Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Park, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:45PM Sunday March 29, 2020 1:44 AM EDT (05:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:31AMMoonset 11:36PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Expires:202003290915;;226263 Fzus52 Kjax 290111 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 911 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-290915- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 911 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots...becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Monday..North northwest winds around 5 knots becoming east northeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters smooth.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 911 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis.. Surface high pressure ridge will be located south of the area through the weekend. A south to southwest flow will continue, becoming southeast near the coast each afternoon. A weak, dry cold front will push through the area late Sunday night and Monday morning with another stronger cold front pushing through the local waters Tuesday night with potential for small craft advisory conditions. High pressure will build north of the area Wednesday and Thursday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of mar 28, 2020 at 1200 utc... 71 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 79 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 90 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 102 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Park, FL
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location: 30.24, -81.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 290126 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 926 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

UPDATE.

After record highs again today, temps are back down into the 70s at 9 PM this evening with clear skies. Another hot and dry day expected for Sunday.

Satellite imagery shows some thin high cirrus over the area, with a large mid-upper level ridge located over FL and ern GOMEX. Similar to prior nights, moist southwest flow above the sfc will usher in some low stratus to portions of the area late tonight and early Sunday morning, with potential for some dense fog. The highest chance of dense fog and stratus appears to be across the Suwannee Valley again into parts of inland southeast GA. Main update change was to add in some dense fog wording for these areas around the 5AM-9AM Sunday time frame Otherwise. only minor tweaks to the forecast.

MARINE.

SCEC headline for the marine waters looks good. At 9 PM, C-MAN SAUF1 south at 18 knots, with JAX beach at 17G22kt. Consensus of model guidance shows winds should shift around the southwest later tonight and slowly decrease. Rest of the forecast is on track.

PREV DISCUSSION [756 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Synopsis . High pressure aloft will remain over the region through the weekend, keeping well above normal temperatures and rain-free conditions in place.

Tonight: Moist Low level flow off the NE GOMEX will help to develop another round of dense fog across the Suwannee Valley/I-75 corridor of inland North FL, spreading northward into inland SE GA through sunrise and dense fog advisories may be needed again if it becomes widespread. Lows will be in the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night].

Sunday: Strong mid/upper level ridging over the Central Gulf of Mexico through the Florida peninsula continues to dominate our weather pattern. The region will remain characterized as hot and dry as a subsidence inversion above the surface keeps our region suppressed and rain free. Seabreeze development will be pinned mainly along the coast somewhat dampening the effects of heating near the beaches, but overall all locations will experience very warm and above average and record temperatures. Highs once again in the lower/middle 90s inland and the beaches will be in the upper 80s/near 90 degrees as sea breeze struggles to develop late in the day.

Sunday night: High pressure ridge at the surface and aloft gets shunted a tad southward as weak frontal boundary with very little moisture pushes south near the FL/ GA border region Sunday Night. Lack of moisture will keep rain chances near nil. Minimums will be above normal with lows in the 60s.

Monday and Monday night: The frontal boundary will linger and around the I-10 corridor as a weak residual boundary. A zonal flow aloft will persist over the region as a short wave trof moves into the Lone Star State. Weaker SW flow will allow for sea breeze fronts to push further inland for slightly cooler temps at the Atlc beaches in the lower 80s, but highs into the lower 90s will continue over far inland areas. By Monday night, the aforementioned short wave trough moves into the ArkLaMiss region with attendant front moving into western Mississippi. High clouds will start increasing late Monday night. Lows Monday night will be in the 60s.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday].

Tuesday and Tuesday night: A low pressure system will develop over the SE US on Tuesday and deepens as it tracks into the Carolinas Tue evening. This will lead to one more day of above normal heat with highs in the mid to upper 80s area-wide with breezy SW flow ahead of the trailing cold frontal passage expected by Tuesday Night. SPC has portions of the Suwannee Valley and SE GA in the Day 4 outlook for a severe potential. Precipitable water values rapidly increase Tuesday afternoon and evening between 1.50 and 1.75 inches with CAPES increasing (750-1000 J/kg) with decent low level shear. Pre-frontal showers and storms can be expected with potential for isolated severe storms, with best chances of rainfall and localized severe weather across SE GA with lessening storm impacts and rainfall coverage into NE FL. The front should push south of the area Tuesday night with cooler and drier air filtering into the area.

