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Marine Weather and Tides Gulf Shores, AL Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:43AM

Sunset 5:25PM

Tuesday January 28, 2020 4:24 AM CST (10:24 UTC)

Moonrise 10:12AM

Moonset 9:56PM

Illumination 12%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Shores, AL

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Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL

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FXUS64 KMOB 280533 AAB AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

DISCUSSION. See updated information for land areas and aviation discussion below.

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday Night/. An upper trof advances across the southern Plains then moves to near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley by late Tuesday night. An associated surface low advances from northern Texas into central Louisiana while a surface ridge over the forecast area moves off to the east. Areas of dense fog will likely have developed over the area overnight for which a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect which then dissipates by mid Tuesday morning. A light southerly flow develops over the area on Tuesday and continues into Tuesday night and is sufficient to increase precipitable water values from initially 0.5 inch to 0.75-1.0 inch by late in the night. Dry conditions continue through Tuesday evening, then increasing isentropic lift seen in the 290-300K layer will support chance to likely pops over the western half of the area late Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday will be 60 to 65 and lows Tuesday night range from the lower 40s well inland to near 50 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night. /29

AVIATION. 06Z issuance . Challenging ceiling/visibility forecast at the TAF sites which depends on how a dense fog event plays out overnight. Patchy dense fog will likely evolve into areas of dense fog overnight which then dissipates by mid Tuesday morning. Calm to light northerly winds overnight become easterly 5 to 10 knots by mid Tuesday morning, then become southeasterly in the afternoon. /29

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 521 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020/

DISCUSSION . Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION . 00Z issuance . An MVFR ceiling over the southern portion of the area shifts southward into the marine area shortly after issuance time leaving VFR conditions over the area. Will need to monitor for fog development overnight, with the potential for IFR or lower conditions late tonight. Any fog that develops will dissipate by mid Tuesday morning leaving VFR conditions. Light northerly winds tonight become easterly 5 to 10 knots Tuesday morning, then switch to the southeast in the afternoon. /29

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 242 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/ . Surface low pressure over the northeastern Gulf south of Apalachicola Florida early this evening is expected to open into a trough and be oriented over the southeastern Gulf by late tonight as high pressure (surface and aloft) builds into our forecast area from the west. During the day on Tuesday the high pressure will drift over and then just to the east of the forecast area. A drier northeasterly low level flow is expected tonight, becoming more easterly on Tuesday. This will bring drier air into the region, with dewpoints dropping from the mid and upper 40s today to the low and mid 40s by Tuesday. The drier air combined with the ridging aloft should result in less cloud cover on Tuesday, but some thin high clouds may persist. No rainfall is expected through the near term forecast period. Tonight, skies may clear slightly during the evening (but this is more uncertain than previously thought due to the lingering clouds during the day on Monday). With the wet ground from the recent rainfall, could see enough radiational cooling this evening for the development of patchy fog, possibly becoming more widespread overnight and potentially dense in some locations if there are enough breaks in low cloud cover this evening. Due to the uncertainties of how much radiational cooling we will get due to lingering cloud cover, we will not issue a Dense Fog Advisory for tonight at this time but will have to monitor for that possibility overnight. Lows tonight ranging from the upper 30s and lower 40s over interior zones, but low to mid 40s down toward and along the coast. Highs on Tuesday expected to mainly be in the low to mid 60s. /12

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/ . An upper shortwave ejects from the southern Rockies eastward across the South Plains Tuesday night. Surface cyclogenesis associated with this upper wave develops a weak low over the TX/OK Red River Valley which then pushes quickly southeast into the lower Mississippi River Valley by early Wednesday morning. As this system approaches, rain chances increase across the local area from west to east throughout the day Wednesday. Guidance remains in good agreement with tracking this surface low right along the coast, leaving most land areas entrenched in a cool and stable airmass. Thus, expecting showers to be primary mode, though a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out in heavier cells as some weak elevated instability (MUCAPE ~200 J/kg) could develop right above the stable surface layer. Greatest chance for thunder will be right along the coast and offshore where there will be more instability along/south of a weak warm front.

