before 19Z at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals, with this wind shift reaching the inland terminals before sunset. Surface winds will then veer to southerly early this evening before diminishing at the inland terminals towards midnight.

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

TS Ophelia will move through eastern portions of NC early this morning which leaves our area in a deep northwesterly flow and dry conditions. PWAT are now firmly below 1 inch over the entire forecast area, and weak sfc high pres is over the region. The sfc ridge axis extends from weak high pres over TN around 1016 to north FL. Cooler sfc temps compared to last night by 5-10 deg.
Winds are light northwest or calm with clear skies.

NEAR TERM
Through Tonight...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Ophelia lifts northward today and a weak trough will extend across SC and central GA later in the day, while weak high pres ridge moves toward the north central/easter GOMEX. This will result in the mean layer northwest flow to shift more northwest- west and will decrease by mid to late aftn. PWATS will remain near and mostly below 1 inch and model soundings show mostly clear or clear skies continuing with just some high clouds at times north zones. So should be another warm day and low humidity around 35-40 percent, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and because the Atlantic sea breeze will move into the coast, beaches will see max temps around the mid 80s as well.

Tonight, mid to upper level trough extending across the area will begin to shift to the northwest as high pres aloft builds in behind Ophelia. Again, skies clear except for some occasional high clouds. Min temps will again be mostly in the lower to mid 60s with light to calm winds expected.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Dry conditions will continue into Sunday as surface ridging is in place and we start the day with PWATs less than an inch area wide. PWATs and mean moisture does tend to slowly creep up through Sunday as a stalled front south of southern Florida begins to lift northward. A shower and perhaps a rumble of thunder can't be completely ruled out over southern areas Sunday evening, and near the coast overnight into Monday morning. Though for now, have left out POP chances almost entirely through at least dawn on Monday.
The light flow will allow a sea breeze to push inland late morning and into the afternoon, though this should only bring some diurnal clouds with it ahead of the boundary.

By Monday, the front will continue to creep north and make into to central Florida by that same evening. The presence of the boundary, combined with increasing mean moisture and a diurnal sea breeze, will return chances for showers and t'storms, specifically south of I-10 as some drier air aloft should linger into southeast GA.

Temps will rebound for Sunday and into Monday as the aforementioned boundary lifts north, which will result in values slightly above average over the area.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

The boundary stalls over Central Florida Tuesday as a surface ridge builds southward, along most of the southeastern seaboard and into north FL. Although generally split and lacking some agreement, long range guidance continues to suggest a longwave trough/upper low feature moving into much of the eastern US by mid to late next week, and slowly taking its time moving out of this same area. This would keep a front/trough stalled across Florida through at least mid week and possibly into late week pending how this pattern evolves, and therefore keep an active wet pattern across the CWA. This would also keep temps near to slightly below climo with a wetter pattern. Although not looking significant at this time, this type of "ridge and stalled boundary" pattern would likely induce a northeasterly wind-like event offshore as well, especially if any offshore low/trough development occurs as the upper trough approaches the coast. Of course, to be monitored over the coming days...

MARINE
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Elevated seas will persist today with Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
continuing for most waters, but does look like the seas are dropping a bit faster than previously forecast. Thus, the SCA is dropped for the GA nearshore waters, and anticipate the SCA for the northeast FL waters could be dropped slightly sooner than 3 PM as well, and for the offshore waters possibly before the current 8 PM this evening. Otherwise, the north-northwest winds will be decreasing today and become around 5-10 kt tonight through Sunday night. Relatively light winds and lowering seas Sunday into Monday, and then likely gradually increasing again Tue-Wed as high pressure ridge builds north of the area and an inverted trough develops near or east of the area waters mid to late week.

Rip Currents: Elevated surf and rip current channels from the Thursday's through Friday's rough surf will support another high rip current risk day. Risk will slowly diminish on Sunday and Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 85 61 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 87 68 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 87 63 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 86 66 89 72 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 88 63 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 87 64 90 69 / 0 0 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ452- 454.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470-472- 474.

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Palm Valley
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:22 AM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:29 AM EDT     -2.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:49 PM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Palm Valley, ICWW, Florida, Tide feet

St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:49 AM EDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:26 AM EDT     -1.85 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:13 PM EDT     2.21 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     -1.78 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current, knots

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