Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orange Beach, AL

FXUS64 KMOB 281745 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Now through Tuesday night...

Upper level shortwave energy moving through a mean upper trough over the Plains tilts clockwise an upper ridge over the eastern Conus. Over the Southeast, the upper ridge remains strong into mid week. Surface high pressure builds over the Carolina coast through Monday, with a ridge building southwest over the Southeast. The combination of subsidence and tilting of the upper ridge will move dry air in the mid and upper levels over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western portions of the Southeast Monday night on, even as onshore flow in the lower levels keeps moisture levels in the lower levels high (with precipitable h20 values dropping from around 1.5" to around 1" over western portions of the forecast area). CAMS are hinting at another round of afternoon convection initiated by a seabreeze over most all coastal counties Monday afternoon, though some guidance is limiting the convection to areas east of the Tombigbee. With afternoon MLCapes rising to 1500-2500 J/kg and DCapes in the 700-900J/kg range, a few strong to marginally severe pulse storms are possible in the late afternoon/early evening. The drying out of the airmass over the western third of the forecast area will shift any convection further east, to areas along the eastern border for Tuesday.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures well above seasonal norms through the Near Term. High temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 well inland from the coast, low to mid 80s closer to the coast are expected Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected north of I-10, mid to upper 60s south to the coast are expected Monday and Tuesday nights.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected through Tuesday. /16

Wednesday through Sunday...

The upper ridge will move eastward Wednesday into Thursday as an upper level shortwave ejects northeast across the plains. A stronger trough moving across the midwestern states will send a cold front southward toward the coast by Friday night. The approaching front combined with the weakening upper ridge will bring increased rain chances for the end of the week into Saturday. Drier conditions return on Sunday. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. /13
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