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Marine Weather and Tides Gulf Shores, AL Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:43AM

Sunset 7:09PM

Saturday March 28, 2020 12:47 PM CDT (17:47 UTC)

Moonrise 9:19AM

Moonset 11:04PM

Illumination 22%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Shores, AL

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Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL

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FXUS64 KMOB 281124 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 624 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . Predominately MVFR ceilings are currently present over much of the area with some localized IFR to VLIFR conditions in fog or low ceilings mainly over south central Alabama. Conditions improve to VFR across the entire area later this morning then IFR to MVFR conditions develop late tonight. South winds increase to 10 to 15 knots today then subside to near 5 knots tonight while a weak front approaches from the north. Isolated to scattered showers with a possible embedded storm develop late tonight over interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama as the front approaches. /29

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 315 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/ . An upper trof advances across the Plains today then ejects off across the Great Lakes region through Sunday. An associated surface low which has developed to the lee of the Rockies over the central Plains deepens and occludes while likewise moving off to the Great Lakes, and brings a weak trailing cold front into the forecast area on Sunday. Model soundings show abundant dry air aloft on Sunday as the front moves into the area but also show a cap near 750 mb, both which are subsidence attributes left over from an upper ridge earlier over the region. While indicated SBCAPEs are 1000-1500 J/kg along/ahead of the front on Sunday, the cap looks to prevent deep convection from developing although this will need to be monitored. Dry conditions continue over the area through this evening then will have slight chance to chance pops return to interior southwest Alabama and much of interior southeast Mississippi after midnight as the weak front approaches and begins to move into the area. Slight chance to chance pops follow for much of the area on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight into Sunday.

Highs today range from the upper 80s/near 90 inland to the mid 80s closer to the coast and record highs are possible at both Mobile and Pensacola where current records are 84 and 83 respectively. Highs on Sunday will be cooler well inland where values near 80 are expected while closer to the coast highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected. While highs on Sunday at Mobile look to be about 2 degrees below the record of 85, the current record of 83 for Pensacola will likely be tied.

A high risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday mainly due to a 2-4 ft/6-7 sec onshore swell. /29

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Monday night/ . The front sinks to near the central Gulf coast Sunday night where it stalls and becomes more diffuse. As upper low migrates eastward over the northeast US into the day Monday, the flow aloft begins to flatten briefly over the local area. The next southern stream storm system over the Plains Monday ejects eastward, bringing lowering mid-level height falls and lowering surface pressure into the Mid- MS River Valley/Mid-South by daybreak Tuesday. Extending out from the low, a cold front approaches from the west with scattered to numerous showers developing by late Monday night primarily along and west of I-65 and an isolated coverage elsewhere. A few embedded thunderstorms possible over the northwestern portions of our forecast area.

Lows Sunday night ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Monday night about 2 to 4 degrees warmer on average. Similar highs on Monday from that on Sunday. /10

EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/ . Numerous to definite rain showers, along with embedded scattered thunderstorms, will occur on Tuesday in response to another surface low pressure area tracking from the southern Great Plains across the lower Mississippi River Valley, across northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama during the day on Tuesday and then into Georgia by Tuesday evening. The new 28/00Z GFS and the older 27/12Z ECMWF remain similar with the timing and track of this system and both of similar intensity, although ECMWF still with slightly stronger forcing. Both models indicate that we will be in the warm sector of this system, so we may see a few of the embedded thunderstorms become strong as MUCape values could increase to between 600 to 800 J/KG across much of the area, and possibly up to 1000 J/KG or slightly higher according to the GFS. As such, we will need to monitor over time the evolution of this system for the potential of some strong to possibly severe storms Tuesday. According the latest medium range outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center, strong shear and seemingly adequate moisture/instability appear to warrant the introduction of 15-percent severe probabilities over the northeast Gulf Coast which equates to a slight risk Tuesday. The precipitation will taper off quickly from west to east Tuesday evening, followed by dry conditions through the remainder of the long term as large high pressure builds in from the northwest.

A little cooler during the extended period, with daytime highs mainly in the 70s, and nighttime lows in the upper 40s and in the 50s. /10/12

MARINE . Moderate southerly winds diminish and become southwesterly on Sunday as a weak front approaches from the north. A light southeasterly flow follows for Monday then switches to a moderate to strong southwesterly flow on Tuesday as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. A moderate to occasionally strong northerly flow develops Tuesday night as the front moves through the area then the offshore flow diminishes somewhat on Wednesday. Showers and storms are expected ahead and along the front mostly on Tuesday. /29

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PPTA1	8 mi	48 min		81°F			1016.9 hPa (+1.4)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy	14 mi	18 min	SSE 12 G 14	76°F	76°F		1016.3 hPa	74°F
WBYA1	14 mi	48 min			78°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL	14 mi	63 min		80°F			1016 hPa	72°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL	18 mi	54 min	S 12 G 13	79°F			1016.2 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL	20 mi	48 min	S 11 G 13	78°F			1016 hPa (+1.0)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL	22 mi	138 min	SE 13	76°F			1016.3 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL	24 mi	48 min	S 13	78°F			1016.3 hPa (+1.0)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL	28 mi	48 min	S 12	76°F			1016.6 hPa (+1.4)
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL	28 mi	48 min	S 8 G 9.9	78°F	77°F		1016.7 hPa (+0.9)
MBPA1	29 mi	48 min		78°F				75°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL	32 mi	48 min	S 11	74°F			1015.9 hPa (+0.3)
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL	34 mi	48 min	S 12 G 18	82°F	75°F		1016.2 hPa (+1.1)
PTOA1	35 mi	48 min		78°F				72°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL	37 mi	48 min		76°F	70°F		1016.2 hPa (+1.0)
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS	40 mi	63 min	S 11	78°F			1017 hPa	74°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS	43 mi	48 min	S 9.9 G 12	79°F			1016 hPa (+1.2)
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS	47 mi	48 min			75°F
42067 - USM3M02	49 mi	48 min	S 9.7 G 14	76°F		4 ft	1015.6 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Fort Morgan, AL

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL	4 mi	73 min	S 10 G 16	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	80°F	72°F	77%	1016.6 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL	18 mi	73 min	S 14 G 17	10.00 mi	Overcast	79°F	69°F	74%	1016.3 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL	21 mi	1.9 hrs	S 11	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	81°F	71°F	72%	1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJKA

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)

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SW8 G18

S11 G15

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S11 G15

S10 G15

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S12 G18

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1 day ago

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Calm

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N5

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S8 G14

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Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama

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Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (13,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL

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Gulf Stream Current

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