Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Giddings, TX

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1208 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

The primary weather of interest for South-Central Texas over the next two days is the low to medium potential for isolated thunderstorms primarily west of I-35. Overall rain chances are 20 to 40 percent. This morning's 12Z sounding from Del Rio showed a warmer capping inversion than the 00Z HRRR members, possibly leaning towards lower storm coverage, but surface temperatures have also skewed higher than modeling. Some of that cap should erode this afternoon as a passing trough encourages slight lifting and cooling of the mid- levels, but locally overachieving surface temperatures will probably be required for storms to break through. That focuses storm potential mainly to late afternoon to evening. There has been a slight uptick in the hi-res guidance showing a storm or two develop over the eastern Hill Country or Rio Grande Plains mainly after 6 PM this evening, with the aid of the evening seabreeze interacting with differential heating near the Balcones Escarpment. Should this occur, these storms would be in a 1500 J/kg MLCAPE environment with modest 20 kt effective bulk shear. This supports a marginal severe risk this evening, and the SPC is highlighting a level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather between the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains. The primary severe hazards are isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds. Weak forcing favors sparse coverage, but slow storm motions and relatively high PWAT could drive up rainfall totals in isolated spots.

Evening storms should weaken tonight as forcing diminishes. However, humid and warm air remain in place as southerly winds continue. A shortwave trough moving across the Four Corners region on Thursday should help induce isolated thunderstorm developing along the dry line mainly over West Texas and over higher Mexican terrain. This development will likely be west of our area, but sufficient potential instability is available for a storm to wander into the Rio Grande Plains or southern Edwards Plateau Thursday evening. Rain chances with that activity are lower than today's... about 20 to 30 percent.

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1208 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Good model agreement continues in projecting strong trough moving across the Intermountain West and Rockies, bifurcating into a shortwave trough ejecting over the Central Plains and a cut-off low dropping southwest towards the Baja California. This sets the stage for an active weather pattern to end the week, continuing into next week.

The faster, ejecting shortwave should send a dryline into western parts of our area on Friday, followed by a cold front Saturday that may stall out over our area throughout the weekend. Both of these features represent opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances accompanying the more well-defined cold front.
Mid- to upper-level flow directed by the lagging cut-off low over Texas will overlap with these features, supplying the moisture supporting these rounds of showers and storms. As the cut-off low sits over the Baja California into next week, additional mid level impulses spun off from the low should continue tracking along the jet stream over Texas, potentially inducing more flare ups in showers and storms along residual stationary frontal surface.
Eventually, the cut-off low should rejoin the jet stream and move east across Texas as an open trough, delivering a final round of rain midweek next week. The long range grand ensemble precipitation chances with this final round peak Tuesday into Tuesday night, in agreement with deterministic and AI solutions. However, these cut- off low setups are notoriously fickle, so expect additional fine tuning of timing of rain chances and the duration of the general period of active weather.

Complexities aside, the general message is that there is a medium to high likelihood of several rounds of showers and thunderstorms for varying portions of South-Central Texas Friday into midweek next week. The highest confidence round in terms of coverage is Saturday into Sunday in tandem with the stalling front. The long range ensemble mean accumulated rainfall is at an inch or greater over virtually the entire CWA through Wednesday, and the associated chance of over 1 inch rainfall through the forecast period has risen some into the 60 to 90 percent range. The long fetch of moisture streaming into the area during this period indicate the possibility of locally heavy rains, and the WPC indicates a level 1 of 4 risk for rainfall capable of localized flash flooding over the weekend.
Moderate instability and shear may allow for a few strong to severe storms, though the heavy rain potential is expected to be the main impact. Above average temperatures should persist through the week into early next week, though weak cold advection behind the front, cloudiness, and rain chances should combine to lower temperatures some over the weekend. Highs Saturday and more likely Sunday could be closer to seasonable norms for early March.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Models in the morning cycles decreased the amount of streamer shower activity while increasing the amount of capping. This will probably result in the afternoon chance of precipitation to be more in the 15- 20 percent range and not quite worthy of a Prob30 group. Rain was also removed from the early morning periods as the light sprinkles and/or light drizzle were generally too light this morning to make an impact, and the same scenario is expected tonight. MVFR cigs are dug in for the 17Z obs, but should start lifting to VFR in the 18Z- 19Z time frame. Winds are proving to be stronger than depicted by MOS guidances, but this should not change the convective picture.
MVFR cigs should return to most areas around 05Z and a few hours later at DRT. A few brief pockets of IFR CIGs could develop, with the MOS guidances suggesting DRT and high terrain areas to have the better chances.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 68 84 67 83 / 20 30 20 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 85 66 85 / 20 30 20 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 84 66 83 / 20 30 20 60 Burnet Muni Airport 65 82 66 80 / 30 20 20 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 87 66 89 / 30 30 30 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 84 65 83 / 30 30 20 70 Hondo Muni Airport 65 87 64 84 / 30 20 30 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 66 86 66 85 / 20 30 20 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 84 67 86 / 10 10 20 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 68 85 67 83 / 30 30 30 70 Stinson Muni Airport 68 87 68 84 / 20 20 30 60

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.