Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Beach, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 4:51PM Saturday December 14, 2019 9:38 PM CST (03:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 9:53AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- 638 Pm Cst Sat Dec 14 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am cst Sunday...
Tonight..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Patchy dense fog near shore. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Sunday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots becoming north. Seas 4 to 7 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Wednesday..North winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 638 Pm Cst Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis..Light west to southwest winds will become more southerly overnight tonight into Sunday. Patchy dense fog could be possible over portions of the marine area. A cold front approaching the region will bring increasing onshore flow and building seas Monday into Monday night, before moving south of area waters Tuesday morning. Strong to very strong offshore flow will follow the front's passage when a small craft advisory will likely be needed beginning Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Beach, AL
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location: 30.22, -87.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 150032 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 632 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

DISCUSSION. Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE. Went ahead and issued a Marine Dense Fog Advisory for Mobile Bay, MS Sound and the adjacent near shore Gulf waters. So far the dense fog has be rather patchy and visibilities somewhat variable, but will likely become more widespread and persistent overnight. Currently the fog seems to be focused around the Dauphin Island area. MWW already sent, new CWF product coming soon. /12

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 555 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/

DISCUSSION . Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION . 00Z issuance . MVFR conditions this evening will become IFR overnight as patchy dense fog develops. VFR conditions return by late Sunday morning. /13

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 359 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/ . Surface high pressure moves north over the Florida Peninsula tonight into Sunday, bringing a more southerly flow to the forecast area. A warm front is expected to move north across the region Sunday. For tonight, the return of a more southerly flow north of the approaching warm front will increase the expanse of stratus that has stubbornly remained over areas along and west of the Tombigbee River to the rest of the forecast area. As temperatures cool tonight, fog development is likely, though guidance is inconsistent on where and how dense the fog will be north of the approaching warm front. Have went with general fog development tonight, but have leaned towards the SREF position of lower visibilities north of the coast and west of I-65, with the SREF having a better placement of lower visibilities the last few days. Have worded patchy dense at this point, to highlight the possibility, but allow for some flexibility in handling the development tonight. As the stratus and fog increase in coverage, radiational cooling will become increasing cut off, with northeastern portions of the forecast area seeing the most cooling. Have leaned on the warm side of guidance, especially western portions of the forecast area with the forecast starting off with a persistent stratus deck these areas. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s southwestern portions of the forecast area and along the coast to mid 40s northeastern-most portions.

Sunday, the stratus desk will be slow to mix out north of the approaching warm front. The warm front is expected to move north across the forecast area late morning into the afternoon. With the limited daytime heating, have leaned on the cooler side of guidance, especially northern portions of the forecast area. Another wild card is the possibility of sea fog development along the coast over and west of Mobile bay due to the warmer flow following the front's passage over cooler near coastal waters. Guidance is not indicating at this point, but will continue to monitor. High temperatures Sunday are expected to range from around 70 closer to the coast to low 60s north of Highway 84. /16

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/ . The risk of strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and Monday night continues to increase with each model run. The zonal flow aloft on Sunday transitions to deep southwest flow as a strong upper level trough exiting the Rocky Mountains moves over the Great Plains, with precipitable water values increasing to between 1.5 to 1.7 inches by late Monday evening. This upper trough will initiate a surface low pressure area across the ARKLATEX region by Monday morning that will lift northeast, reaching West Virginia by midnight. In addition, an associated strong cold front approaching the region from the northwest will pass through the forecast area late Monday night into Tuesday. The region will reside well within the warm sector on Monday, with high temperatures ranging from 75 to 80 degrees, along with surface dewpoints ranging from 63 to 68 degrees.

