SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

The frontal boundary that has been stalled, will become more of a warm front extending across north central NE FL Thursday morning from remains of Francine. As Francine remnants lifts well to northwest of the area during the Thursday into Thursday night, this boundary will slowly lift north to near the FL/GA line. The boundary will then remain stalled, with high pressure to the northeast. An area of low pressure will develop just to the east of the area over the Atlantic waters along this boundary.

Above normal precipitation chances will continue this period, especially during the day, due to diurnal heating contribution.

Highs will trend below normal Thursday, then near normal Friday.
Lows will be above normal both Thursday night and Friday night.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

The frontal boundary will continue to linger over northern FL through the weekend as low continues to the east northeast. This pattern will continue the higher than normal precipitation chances through at least the weekend.

There is more uncertainty heading into the first half of next week, as the models are trending toward further developing the low into what could become a tropical system, and moving it into the Carolinas. At this point will trend toward scattered precipitation.
If the low does become tropical, and move inland far enough to the north, drier air may wrap in behind it across the local area.

Temperatures will trend near to a little above normal this period.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Waves of heavy downpours are expected to move onshore again later this morning and spread north and west into all TAF sites from midday to the afternoon hours. A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions will prevail through sunrise with IFR restrictions after 08Z at times at GNV and VQQ with showers streaming onshore at times at SGJ.
Showers will then begin at SGJ by 13Z and increase in coverage at the coast and work north towards the duval and SSI terminals through midday and inland towards GNV as well. Have Prob30 groups for heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms 15-20Z at the northeast florida sites and later at SSI 19-23Z being further north with restrictions to IFR ceilings/MVFR visibilities and some gusty winds to 20 knots inland and up to 30 knots along the coast. Breezy winds around 15 knots gusting to 20 knots at SGJ and SSI and less around 10 knots away from the coast.

Shower activity and thunderstorms decrease in coverage from south to north after 21Z with VCSH and then dry out wind down after 00-03Z with light easterly winds 5-8 knots inland and around 10 knots coast. MVFR ceilings persist at SSI all day and tonight with VFR ceilings elsewhere after 00Z.

MARINE
Issued at 214 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

A frontal boundary will be over area through the weekend, with high pressure to the northeast. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over area waters on the front through the weekend, which may strengthen as it moves to the north of area.

Rip Currents: High Risk through Thursday night

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 72 84 70 / 80 30 80 40 SSI 82 76 84 74 / 60 40 70 50 JAX 84 75 86 73 / 80 40 80 50 SGJ 85 77 87 75 / 80 30 70 40 GNV 86 73 86 72 / 80 20 80 20 OCF 88 74 89 73 / 70 10 80 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ024-033-038-124-125-133- 138-225-325-425.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ033- 038-132-137-325.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138.

GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ153-154-165-166.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ450-452-454-474.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472.