Tuesday, July23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Park, FL

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Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 8:27PM Tuesday July 23, 2019 9:08 AM EDT (13:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:40PMMoonset 11:29AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Expires:201907231515;;495303 Fzus52 Kjax 230704 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 304 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-231515- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 304 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
Today..South winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tonight..West southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..North northeast winds around 5 knots becoming east northeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 304 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
Synopsis.. Tropical depression three will track east of the local waters today. A weakening cold front will drop south into the local waters on Wednesday then dissipate Thursday and Friday. This front will be the focus for above normal Thunderstorm chances through the end of the week. High pressure will build north of the waters this weekend.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jul 23, 2019 at 1200 utc... 57 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 65 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 71 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 84 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Park, FL
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location: 30.24, -81.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 230827
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
427 am edt Tue jul 23 2019

Marginal risk of severe storms southeast georgia this evening...

Locally heavy rainfall expected Wednesday and Thursday...

Near term today-tonight
Today... Ne fl SE ga region in between td#3 passing east of the
local waters and ahead of approaching unseasonable late july
frontal boundary. This will lead to last hot humid day with max
temps into the lower 90s for most locations due to southwest
steering flow across the area. Plenty of moisture already in place
with precipitable water amounts (pwats) of 2 inches or slightly
less to allow for daytime heating to trigger scattered to numerous
showers and storms by the afternoon hours that will track off to
the northeast at 10-20 mph and reach the east coast sea breeze
pinned closer to the coast late this afternoon and expect isolated
strong severe storms possible as these mergers take place and
gusty winds of 40-60 mph possible. Expect most of any convection
assocd with td#3 to remain over the coastal waters mainly near the
gulf stream through the day.

Tonight... More intense storms are expected just ahead of the
approaching frontal boundary across inland SE ga early this
evening which will track more quickly towards the east at 20 to 30
mph and reach the SE ga coast by the late evening hours. These
storms have a better chance of reaching severe limits as more
organized storm segments may form as they track across SE ga with
the main threat of damaging winds of 60 mph or more. Scattered
storms will continue through the night ahead of the frontal
boundary across SE ga and even into NE fl after midnight although
a bit weaker some strong storms with wind gusts of 40-50 mph and
locally heavy rainfall. Overnight lows in the 70s expected.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
A potent shortwave trough will pivot eastward from the ohio valley
on Wednesday morning across the mid-atlantic states by Thursday
afternoon, and this feature will push a rare summertime cold front
slowly southward across the interstate 10 corridor by Thursday
afternoon. A ribbon of deep moisture will reside near the cold
front, with model soundings depicting pwat values of 2.1-2.3 inches
advecting from the northeast gulf of mexico across northeast fl and
coastal southeast ga during most of the short term period. Our
region will also reside within the ascending region of a powerful
130 knot jet streak that will be pivoting northeastward from new
england through the canadian maritime region. The positively tilted
deep trough associated with this jet streak will be oriented
southwestward across the appalachians and the lower mississippi
river valley, and this weather pattern will keep a deep
southwesterly flow pattern in place across most of our region that
will push waves of showers and thunderstorms generated over the warm
northeast gulf waters northeastward across most of our region,
especially for locations south and east of waycross and jesup. A
much drier air mass will attempt to push into portions of inland
southeast ga by Wednesday afternoon.

Categorical pops were placed in the forecast grids for locations
along the fl ga border on Wednesday afternoon, with widespread
rainfall totals of 1-2 inches for locations south and east of
waycross and jesup, with locally higher totals occurring where
heavier showers and storms train over the same locations. Highs on
Wednesday will only reach the low to mid 80s. Deep southwesterly
flow will likely continue to generate convection over the northeast
gulf of mexico on Wednesday night, and scattered to numerous pops
were maintained overnight for northeast and north central florida,
with isolated to widely scattered coverage elsewhere, mainly before
midnight. The drier air mass behind the front will allow lows to
fall to the upper 60s across much of inland southeast georgia, with
lower 70s expected elsewhere inland and upper 70s at coastal
locations.

Upper troughing will begin to cutoff over the lower mississippi
valley on Thursday, maintaining a deep southwesterly flow that will
keep the stalled frontal boundary in place along the i-10 corridor,
with likely pops prevailing for locations south and east of waycross
and jesup as waves of showers and thunderstorms continuing to stream
northeastward from the northeast gulf waters. Wednesday and
Thursday's rainfall totals are forecast to be in the 2 to 3 inch
range over most or our area, with locally higher totals possible
along the i-10 corridor. Abundant cloud cover will likely keep the
risk for stronger thunderstorms relatively low, with localized urban
flooding being the main hazard during this evening. Cloudiness will
keep highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s. Scattered convection will
be possible on Thursday night as overall forcing along the front
begins to diminish. Lows on Thursday night will remain in the 70s
area-wide.

Long term Friday through Monday
Atlantic ridging will begin to build westward towards south fl on
Friday, which will keep a highly amplified pattern aloft in place
for another day as the cutoff trough meanders over the southeastern
states, maintaining deep southwest flow in place locally. The
stalled frontal boundary along i-10 corridor will begin to lift
northward late in the day, and this boundary will serve as the focus
for numerous showers and thunderstorms. Model blends place
categorical pops over north central florida, with likely pops along
the i-10 corridor. Mid-level temperatures are expected to cool
slightly on Friday, so coverage of strong thunderstorms may increase
to accompany an ongoing heavy rain threat as pwats remain around 2
inches range. The 00z operational GFS currently indicates weak low
pressure developing along the remnant frontal boundary near the fl
big bend coast, and this would increase rain chances during the
afternoon and evening hours if this wave weak low pressure center
develops. Highs will tick up slightly to the upper 80s as convection
begins to take on a more typical diurnal pattern, although morning
convection will likely continue over the suwannee valley and north
central florida given the persistent southwest flow pattern.

