Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sawgrass, FL

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 251 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

Low pressure continues to push away to the south and east throughout Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Ridging will remain the dominant feature through most of the short term period as the associated surface high moves across the Ohio River Valley Wednesday, eventually weakening and getting rather "pinched off" north and east of the area by Wednesday Night. This will help maintain the cooler than normal pattern in place for both Tuesday and Wednesday, with a wind direction primarily from the north. Looking at mainly mid to upper 50s area wide both Tuesday and Wednesday, except for some lower 60s for areas well south of I-10 (especially Tuesday). Low temps in the low to mid 30s for interior areas north and west of the St. Johns River will also return at least patchy to areas of frost for these locations, and possibly a localized light freeze both Tuesday and Wednesday Night.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 251 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

Some shifts in the trends of guidance over the past 12 hours or so has added uncertainty to the forecast for at least the start of the long term period. Some energy in the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday looks to try to slide eastward towards and across the Florida Peninsula around Thursday and Thursday Night, possibly associated with/ahead of a quick moving upper level shortwave impulse. Guidance differs greatly however with respect to how much these features and available moisture "sync up" as the trough quickly digs southeastward and across the area, with the spread of probability amongst guidance currently anywhere from low chances of rain (about 10 to 20% or less) to likely chances (60% or higher). Given uncertainty, keeping at least slight chance POPs for the Thursday/Thursday Night time frame, which would likely be confined to mainly northeast FL.

Regardless of probability and extent of rainfall, high pressure looks to quickly build into the area for Friday before quickly shifting offshore to the east Friday Night and into the Weekend.
This will start to shift low level flow towards a more mild southerly direction by next weekend, ahead of the next building frontal system which is likely to return chances for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms to the area.

The long term starts slightly below average Thursday, trending near to slightly above average Friday and and especially through the weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

The rain shield will largely move to the southeast this evening, but restrictions in low stratus will prevail across the area through Tonight.

Rapidly improving conditions expected Tuesday morning.

MARINE
Issued at 251 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

A weak boundary will extend across the area from low pressure over the northeastern Gulf this afternoon and evening. As this low moves to the southeast, the boundary will move to the southeast as well.
High pressure will build to the northwest Tonight through Wednesday.
Another boundary will extend across the area from a Gulf low on Thursday, with high pressure then building overhead late in the week.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 45 31 55 31 / 100 0 0 0 SSI 47 39 56 37 / 100 20 0 0 JAX 47 38 59 34 / 100 40 0 0 SGJ 52 43 58 40 / 100 90 0 0 GNV 51 41 60 35 / 100 60 0 0 OCF 57 45 63 36 / 90 80 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ132>136-149.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ151>153-162-163-250.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ452-454-470-472-474.