Sunrise 6:52 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 8:04 PM   Moonset 6:07 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 242341 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 641 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Moist low-level flow off the Gulf of Mexico will continue to strengthen through the period as surface low deepens across the mains in response to an ejecting upper level disturbance. The short term period should be largely uneventful from a weather standpoint as much of the forcing (both at the surface and aloft) associated with this low will be to the north of our area. Nevertheless, indications are isentropic lift tomorrow morning could be strong enough to help produce patches of drizzle across much of south-central Texas, and some 10-15% PoPs have been added into the forecast to account for this. Some patchy fog will be possible as well, though the elevated wind speeds should largely prevent this. Otherwise, the tail end of convection developing along a dryline across N/W Texas tomorrow afternoon/evening could reach northern portions of the CWA Thursday night into Friday morning, so there are low PoPs in the forecast for that timeframe to account for that potential. Any storm that is able to make it into the CWA will have the potential to be strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary threats. Otherwise, warm, muggy, and mostly cloudy conditions will continue through the period, though a steady southeast breeze may make it feel a bit more comfortable than it would without it.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

At the start of the long term period, a large trough will be centered over the Intermountain West, with a series of shortwave disturbances swinging through South Central Texas within the large scale southwesterly flow. A potent 500mb vort max will become negatively tilted over northern Kansas/southern Nebraska, which will in turn allow a dryline to sharpen over our CWA This dryline will continue to wobble back and forth over the Rio Grande Plains and Edward Plateau Friday, becoming the primary focus for showers and isolated strong to severe storms Friday morning through the early afternoon.
At this time, the focus for severe weather looks to be farther north into the Fort Worth CWA, closer to the upper level forcing, however, we may see some large hail and damaging wind during the day Friday.

Saturday will be a very warm to even hot day, especially over the Rio Grande Plains, where afternoon highs will be pushing the century mark at Del Rio, Eagle Pass, and Faith Ranch. As southerly flow increases out ahead of a strengthening trough over the Four Corners, the dryline will sharpen up once more, leading to increased chances for showers and storms with isolated strong to severe storms developing late Saturday night over the Hill Country and sliding south and eastward through Sunday morning. As of this writing, if the trough manages to slow down a bit, the severe threat would certainly increase as storms would form during peak heating Sunday afternoon.
However, for now, the threat appears to be weighted more towards heavy rainfall. Integrated Vapor Transport and PWATs are fairly impressive, but not particularly strong for late April/early May.
Storms may try to redevelop Sunday afternoon, but it will be highly dependent on the timing of morning convection and whether we can destabilize once again by the afternoon hours.

Beyond Sunday, the pattern remains active, but messy to say the least. Global models are in agreement on active weather with continued rain chances, but as far as pinpointing particular locations, there is little certainty through the remainder of the long term.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Deep onshore flow should gusty winds in the evening with a slight lowering of winds to allow MVFR cigs to develop again by late evening over I-35. DRT should also see this lowering but by about 3 hours later. All sites will have a chance to see some patchy drizzle or sprinkles with the help of an increasing nocturnal LLJ. Not confident on this forecast cycle or whether or not the surface winds decouple enough to get LLWS. After the period of drizzle chances and IFR cigs, more gusty winds in the late morning hours will lift skies back to MVFR and eventually VFR in the mid afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 69 84 71 84 / 20 20 10 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 83 70 83 / 20 20 10 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 86 71 86 / 20 20 10 40 Burnet Muni Airport 68 82 69 82 / 20 20 20 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 92 74 97 / 10 10 20 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 83 69 82 / 20 20 10 60 Hondo Muni Airport 69 89 69 89 / 10 10 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 85 69 84 / 20 20 10 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 83 72 83 / 20 20 0 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 86 70 85 / 20 20 10 40 Stinson Muni Airport 71 87 72 87 / 20 20 10 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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