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FXUS64 KEWX 030815 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 215 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

The latest GOES 16 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows what we've been working with the last several days: mid-level cloud cover. That will continue today despite the passage of a cold front early this morning bringing slightly drier and cooler air into the picture.
Temperatures will likely fall into the upper 30s for some of the usual cooler spots over the Hill Country and lower to middle 40s for the remainder of the region Sunday morning. Despite the cool start to Sunday, with westerly downsloping winds behind the front, it will likely warm rather quickly due to compressional effects. With that being said, we should see widespread mid 70s with perhaps a few spots getting into the upper 70s by mid to late afternoon.

Yet another cold front is expected to swing through on Monday, this time, a bit stronger, so afternoon highs will be a bit cooler than Sunday, generally in the mid to upper 60s north and lower to middle 70s south. Overall, the short term forecast period looks quiet, with cool, crisp mornings and mild, breezy afternoons.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 214 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

A cold night is expected Monday night behind the weak front in the short-term period. With mostly clear skies and light winds, lows by Tuesday morning will bottom out in the lower to middle 40s across South-Central Texas. Weak northerly flow will continue through Wednesday morning and temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons will make it into the upper 60s to lower 70s for highs. Southerly flow will then make a return to the region Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of the next system. Wind speeds Thursday should be in the 15 to 20 mph range and with this warm-air advection expect highs Thursday to warm into the middle 70s for portions of the area with slightly higher values on Friday with increased low-level cloud cover. A strong trough axis will move through the Central Plains by Saturday and this will send a cold front into the region sometime Saturday. The operational runs of both the GFS and ECMWF now support a mostly dry passage with this cold front and will undercut NBM PoPs Saturday and Sunday behind the front. This is also now mostly supported with their ensemble systems as well. Lows behind the front will be back in the 40s with highs Sunday in the 60s. It looks like we should still be waiting for the first widespread freeze of the winter season.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

VFR conditions will continue through the period with only some upper level cloud cover streaming overhead. Winds are generally light and variable to begin the period and will remain that way through 03/1800Z before becoming southwesterly and increasing to around 10 kts. Beyond 04/0600Z, winds will become northerly/northwesterly. No significant weather is forecast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 74 47 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 41 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 45 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 43 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 44 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 43 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 43 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 44 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 46 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 47 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 46 72 47 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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