This system pushes through quickly on Wednesday, with rain chances quickly tapering off from west to east by Wednesday night. Thursday will be dry as high pressure briefly builds back into the area. Temperatures change little through the short term, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees each afternoon and lows in the 40s each night. /49

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/ . A much deeper trough pushes east across the Great Plains states to begin the long term period and a broad swath of enhanced upper-level winds spreads downstream over the Deep South and Southeast. Expecting showers to return to the area as a result Friday into early Saturday. However, any surface reflection would occur to our south over the open Gulf waters, leaving the local area still firmly entrenched in a cool and stable airmass at the surface. Thus, still expecting a cool rain regime with little chance for thunder, let alone organized convection.

It takes some time for the upper longwave trough to organize as a series of weak shortwave impulses progress through the flow. By the time the longwave trough can fall into phase and deepen, it will be over the far eastern CONUS and the local area beneath its western flank and large-scale subsidence aloft. A surface low forms off the Southeast Atlantic coast and lifts northeast along the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, here along the central Gulf coast, dry conditions prevail under northwest flow Sunday into early next week. Temperatures continue to run steadily in the upper 50s and 60s each afternoon and 40s each night throughout the period. /49

MARINE . A very progressive pattern continues over the coastal waters this week as a series of low pressure areas move east across or near the marine area. Expect an increase in both winds and seas with each of the passing weather systems, but most likely remaining just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. The first low will be departing the marine area to the east Monday evening. A second area of low pressure will move east across the marine area on Wednesday, and a third low pressure area will move east across the Gulf (most likely to the south of our marine area) Friday and Friday night. Winds and seas will most likely be highest in association with the Wednesday system as current model data indicates that system will move east directly across the marine area and also that it will likely be the stronger of the two systems. This is the system that will have to be monitored most closely for a potential Small Craft Advisory. Seas generally in the 2 to 4 foot range through most of the week, but potentially as high as 4 to 6 feet (possibly higher) Wednesday and Wednesday night. /12

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for FLZ201>206.

MS . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PPTA1	8 mi	55 min		47°F			1016.9 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy	14 mi	35 min	NE 9.7 G 14	55°F	63°F	2 ft	1016.9 hPa	50°F
WBYA1	14 mi	55 min			57°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL	14 mi	100 min		40°F			1017 hPa	40°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL	18 mi	55 min		51°F			1016.6 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL	20 mi	85 min	NE 7 G 7	52°F			1016.8 hPa (+0.0)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL	24 mi	55 min	N 2.9	48°F			1016.3 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL	28 mi	85 min	NE 5.1	50°F			1017.6 hPa (+0.7)
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL	28 mi	55 min		46°F			1016.9 hPa
MBPA1	29 mi	55 min		44°F				44°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL	32 mi	55 min	Calm	44°F			1016.6 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL	34 mi	55 min		54°F	54°F		1017.3 hPa
PTOA1	35 mi	55 min		46°F				45°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL	37 mi	61 min		42°F	53°F		1017 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS	40 mi	100 min	N 4.1	45°F			1018 hPa	45°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS	43 mi	61 min		51°F			1016.9 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS	47 mi	61 min			53°F
42067 - USM3M02	49 mi	85 min	NE 7.8 G 9.7	54°F		2 ft	1016.6 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Fort Morgan, AL

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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Last 24hr

NE13

NE12

N12

N13

NE12

NE10

N15

N18

N19

N21

N19

N11 G15

NE11

NE7

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1 day ago

NW10

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E4

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SE4 G7

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SE18

SE22

SE15

SE10 G13

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2 days ago

NE6

N4

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NW3

N2 G5

NW2

S3

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SW5

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SW8

SW10

W8

W8

W9

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W9

W8

W4

NW2

S4

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL	4 mi	50 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	37°F	37°F	100%	1016.9 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL	18 mi	50 min	N 0	1.25 mi	Fog/Mist	36°F	35°F	100%	1016.9 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL	21 mi	2.5 hrs	N 0	4.00 mi	Fog/Mist	41°F	39°F	96%	1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJKA

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

NE3

N5

N9

NE5

N6

N5

N7 G15

N10 G19

N8 G19

N8

N8 G16

NE6

N3

N3

Calm

N6

SE4

Calm

Calm

N3

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

1 day ago

Calm

Calm

NW4

Calm

S4

Calm

Calm

E4

Calm

NE5

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SE10 G15

E5

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NE3

2 days ago

Calm

Calm

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N3

NW7

NW4

W6

NW6 G14

N8 G17

W7

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W3

NW3

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama

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Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (5,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL

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Gulf Stream Current

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