Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pass Christian, MS
November 3, 2024 6:48 AM CST (12:48 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 5:08 PM Moonrise 9:15 AM Moonset 7:23 PM |
GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 243 Am Cst Sun Nov 3 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect from 6 am cst this morning through this evening - .
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 15 to 20 knots late. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 243 Am Cst Sun Nov 3 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
persistent east to southeast winds will strengthen in response to a tightening pressure gradient later this weekend and will generally rise into the small craft advisory range tonight. Seas will also build in response, with 2 to 4 feet in the sounds and lakes and 5 to 8 feet in seas the open gulf waters. Conditions should begin to improve Monday night into Tuesday. A low pressure system moving through the southern gulf could produce high seas in the open gulf waters later this week.
persistent east to southeast winds will strengthen in response to a tightening pressure gradient later this weekend and will generally rise into the small craft advisory range tonight. Seas will also build in response, with 2 to 4 feet in the sounds and lakes and 5 to 8 feet in seas the open gulf waters. Conditions should begin to improve Monday night into Tuesday. A low pressure system moving through the southern gulf could produce high seas in the open gulf waters later this week.
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
Cat Island, Mississippi, Tide feet
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Ship Island, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi, Tide feet
Area Discussion for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 031125 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 525 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 244 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
A broad area of low stratus and some fog has formed beneath an inversion generally north of I-12 in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi this morning. This low stratus and fog will linger through daybreak before quickly mixing out into a scattered cumulus field by mid-morning. Outside of this fog threat, the only other concern through tomorrow night is the high likelihood of minor coastal flooding occurring on east and southeast facing shores during high tide both tonight and again tomorrow night due to a persistent onshore flow of 15 to 20 mph. This quiet period of weather is being driven by a increased mid and upper level ridging which in turn has led to a drying in the mid-levels and a decrease in overall instability. This ridging is also allowing for the continuation of near record temperatures with readings running a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal both today and tomorrow.
Conditions will begin to change slightly on Tuesday as a shortwave trough ejecting out of the Southern Plains begins to shear out and weaken as it lifts into the Midwest and merges with a northern stream trough. In the low levels, a weakening front will slide into western Louisiana and eventually stall over the western portion of the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon. A slight increase in mid-level moisture transport associated with the front will allow precipitable water values to rise to between 1.5 and 1.75 inches, and overall instability will increase slightly as temperatures mid-level lapse rates approach 6.0C/km over northern and western portions of the forecast area. The end result will be the development of scattered showers and possibly an isolated weak thunderstorm along the dissipating frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday night, the loss of daytime heating will cause most of the shower activity to dissipate with largely dry conditions in the forecast. Temperatures will continue to run well above average with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
Model guidance has come into better agreement that the region will remain under the influence of a strong and deep ridge axis to close out the week. This will keep conditions warmer than average with temperatures averaging a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the period. Additionally, the deep layer subsidence will keep conditions very stable and dry as the mid-levels both turn warmer and drier from Wednesday through Saturday. A very strong mid-level capping inversion will be in place through the period, and this will greatly limit rain chances each day. At most, a few low topped showers may develop during peak heating hours each day, and this is reflected by token 20 percent PoPs in the forecast each day.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
A broad area of low stratus has formed beneath an elevated inversion this morning for terminals north of I-12 in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. This low stratus is producing IFR conditions at MCB and BTR where ceilings of around 500 feet will persist through 15z before fully mixing out with the weakening of the inversion. At ASD, MVFR ceilings around 1500 feet have been in place for several hours. These slightly higher ceilings are due to stronger boundary layer winds of closer to 15 knots along and south of I-12. HDC has been bouncing between MVFR and VFR due to these similar conditions. All of the terminals will see VFR conditions take hold after 15z, and these VFR conditons will persist through the evening hours. Winds will also turn gusty at 15 to 20 knots from the east this afternoon. Later tonight, another weak inversion will form over BTR, HDC, and MCB. Ceilings are forecast to fall to around 1000 feet, but periods of IFR conditions can be expected generally after 08z at these terminals.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 244 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
Outside of HDC, BTR, and MCB, continued to slightly dial back the low VIS overnight as the low level flow looks to stay just high enough to keep the lowest levels mixed. That said, BTR, HDC, and especially MCB may have just enough drop in winds overnight for some shallow fog to develop, although most of the guidance has been backing off on the potential. Otherwise, looks like VFR will prevail otherwise. Southeasterly surface flow will continue and likely increase during the daylight hours on Sunday with some terminals seeing gusts up to 20 to 25 knots at times before becoming less gusty around or shortly after sunset. (Frye)
MARINE
Issued at 244 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
A tightening pressure gradient across the northern Gulf waters today and tomorrow will produce winds in excess of 20 knots and seas of over 6 feet across the open Gulf waters and the sounds starting tonight and continuing into tomorrow. This tight pressure gradient is being driven be a strengthening ridge to the north and northeast and a broad area of low pressure across the southern Gulf. The ridge to the north is projected to weaken on Tuesday, and this will allow winds to fall below 15 knots. These lighter winds are expected to persist through the end of the week as high pressure becomes more centered over the area. However, there is the potential that a weakening tropical cyclone could be moving through the southeast Gulf later this week. If this occurs, a potent swell train will emanate from the system to produce hazardous seas of 8 to 12 feet in the open Gulf waters on Thursday and Friday. There is a great deal of uncertainty in the seas forecast beyond Wednesday, and we encourage mariners to follow the forecast for any updates over the next few days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 84 68 83 66 / 0 10 10 10 BTR 83 72 85 70 / 10 10 10 20 ASD 83 70 82 69 / 0 10 10 10 MSY 83 74 83 73 / 0 10 10 10 GPT 81 72 80 71 / 0 10 10 10 PQL 82 71 81 69 / 10 10 10 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for LAZ058-060- 066>070-076>078-080-082-084-086>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ570.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for MSZ086>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-572-575-577.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 525 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 244 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
A broad area of low stratus and some fog has formed beneath an inversion generally north of I-12 in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi this morning. This low stratus and fog will linger through daybreak before quickly mixing out into a scattered cumulus field by mid-morning. Outside of this fog threat, the only other concern through tomorrow night is the high likelihood of minor coastal flooding occurring on east and southeast facing shores during high tide both tonight and again tomorrow night due to a persistent onshore flow of 15 to 20 mph. This quiet period of weather is being driven by a increased mid and upper level ridging which in turn has led to a drying in the mid-levels and a decrease in overall instability. This ridging is also allowing for the continuation of near record temperatures with readings running a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal both today and tomorrow.