Precipitation will increase Monday afternoon to 60 to 80 percent over southeast Mississippi and inland southwest Alabama, with a 20 to 50 percent chance further east. An 80 to 90 percent chance is forecast over the entire area Monday night. The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable with MLCAPES ranging from 1500 to 2500 J/KG. SBCAPES will be even higher, possibly reaching as high as 3500 J/KG Monday evening according to the NAM12. Deep layer effective shear on the order of 55 to 65 knots is currently forecast ahead of and along the squall line moving in from the west. Strong low and mid level shear will increase on Monday as well, with 0-3km SR Helicity values ranging from 200-350 m2/s2. Strong mid/upper ascent will also be present as we reside under the right entrance region of a 130 knot 300mb jet max. This type of environment should support all severe weather hazards, including damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and localized small hail.

The cold front moves through late Monday night into Tuesday morning, with the precipitation tapering off through the day Tuesday. Dry conditions area-wide will follow Tuesday night. Dramatic change in temperatures occurs on Tuesday in the wake of the cold front, with highs in the 50s northwest of I-65, and low to mid 60s to the southeast. Lows Tuesday night will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s. /22

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/ . The Cold and dry weather will persist Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds east across the Deep South and into the Southeast. Highs each afternoon stay in the 50s and lows each night range from upper 20s inland to low 30s closer to the coast. Freezing temperatures will be possible all the way down to the coast Wednesday night. A gradual warming trend begins Thursday as the surface high builds into the Southeast and western Atlantic and local flow shifts to easterly and then southeasterly. Moisture begins to return heading into Friday as another system approaches from the west, with rain chances increasing as a result. Highs Thursday and Friday reach the upper 50s to low 60s and lows range from upper 30s to low 40s. /22

MARINE . Surface high pressure will move north over the Florida tonight into Sunday, bringing a light, more steady southerly flow to area waters. A strong cold front will move east towards the regions Sunday night through Monday, bringing an increase in the onshore flow to more moderate Monday, then moderate to strong Monday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. The cold front will cross area coastal waters late Monday night through Tuesday morning, bringing a strong to very strong offshore flow. Wind gusts to gale force is likely Tuesday through Tuesday night over unprotected coastal waters and southern Mobile Bay. Wednesday night through Thursday, winds will transition to easterly and ease over protected waters as surface high pressure moves towards and begins to move east over the Southeast. Winds over unprotected waters will transition to a more moderate easterly through the same period. /16

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST Sunday through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST Sunday through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS . None. GM . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630>632-650.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 4 mi69 min 54°F 1014.9 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 11 mi39 min Calm G 1.9 61°F 69°F1014.8 hPa (+0.7)57°F
WBYA1 20 mi51 min 62°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 20 mi114 min 53°F 1014 hPa53°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 22 mi51 min NW 1 G 1.9 56°F 60°F1014.9 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi51 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 57°F 1014.4 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 27 mi39 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 56°F 1014.3 hPa (+0.7)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 31 mi69 min SSE 1.9 55°F 1014.2 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 35 mi69 min S 1.9 20°F 1014.9 hPa
MBPA1 35 mi51 min 54°F 54°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 37 mi69 min Calm 54°F 1014.9 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 40 mi57 min S 1 G 1.9 62°F 60°F1014.9 hPa
PTOA1 40 mi51 min 55°F 54°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 42 mi57 min 56°F 58°F1014.7 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 47 mi114 min S 5.1 55°F 1015 hPa55°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL8 mi64 minN 32.50 miFog/Mist47°F46°F99%1014.9 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi4.7 hrsWSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F55°F87%1013.3 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi44 minN 00.15 miFog48°F48°F100%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJKA

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmN5NW8NW9NW8NW4NW10N5N3CalmW3W7SW5SW4SW4W8W9W4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE5NE5NE6NE5NE6E9NE6NE5E6NE4E5E6NE4E7E6NE4NE8N4NW4N8N8N6NE3N4
2 days ago------NE5NE4----N3--NE7NE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:39 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:53 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:41 AM CST     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:51 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:26 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.81.61.30.90.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.50.811.21.41.61.81.9

Tide / Current Tables for Nix Point, Perdido Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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