Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Shores, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:09PM Saturday March 28, 2020 12:47 PM CDT (17:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:19AMMoonset 11:04PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1055 Am Cdt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Tonight..South winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Sunday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Sunday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1055 Am Cdt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis..Moderate southerly winds will continue through today, then diminish tonight and become southwesterly early Sunday. A light southeasterly flow will then develop Monday, then switch to a moderate to strong southwesterly flow Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Showers and storms are also expected ahead and along the front on Tuesday. A moderate northerly flow is then expected to develop late Tuesday night as the front moves through the area. Winds will decrease somewhat through the day on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Shores, AL
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location: 30.24, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 281124 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 624 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . Predominately MVFR ceilings are currently present over much of the area with some localized IFR to VLIFR conditions in fog or low ceilings mainly over south central Alabama. Conditions improve to VFR across the entire area later this morning then IFR to MVFR conditions develop late tonight. South winds increase to 10 to 15 knots today then subside to near 5 knots tonight while a weak front approaches from the north. Isolated to scattered showers with a possible embedded storm develop late tonight over interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama as the front approaches. /29

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 315 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/ . An upper trof advances across the Plains today then ejects off across the Great Lakes region through Sunday. An associated surface low which has developed to the lee of the Rockies over the central Plains deepens and occludes while likewise moving off to the Great Lakes, and brings a weak trailing cold front into the forecast area on Sunday. Model soundings show abundant dry air aloft on Sunday as the front moves into the area but also show a cap near 750 mb, both which are subsidence attributes left over from an upper ridge earlier over the region. While indicated SBCAPEs are 1000-1500 J/kg along/ahead of the front on Sunday, the cap looks to prevent deep convection from developing although this will need to be monitored. Dry conditions continue over the area through this evening then will have slight chance to chance pops return to interior southwest Alabama and much of interior southeast Mississippi after midnight as the weak front approaches and begins to move into the area. Slight chance to chance pops follow for much of the area on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight into Sunday.

Highs today range from the upper 80s/near 90 inland to the mid 80s closer to the coast and record highs are possible at both Mobile and Pensacola where current records are 84 and 83 respectively. Highs on Sunday will be cooler well inland where values near 80 are expected while closer to the coast highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected. While highs on Sunday at Mobile look to be about 2 degrees below the record of 85, the current record of 83 for Pensacola will likely be tied.

A high risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday mainly due to a 2-4 ft/6-7 sec onshore swell. /29

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Monday night/ . The front sinks to near the central Gulf coast Sunday night where it stalls and becomes more diffuse. As upper low migrates eastward over the northeast US into the day Monday, the flow aloft begins to flatten briefly over the local area. The next southern stream storm system over the Plains Monday ejects eastward, bringing lowering mid-level height falls and lowering surface pressure into the Mid- MS River Valley/Mid-South by daybreak Tuesday. Extending out from the low, a cold front approaches from the west with scattered to numerous showers developing by late Monday night primarily along and west of I-65 and an isolated coverage elsewhere. A few embedded thunderstorms possible over the northwestern portions of our forecast area.

Lows Sunday night ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Monday night about 2 to 4 degrees warmer on average. Similar highs on Monday from that on Sunday. /10

EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/ . Numerous to definite rain showers, along with embedded scattered thunderstorms, will occur on Tuesday in response to another surface low pressure area tracking from the southern Great Plains across the lower Mississippi River Valley, across northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama during the day on Tuesday and then into Georgia by Tuesday evening. The new 28/00Z GFS and the older 27/12Z ECMWF remain similar with the timing and track of this system and both of similar intensity, although ECMWF still with slightly stronger forcing. Both models indicate that we will be in the warm sector of this system, so we may see a few of the embedded thunderstorms become strong as MUCape values could increase to between 600 to 800 J/KG across much of the area, and possibly up to 1000 J/KG or slightly higher according to the GFS. As such, we will need to monitor over time the evolution of this system for the potential of some strong to possibly severe storms Tuesday. According the latest medium range outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center, strong shear and seemingly adequate moisture/instability appear to warrant the introduction of 15-percent severe probabilities over the northeast Gulf Coast which equates to a slight risk Tuesday. The precipitation will taper off quickly from west to east Tuesday evening, followed by dry conditions through the remainder of the long term as large high pressure builds in from the northwest.

A little cooler during the extended period, with daytime highs mainly in the 70s, and nighttime lows in the upper 40s and in the 50s. /10/12

MARINE . Moderate southerly winds diminish and become southwesterly on Sunday as a weak front approaches from the north. A light southeasterly flow follows for Monday then switches to a moderate to strong southwesterly flow on Tuesday as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. A moderate to occasionally strong northerly flow develops Tuesday night as the front moves through the area then the offshore flow diminishes somewhat on Wednesday. Showers and storms are expected ahead and along the front mostly on Tuesday. /29

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 8 mi48 min 81°F 1016.9 hPa (+1.4)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 14 mi18 min SSE 12 G 14 76°F 76°F1016.3 hPa74°F
WBYA1 14 mi48 min 78°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 14 mi63 min 80°F 1016 hPa72°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 18 mi54 min S 12 G 13 79°F 1016.2 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 20 mi48 min S 11 G 13 78°F 1016 hPa (+1.0)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 22 mi138 min SE 13 76°F 1016.3 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 24 mi48 min S 13 78°F 1016.3 hPa (+1.0)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 28 mi48 min S 12 76°F 1016.6 hPa (+1.4)
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 28 mi48 min S 8 G 9.9 78°F 77°F1016.7 hPa (+0.9)
MBPA1 29 mi48 min 78°F 75°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 32 mi48 min S 11 74°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.3)
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 34 mi48 min S 12 G 18 82°F 75°F1016.2 hPa (+1.1)
PTOA1 35 mi48 min 78°F 72°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 37 mi48 min 76°F 70°F1016.2 hPa (+1.0)
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 40 mi63 min S 11 78°F 1017 hPa74°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 43 mi48 min S 9.9 G 12 79°F 1016 hPa (+1.2)
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 47 mi48 min 75°F
42067 - USM3M02 49 mi48 min S 9.7 G 14 76°F 4 ft1015.6 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Fort Morgan, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL4 mi73 minS 10 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F72°F77%1016.6 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL18 mi73 minS 14 G 1710.00 miOvercast79°F69°F74%1016.3 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL21 mi1.9 hrsS 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F71°F72%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJKA

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:18 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:22 PM CDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:07 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:04 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.11.21.41.51.61.61.51.31.10.90.70.50.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:24 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:45 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:08 AM CDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:19 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:22 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:43 PM CDT     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:05 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.10.40.60.70.80.910.90.90.70.60.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.7-0.9-1.1-1.2-1.2-1.1-1-0.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.