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FXUS64 KEWX 072025 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 225 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Partly to mostly cloudy skies, southerly flow and mild temperatures continue across South-Central Texas this afternoon. Moisture advection continues through the overnight hours which will bring another night of widespread low stratus and areas of fog, particularly across the western half of the CWA. Patchy dense fog cannot be ruled out with the most likely areas for this near the Rio Grande. With mostly cloudy skies in place, temperatures will remain relatively mild overnight with lows Friday morning in the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds will likely stick around through the morning hours, beginning to scatter in the afternoon. Southerly flow continues tomorrow with the warmest temperatures of the week expected this afternoon. Highs on Friday will be mainly be in the mid to upper 70s, although some locations in the southern portion of the area may reach into the low 80s. Winds will decrease overnight into Saturday morning, with another round of fog and low stratus likely.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Progressive upper level trough advancing through the central CONUS will send our next cold front southward into and across our area on Saturday. However, it will first be a warm and humid start to the day ahead of the front. This likely will coincide with fog and low stratus. The fog may be locally dense at times. As the boundary drops southward out of the Hill Country into the midday hours, this will help eat away the remaining fog and low cloud cover with the arrival of a drier airmass behind the boundary. Areal temperatures to the south/along the front are to warm up quite efficiently with highs topping out within the mid to upper 70s and low 80s while the locations farther north stay closer to the upper 60s and low 70s behind the front. Outside of a low end chance for showers and/or a stray storm across our far eastern and coastal plain counties, this front remains dry for most locations. Breezy northerly winds will filter in behind the front ushering the cold air advection. Strongest winds during Saturday afternoon may filter down the Rio Grande and result in localized elevated to near critical fire weather.

A cooler and much drier airmass continues to filter into the region through the remainder of the weekend with building surface high pressure. Expect breezy to windy conditions during Saturday night into early Sunday with gusts up to the 35 to 40 mph range. The speeds, however, do look to remain shy of wind advisory criteria.
Cold air advection behind the front will allow for temperatures to drop into the 30s and low to mid 40s into Sunday morning but the breezy winds should help to keep temperatures in the HIll Country above freezing. A cool day featuring abundant sunshine is expected on Sunday with afternoon highs in the 50s and low 60s. While the breezy winds do slowly subside later in the afternoon, conditions will be enough to support elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across much of the area. The coldest temperatures trend Sunday night into Monday morning, including the potential for a freeze across many locations. However, with surface high pressure already starting to slide eastward, the winds may not completely decouple and radiational cooling could not be the most optimal in spite of the very dry dew points. Overall, the MOS guidance show much colder temperatures and a more widespread freeze over the region compared to the RAW guidance. I'll remain in the middle of the guidance envelope but with a slight preference towards the colder MOS numbers.This results in a forecast for a freeze over protected and low-lying valley communities where the winds are likely to slack off the most. Elsewhere, overnight lows in the mid 30s should be common.

Temperatures and low-level moisture levels gradually modify from early to midweek ahead of our next upper level and frontal system moving into the Four Corners region with the returning low-level southerly flow. This next system is trending more favorable for better rain chances with its less progressive nature. The latest guidance, including the ensemble means, signals the greatest rain chances and qpf signal focusing in the western half of our CWA through midweek. The front associated with this parent system is likely to be delayed until after this forecast period given its slower evolution.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR ceilings are in place at the I-35 sites with lingering MVFR ceilings at DRT for the start of the period. These MVFR ceilings may last as long as 20Z before VFR conditions return at all sites through the evening hours along with breezy southerly flow. IFR to LIFR ceilings along with areas of fog are expected overnight, with the highest confidence for LIFR conditions at DRT and SAT. These reduced conditions may last into the early afternoon on Friday for many locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 60 76 60 74 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 78 61 75 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 78 62 77 / 10 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 59 77 55 68 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 58 76 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 77 60 72 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 58 76 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 61 77 61 75 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 62 77 65 76 / 0 10 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 62 77 60 76 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 62 78 61 75 / 0 0 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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