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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 355 Pm Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots late this evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers until early morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..North winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 355 Pm Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
a return to a moderate onshore flow will continue to increase thru tonight and into the day on Friday. Gales are expected for gulf waters west of the ms delta. Moderate onshore flow will persist into the weekend as a series of low pressure systems pass north of the waters. Headlines are already in place.

FXUS64 KLIX 302248 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 448 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 445 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

It has been a dreary cool day with mainly some light sprinkles otherwise severe virga and a breeze across the area. The issue though is
WHAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS
and to be very blunt there are multiple scenarios that could however things may be finally setting up for at least one specific scenario tonight which could mean a few strong to severe storms initially transitioning into a flash flood risk.

Tonight the biggest question earlier was would convection would develop over the central TX coast and then become anchored to the LA coast or even farther south into the Gulf. This appears to be the least likely scenario now as convection has struggled to develop in the Gulf all day and has been along the upper TX coast and inland with moderate showers over southwest LA all afternoon. This appears to be mainly associated a slightly subtle wind maxima/impulse which is very difficult to see on WV but does appear to be there which has been advertised by most of the models through the week, its just quite a bit more subtle than what was advertised and also probably why we have not seen more substantial convection in southeast TX and moving into southwest LA. Then main disturbance is still back to the west and just now moving into the southern Plains but is expected to push northeast through the night and this will likely be a big reason why storms will struggle to move into the area. Shield of light rain is over southwest and south-central LA and this will try to move into southeast LA during the evening and this light rain and virga will keep things on the cooler side of the region meaning any convection we see overnight is likely going to be elevated most of the time. especially for locations north of the LA coast. Right along the SELa coast and maybe up to Thibodaux east to just south of the NO metro. North of that line it is going to be very difficult to get winds brought down to the sfc from storms and very difficult to get any tornadoes to develop. So what do we expect to happen tonight.

Deeper convection has been struggling to develop across southeast TX and if it does develop it is going to have to do so in the next 3-4 hours and if it doesn't then looks for a lot of nothing for our area overnight tonight. That convection should be associated with a developing LL jet which is suppose to translate from the northeastern Gulf early this evening into central MS. The best LL convergence will be on that eastern side and at the nose which should move through the northwestern 3rd of the CWA but shortly after 6z it will be lifting away and thus we start to quickly lose the better LL convergence. At the same time the main disturbance will be moving to the northeast quickly with most of its support remaining well north of the area. This notoriously leads to convection waning and sometime rather quickly. This combined with the LL jet leaving would start to cause the line of storms to weaken and again take on that more WSW to ENE orientation and that is expected but for this to happen we will actually need some robust convection to develop in the next few hours to get a line with enough push to get into the area and recently it is looking more and more likely that whatever line is left will struggle to push much more than halfway through the CWA by 12z if it even gets that far now. This is leading to a concern that we may not have that much activity overnight as once expected but then the boundary is then stalled over the area and that sets the stage for activity tomorrow or more so tomorrow night as the next impulse comes through.

If the line can develop tonight it will probably begin to push into the far northwest portions of the CWA around midnight or shortly after and then start to slow down some as it moves east and begins to pivot to that WSW to ENE line. As long as convection is still occuring the risk flash flooding is there and there could be a narrow area of rather heavy rain approaching 3 to 5 inches however things are looking less likely for that to happen tonight now.

It is likely that we will have a lull tomorrow even if we don't much tonight it will still be somewhat quiet through early afternoon. We then wait for the next impulse as we remain under the southwest flow and this could move though overnight but convection may start as early as mid to late afternoon as we will probably heat up and that will help storms develop. Once we get better support we could be in for a little more active night with strong to severe storms not out of the question but the threat of locally heavy rain possible again.
Southwest flow remains over the region and we could see rain and a few thunderstorms persist through much of Saturday and into the evening hours. /CAB/



LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 445 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Currently terminals remain in VFR status but this will begin to change late this afternoon or this evening. Cigs will slowly fall through the day and MVFR cigs should impact all terminals between 3 and 7z and then likely to continue to do so through the remainder of the TAF package. Virga or sprinkles have been moving through the area this morning and we should see a break till after 00z and then we may begin to finally see some -SHRA or even TSRA but that will likely be closer to 3z and through the remainder of the night. Biggest unknown is where convection could line up as some terminals could have minimal impacts with that mainly being low cigs and LLWS while other terminals could see IFR cigs, vsbys, and LLWS for 6 to 12 hours. Yes there is a possibility that storms line up in a way that multiple terminals could see significant impacts for hours or so minimal impacts. This forecast is going to likely be about a 3-6 hour forecast accuracy with a lot of watching the radar. /CAB/

MARINE
Issued at 445 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Onshore flow will continue to increase causing hazardous marine conditions for all coastal waters. The western Gulf waters will see some wind gusts up to gale force at times overnight and a Gale Warning remain in place. Downgraded to a SCY over the tidal lakes as winds should remain just below Gale but can't rule out one or two gusts near 40 kt. Eventually, a frontal boundary will stall over the region, which should allow the surface pressure gradient to relax allowing for winds and seas to subside a bit through the second half of the upcoming weekend. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 56 75 63 73 / 90 50 90 80 BTR 60 80 66 77 / 90 50 90 70 ASD 57 78 63 75 / 70 70 90 80 MSY 61 78 66 74 / 80 70 80 80 GPT 58 74 63 72 / 60 90 90 90 PQL 56 78 63 76 / 50 90 90 90

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-555-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ550-552- 570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ550-552- 570-572.

Gale Warning until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ550-552-570-572.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-555-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ552-570- 572.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ552-570- 572.

Gale Warning until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ552-570-572.

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