Conditions will begin to change slightly on Tuesday as a shortwave trough ejecting out of the Southern Plains begins to shear out and weaken as it lifts into the Midwest and merges with a northern stream trough. In the low levels, a weakening front will slide into western Louisiana and eventually stall over the western portion of the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon. A slight increase in mid-level moisture transport associated with the front will allow precipitable water values to rise to between 1.5 and 1.75 inches, and overall instability will increase slightly as temperatures mid-level lapse rates approach 6.0C/km over northern and western portions of the forecast area. The end result will be the development of scattered showers and possibly an isolated weak thunderstorm along the dissipating frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday night, the loss of daytime heating will cause most of the shower activity to dissipate with largely dry conditions in the forecast. Temperatures will continue to run well above average with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
Model guidance has come into better agreement that the region will remain under the influence of a strong and deep ridge axis to close out the week. This will keep conditions warmer than average with temperatures averaging a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the period. Additionally, the deep layer subsidence will keep conditions very stable and dry as the mid-levels both turn warmer and drier from Wednesday through Saturday. A very strong mid-level capping inversion will be in place through the period, and this will greatly limit rain chances each day. At most, a few low topped showers may develop during peak heating hours each day, and this is reflected by token 20 percent PoPs in the forecast each day.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
A broad area of low stratus has formed beneath an elevated inversion this morning for terminals north of I-12 in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. This low stratus is producing IFR conditions at MCB and BTR where ceilings of around 500 feet will persist through 15z before fully mixing out with the weakening of the inversion. At ASD, MVFR ceilings around 1500 feet have been in place for several hours. These slightly higher ceilings are due to stronger boundary layer winds of closer to 15 knots along and south of I-12. HDC has been bouncing between MVFR and VFR due to these similar conditions. All of the terminals will see VFR conditions take hold after 15z, and these VFR conditons will persist through the evening hours. Winds will also turn gusty at 15 to 20 knots from the east this afternoon. Later tonight, another weak inversion will form over BTR, HDC, and MCB. Ceilings are forecast to fall to around 1000 feet, but periods of IFR conditions can be expected generally after 08z at these terminals.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 244 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
Outside of HDC, BTR, and MCB, continued to slightly dial back the low VIS overnight as the low level flow looks to stay just high enough to keep the lowest levels mixed. That said, BTR, HDC, and especially MCB may have just enough drop in winds overnight for some shallow fog to develop, although most of the guidance has been backing off on the potential. Otherwise, looks like VFR will prevail otherwise. Southeasterly surface flow will continue and likely increase during the daylight hours on Sunday with some terminals seeing gusts up to 20 to 25 knots at times before becoming less gusty around or shortly after sunset. (Frye)
MARINE
Issued at 244 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
A tightening pressure gradient across the northern Gulf waters today and tomorrow will produce winds in excess of 20 knots and seas of over 6 feet across the open Gulf waters and the sounds starting tonight and continuing into tomorrow. This tight pressure gradient is being driven be a strengthening ridge to the north and northeast and a broad area of low pressure across the southern Gulf. The ridge to the north is projected to weaken on Tuesday, and this will allow winds to fall below 15 knots. These lighter winds are expected to persist through the end of the week as high pressure becomes more centered over the area. However, there is the potential that a weakening tropical cyclone could be moving through the southeast Gulf later this week. If this occurs, a potent swell train will emanate from the system to produce hazardous seas of 8 to 12 feet in the open Gulf waters on Thursday and Friday. There is a great deal of uncertainty in the seas forecast beyond Wednesday, and we encourage mariners to follow the forecast for any updates over the next few days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 84 68 83 66 / 0 10 10 10 BTR 83 72 85 70 / 10 10 10 20 ASD 83 70 82 69 / 0 10 10 10 MSY 83 74 83 73 / 0 10 10 10 GPT 81 72 80 71 / 0 10 10 10 PQL 82 71 81 69 / 10 10 10 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for LAZ058-060- 066>070-076>078-080-082-084-086>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ570.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for MSZ086>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-572-575-577.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS | 14 mi | 48 min | ESE 11G | 77°F | 76°F | 30.00 | ||
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS | 31 mi | 48 min | 76°F | |||||
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS | 32 mi | 48 min | E 9.9G | 74°F | 30.04 | |||
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS | 38 mi | 63 min | ENE 8 | 73°F | 30.06 | 71°F | ||
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA | 38 mi | 48 min | ESE 8G | 75°F | 69°F | 30.02 |
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