Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orange Park, FL

SHORT TERM
(Monday Night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

High pressure ridge axis will remain situated from the Western Atlantic across the local NE FL/SE GA area, although it is expected to weaken somewhat as a cold front pushes into the SE US states and stalls to the north of the region. For now expect the local area to remain dry with above normal temps as highs continue in the upper 80s/around 90F over inland areas in the southerly steering flow, while the East Coast sea breeze will push inland Tuesday afternoon and will keep the Atlantic Coastal counties from I-95 eastward to the beaches with highs in the lower/middle 80s along with SE winds at 15G20-25 mph during the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Wed/Thu/Fri...Frontal boundary remains stalled across the SE US states while Western Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will attempt to re-build across the region which will continue mostly dry with above normal temperatures and near record highs in the lower 90s inland to the mid/upper 80s along the I-95/US 17 corridors and lower 80s at the Atlantic beaches with a daily East Coast sea breeze expected. A few models are suggesting enough moisture from the frontal boundary may slip far enough southward to trigger isolated showers or a thunderstorm across inland SE GA during the period, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours when this moisture interacts with the East Coast sea breeze, but overall rainfall chances remain at best in the 20-30% range.
Further south across NE FL mostly dry conds are expected, but can't rule out a brief sprinkle/shower as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland each day, but overall rainfall chances will remain only in the 10-15% range.

Next weekend...Longer range models are still testing the ridge axis over the local area by trying to push a frontal boundary into the region from the Northwest or North by the Sunday time frame, but confidence remains low in this scenario as the ridge axis may win out again and have the frontal boundary stall north of the region once again. So for now the forecast will continue with a medium to high confidence of above normal/near record temps continuing with highs in the lower 90s inland and 80s closer to the Atlantic Coast and low confidence of any significant rainfall returning to the region, with better chances that it will likely not happen until next Sunday at the earliest.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period at all locations.
Winds out of the east-southeast will begin to slow after sunset, becoming calm at inland sites. Areas near the coast with stay a bit breezier, with a scattered deck overnight around 2,500 ft and a few clouds pushing in around 4,000ft. Winds will pick up again in the afternoon out of the southeast with the stronger winds at coastal TAF sites around 10-15 kt gusting to 17-19 kt.

MARINE
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Southeasterly winds over local waters into Monday morning as high pressure remains overhead. High pressure will begin to weaken as an incoming frontal boundary pushes close to the local waters, stalling north of the area by midweek. Under the weak flow pattern, the afternoon sea breezes will be the primary weather feature, increasing winds across the nearshore waters around 10 to 15 knots each day.

Rip Currents: High volume of beachgoers coupled with a building surf with the afternoon sea breeze will lead to a High Risk along NE FL beaches. Moderate risk for the SE GA beaches today and at all beaches on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Dry conditions will continue early this week with Min RH values still falling into the 30-35 percent range over inland during the afternoon hours along with pockets of elevated daytime dispersions as well. These conditions should remain below any Red Flag headlines, but now going on 10 days without measurable rainfall across the region, this week will remain a dangerous fire weather situation due to the above normal temperatures and near breezy winds each afternoon as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland.

CLIMATE
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

DAILY RECORD HIGHS

TUE WED THU FRI

JAX 93 (1995) 92 (1970) 93 (1999) 92 (1958)

GNV 94 (1968) 92 (1970) 94 (1999) 93 (1896)

AMG 92 (1970) 94 (1968) 93 (1999) 91 (1958)

CRG 89 (2002) 89 (2020) 92 (1999) 91 (2006)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 67 81 67 80 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 63 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 65 84 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 62 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 61 90 62 91 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333.

GA...None.
AM...None.