Wed-Sat . overall cooler conditions mid week as high pressure system builds north of the area over the TN and Ohio Valleys. behind the cold front. Generally progress flow aloft with ridge aloft moving through the ern U.S. Thursday night and Friday. As a result, a sfc ridge will push offshore of the Carolinas allowing low level winds to veer and airmass to moisten and warm a bit. A series of shortwaves will push into the MS and Ohio Valleys early Friday and into the southeast states Friday night through Saturday. Associated isentropic ascent aloft and an approaching cold front will lead to increasing rain chances into Friday and Saturday. Have capped POPs at 20-30 percent for now due to a few differences in how the GFS and ECMWF handle this system. Temps will be closer to climatology with highs in the 70s to some lower 80s. Min temps in the 40s to lower 50s Thursday morning will moderate to the lower to middle 50s as clouds increase through latter portions of this period.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Monday]

For late tonight increasing chances for reduced cigs and vsby from stratus and fog forecast over the Suwannee Valley and adjacent areas, likely including GNV between about 09-14Z with IFR maintained in the TAF for now. Some chance for MVFR conditions for VQQ as well by about 10z- 13z. At this time, low confidence on any low stratus moving to JAX TAF and thus have left out of the forecast. Otherwise, VFR prevails.

Winds tonight will stay breezy along the coast from the south- southeast, but becoming light and variable inland TAFs. Winds will increase by 14z-15z on Sunday from the southwest near 10 kt . becoming a bit more south for SSI, CRG, and SGJ as the Atlantic sea breeze develops.

MARINE.

High pressure ridge will remain well offshore through late Sunday continuing south-southwest flow with speeds near 15 kt to 15-20 kt tonight with SCEC headlined. Winds should gradually weaken to near 10-15 kt late Sunday night as the pressure gradient weakens. Weak frontal boundary still slides through the waters Sunday night with a shift to light onshore flow on Monday. Winds will become southwest again Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches. Frontal passage looks to be Tuesday night, with potential for Small Craft Advisory, with highest confidence for these conditions offshore waters. Gusty northwest/north flow expected to develop behind the front on late Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for NE FL with surf/breakers at 2-3 ft, while Low Risk exists for SE GA with surf 1-2 ft.

FIRE WEATHER.

Min humidities will bottom out in the 30-40 percent range through Sunday but remain above critical levels. Dispersions will a bit elevated for parts of southeast GA rest of today and Sunday. Lower dispersion values area-wide on Monday.

HYDROLOGY.

At this time, we are not anticipating a whole lot of rain with the cold frontal passage on Tuesday/Tuesday night with average rainfall amounts roughly in the range of 0.15 to 0.45 inches in southeast GA and lower values for northeast FL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 63 91 64 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 10 SSI 66 85 67 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 JAX 64 93 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 SGJ 66 90 65 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 GNV 62 91 62 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 10 OCF 62 92 62 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NFDF1 11 mi56 min W 1 G 4.1 73°F
DMSF1 12 mi56 min 75°F
BLIF1 13 mi62 min SW 4.1 G 4.1 74°F 1018.8 hPa74°F
LTJF1 16 mi62 min 73°F 68°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 17 mi56 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 70°F1018.3 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 32 mi56 min S 4.1 G 5.1
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 34 mi44 min SSW 7 G 8 73°F 71°F1018.6 hPa (+0.8)
41117 36 mi74 min 71°F3 ft
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 38 mi44 min 70°F3 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi119 min S 1.9 72°F 1020 hPa66°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL0 mi51 minW 710.00 miFair78°F63°F60%1017.9 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL11 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair70°F66°F90%1018.1 hPa
Cecil Airport, FL11 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair63°F59°F88%1018.6 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL17 mi52 minSSE 310.00 miFair70°F66°F87%1018 hPa
Jacksonville International Airport, FL18 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair69°F64°F87%1018.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNIP

Wind History from NIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S4W4W6SW3W3CalmCalmS5S4S7SE8SE7SE7S8W8W9E9E7SE7S8S8SW4W7
1 day agoS7S7S8S7S7S10SW8SW5S8S4S7S8SE8S10S9SW7W11W8SW6SE8S6S7W6W4
2 days agoW8W6W6N8NW4N7NE7NE7E8E12E11E12E11E11SE10E13E12E13E12SE10SE9SE8S9S8

Tide / Current Tables for Piney Point, St. Johns River, Florida
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Piney Point
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Sun -- 02:50 AM EDT     6.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:46 AM EDT     5.79 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:51 PM EDT     6.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:03 PM EDT     5.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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66.36.56.56.56.46.265.85.85.85.866.26.46.56.46.36.25.95.85.75.75.8

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current
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St. Johns River Entrance
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Sun -- 02:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:57 AM EDT     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:40 AM EDT     1.56 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     -1.82 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:03 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.20.3-0.8-1.8-2.1-1.8-1.4-0.9-0.20.71.41.510.4-0.4-1.3-1.8-1.7-1.2-0.7-00.91.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.