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FXUS64 KEWX 281737 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1137 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Surface high pressure continues to slide into South Central Texas overnight, which should result in cold and dry conditions to start the day on Tuesday. Expect the coldest morning of the week Tuesday as temperatures start in the upper 30s to mid 40s. If it were not for some mid to upper level cloud cover insulating things like a nice warm blanket, we'd likely be talking about lower to middle 30s for most of the region. Weak shortwave ridging will slide through the region today, allowing for more sun than clouds today, along with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunshine is unlikely to last long as our next storm system approaches in the form of a deepening trough over the Four Corners on Wednesday. This system will lead to increasing cloud cover through the day on Wednesday, along with cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances by late evening. Increasing pacific moisture from the subtropical jet and east-southeasterly surface flow will aid in showers and storms developing late Wednesday. Please see the long term discussion for further details.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

An upper level shortwave is forecast to dig through southern Arizona and New Mexico Wednesday night into Thursday morning then open across northwest Texas and into Oklahoma Thursday afternoon and evening. Ahead of this, isentropic ascent will strengthen considerably across South Central Texas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. As the isentropic ascent increases and column quickly moistens expect scattered to numerous showers to develop across central and eastern areas Wednesday night, along with areas of fog and drizzle. Height falls ahead of the shortwave trough will result in steepening H7-H5 lapse rates through the night and into Thursday morning, and we do expected isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms to develop overnight across central and eastern areas.

Things become more interesting Thursday morning through early afternoon across eastern areas of the CWA, and farther east into Southeast Texas, where a plume of richer low level theta-e advection and MLCAPE values of around 1000-1500 J/kg develop. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a high shear environment in this area, with effective SRH values on the order of 300-400 m2/s2 across far eastern areas of the CWA. As mentioned yesterday, given this and the large scale forcing peaking at this time, we will need to watch for the potential for a few rotating storms producing brief tornadoes.
SPC's Day 3 Outlook has introduced a Level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Thursday east of I-35 and I-37, with the highest risk across along and east of the U.S. 77 corridor. Again, the main threat will be a few, brief tornadoes Thursday morning into the early afternoon.

A pre-frontal trough is forecast to move west to east across the region Thursday afternoon, with precipitation chances gradually shifting east of the U.S. 77 corridor and out of the CWA Thursday evening. A weak cold front is forecast to move through the region late Thursday night into Friday morning, with drier and slightly cooler conditions behind it Friday and Saturday. Mild conditions are forecast Sunday, with a weak reinforcing surge of high pressure Sunday night bringing slightly cooler conditions on Monday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR ceilings are quickly dissipating this morning and mostly sunny skies will prevail through the afternoon. All terminals will be VFR through the entire period. Light easterly winds will turn to the southeast this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 61 43 61 56 / 0 0 10 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 42 62 57 / 0 0 10 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 44 62 57 / 0 0 10 70 Burnet Muni Airport 60 42 60 54 / 0 0 10 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 63 47 59 53 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 60 42 61 56 / 0 0 10 60 Hondo Muni Airport 61 45 59 53 / 0 0 20 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 61 43 62 56 / 0 0 10 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 60 43 64 59 / 0 0 0 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 61 46 60 56 / 0 0 20 60 Stinson Muni Airport 62 46 61 58 / 0 0 20 50

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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