Atlantic ridging will continue to build westward during the weekend,
becoming centered over the fl peninsula by Sunday. This ridge will
finally dislodge the cutoff trough over the southeastern states
northeastward through the southern appalachians on Sunday. This
weather pattern will keep a moist southwesterly flow in place on
Saturday, followed by a weaker westerly flow pattern by Sunday.

Convection will mostly be diurnal in nature, and abundant moisture
levels will remain in place across northeast and north central fl,
where numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
develop along a dominant gulf coast sea breeze that will progress
towards the i-95 corridor by the late afternoon hours. Strong
thunderstorms will remain possible as cool mid-level temperatures
prevail. Highs will climb to the upper 80s to near 90 on Saturday
and then will warm back to near climo values on Sunday and Monday as
highs generally reach the lower 90s before convection develops, with
lows remaining in the 70s. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms may
decrease somewhat by early next week as surface ridging builds along
the southeast coast, shunting deeper moisture gets west of our
region.

Aviation
Vfr with just a few high clouds early this morning and patchy MVFR
fog at vqq. Scattered storms possible in the developing SW flow
after 18z and have kept vcts at all TAF sites, better chances at
ssi during the evening hours after 00z and may need to eventually
add tempo groups for MVFR CIGS vsbys and potential gusty winds.

Marine
Td#3 should pass far enough east of the local waters for southerly
flow to remain in place around 15 knots with local SE sea breezes
at the beaches and seas 2-4 ft. Winds shift to the southwest and
west tonight and Wednesday as weakening frontal boundary sinks
south into the local waters. Winds generally around 15 knots with
seas 2-5 ft with biggest impacts the numerous to widespread storms
with gusty winds, lightning and heavy rainfall. As frontal boundary
dissipates over the local waters on Thursday expect shifting
winds in the 10-15 knot range and seas falling to 1-3 ft, then as
high pressure builds north of the waters for Friday into the
weekend expect a weak onshore flow to develop.

Rip currents: marginal moderate risk still expected along the ne
fl coast with some slightly higher surf breakers 2-3 ft possible
as td#3 passes east of the fl coast, while low risk will continue
along the SE ga beaches.

Hydrology
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3" expected through Thursday with
pockets of 3-6" expected depending on where frontal boundary
eventually stalls. This rainfall event will likely eliminate any
lingering drought areas across NE fl SE ga and will help to reduce
some of the year-to-date rainfall departures up to 5-10" below
normal along the i-10 corridor of NE fl northward through SE ga,
so most of the rainfall will be beneficial, but still expect
localized flooding in some spots, especially in urban areas on
Wednesday and Thursday. Expect river levels to rise in all areas
and some of the smaller basins have the potential to see some
minor flooding such as the st. Mary's, black creek and upper santa
fe river basins.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 93 70 81 68 80 80 50 30
ssi 89 74 85 73 50 70 70 50
jax 92 74 87 72 50 50 90 50
sgj 89 74 86 72 60 40 90 50
gnv 90 73 86 71 60 40 90 50
ocf 89 73 86 72 60 60 80 70

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Hess nelson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NFDF1 11 mi50 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 76°F 1016.4 hPa
DMSF1 12 mi50 min 85°F
BLIF1 13 mi50 min W 4.1 G 6 80°F 1015.7 hPa78°F
LTJF1 16 mi50 min 78°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 17 mi50 min W 5.1 G 6 78°F 84°F1014.8 hPa
RCYF1 31 mi50 min 87°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 32 mi50 min W 2.9 G 5.1 82°F 86°F1015.3 hPa
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 34 mi68 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 79°F 77°F1014.9 hPa (+0.7)
41117 36 mi38 min 80°F2 ft
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 38 mi38 min 81°F2 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi83 min S 1.9 73°F 1016 hPa73°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL0 mi75 minW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F71°F82%1014.3 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL11 mi75 minSW 310.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1014.6 hPa
Cecil Airport, FL11 mi78 minN 010.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1014.9 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL17 mi76 minWSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds77°F73°F88%1014.5 hPa
Jacksonville International Airport, FL18 mi72 minSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds76°F73°F91%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from NIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S8S7S6S9SE9SE104SE8SE8S8SE11SE8S96SW4SW3S5S6SW5SW5W3W3NW4
1 day agoS8S6SE6E8E5NE6E8SE10E7W9W4S3S5CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmW3W3CalmCalmSE5SE5
2 days agoS4SE6S85S664S4SE9W53NW10N9E4SW4S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalm5SW4S3

Tide / Current Tables for Piney Point, St. Johns River, Florida
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Piney Point
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Tue -- 12:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:55 AM EDT     6.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:26 AM EDT     5.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:57 PM EDT     6.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM EDT     5.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.86.16.36.56.56.56.46.265.85.85.85.85.96.26.46.46.46.36.265.85.85.8

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current
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St. Johns River Entrance
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Tue -- 12:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:12 AM EDT     1.79 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:06 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:38 PM EDT     1.94 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:19 PM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.610.3-0.7-1.6-1.9-1.7-1.4-0.9-0.10.91.81.91.40.7-0.2-1.2-1.7-1.7-1.4-1-0.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.