Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Shores, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:25PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 4:24 AM CST (10:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:12AMMoonset 9:56PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 341 Am Cst Tue Jan 28 2020
.small craft should exercise caution tonight...
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 8 to 13 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 13 to 18 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast. Gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 341 Am Cst Tue Jan 28 2020
Synopsis..A light to moderate northeast wind flow early today will shift southeast and build late this afternoon and tonight ahead of a developing surface low approaching from the west. The area of low pressure will move east across the marine area on Wednesday leading to better rain chances late tonight through Wednesday afternoon. A moderate northeast flow is expected in the wake of the surface low Wednesday night through Friday in response to a cold front that moves south over the north central gulf early Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Shores, AL
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location: 30.24, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 280533 AAB AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

DISCUSSION. See updated information for land areas and aviation discussion below.

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday Night/. An upper trof advances across the southern Plains then moves to near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley by late Tuesday night. An associated surface low advances from northern Texas into central Louisiana while a surface ridge over the forecast area moves off to the east. Areas of dense fog will likely have developed over the area overnight for which a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect which then dissipates by mid Tuesday morning. A light southerly flow develops over the area on Tuesday and continues into Tuesday night and is sufficient to increase precipitable water values from initially 0.5 inch to 0.75-1.0 inch by late in the night. Dry conditions continue through Tuesday evening, then increasing isentropic lift seen in the 290-300K layer will support chance to likely pops over the western half of the area late Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday will be 60 to 65 and lows Tuesday night range from the lower 40s well inland to near 50 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night. /29

AVIATION. 06Z issuance . Challenging ceiling/visibility forecast at the TAF sites which depends on how a dense fog event plays out overnight. Patchy dense fog will likely evolve into areas of dense fog overnight which then dissipates by mid Tuesday morning. Calm to light northerly winds overnight become easterly 5 to 10 knots by mid Tuesday morning, then become southeasterly in the afternoon. /29

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 521 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020/

DISCUSSION . Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION . 00Z issuance . An MVFR ceiling over the southern portion of the area shifts southward into the marine area shortly after issuance time leaving VFR conditions over the area. Will need to monitor for fog development overnight, with the potential for IFR or lower conditions late tonight. Any fog that develops will dissipate by mid Tuesday morning leaving VFR conditions. Light northerly winds tonight become easterly 5 to 10 knots Tuesday morning, then switch to the southeast in the afternoon. /29

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 242 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/ . Surface low pressure over the northeastern Gulf south of Apalachicola Florida early this evening is expected to open into a trough and be oriented over the southeastern Gulf by late tonight as high pressure (surface and aloft) builds into our forecast area from the west. During the day on Tuesday the high pressure will drift over and then just to the east of the forecast area. A drier northeasterly low level flow is expected tonight, becoming more easterly on Tuesday. This will bring drier air into the region, with dewpoints dropping from the mid and upper 40s today to the low and mid 40s by Tuesday. The drier air combined with the ridging aloft should result in less cloud cover on Tuesday, but some thin high clouds may persist. No rainfall is expected through the near term forecast period. Tonight, skies may clear slightly during the evening (but this is more uncertain than previously thought due to the lingering clouds during the day on Monday). With the wet ground from the recent rainfall, could see enough radiational cooling this evening for the development of patchy fog, possibly becoming more widespread overnight and potentially dense in some locations if there are enough breaks in low cloud cover this evening. Due to the uncertainties of how much radiational cooling we will get due to lingering cloud cover, we will not issue a Dense Fog Advisory for tonight at this time but will have to monitor for that possibility overnight. Lows tonight ranging from the upper 30s and lower 40s over interior zones, but low to mid 40s down toward and along the coast. Highs on Tuesday expected to mainly be in the low to mid 60s. /12

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/ . An upper shortwave ejects from the southern Rockies eastward across the South Plains Tuesday night. Surface cyclogenesis associated with this upper wave develops a weak low over the TX/OK Red River Valley which then pushes quickly southeast into the lower Mississippi River Valley by early Wednesday morning. As this system approaches, rain chances increase across the local area from west to east throughout the day Wednesday. Guidance remains in good agreement with tracking this surface low right along the coast, leaving most land areas entrenched in a cool and stable airmass. Thus, expecting showers to be primary mode, though a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out in heavier cells as some weak elevated instability (MUCAPE ~200 J/kg) could develop right above the stable surface layer. Greatest chance for thunder will be right along the coast and offshore where there will be more instability along/south of a weak warm front.

This system pushes through quickly on Wednesday, with rain chances quickly tapering off from west to east by Wednesday night. Thursday will be dry as high pressure briefly builds back into the area. Temperatures change little through the short term, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees each afternoon and lows in the 40s each night. /49

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/ . A much deeper trough pushes east across the Great Plains states to begin the long term period and a broad swath of enhanced upper-level winds spreads downstream over the Deep South and Southeast. Expecting showers to return to the area as a result Friday into early Saturday. However, any surface reflection would occur to our south over the open Gulf waters, leaving the local area still firmly entrenched in a cool and stable airmass at the surface. Thus, still expecting a cool rain regime with little chance for thunder, let alone organized convection.

It takes some time for the upper longwave trough to organize as a series of weak shortwave impulses progress through the flow. By the time the longwave trough can fall into phase and deepen, it will be over the far eastern CONUS and the local area beneath its western flank and large-scale subsidence aloft. A surface low forms off the Southeast Atlantic coast and lifts northeast along the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, here along the central Gulf coast, dry conditions prevail under northwest flow Sunday into early next week. Temperatures continue to run steadily in the upper 50s and 60s each afternoon and 40s each night throughout the period. /49

MARINE . A very progressive pattern continues over the coastal waters this week as a series of low pressure areas move east across or near the marine area. Expect an increase in both winds and seas with each of the passing weather systems, but most likely remaining just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. The first low will be departing the marine area to the east Monday evening. A second area of low pressure will move east across the marine area on Wednesday, and a third low pressure area will move east across the Gulf (most likely to the south of our marine area) Friday and Friday night. Winds and seas will most likely be highest in association with the Wednesday system as current model data indicates that system will move east directly across the marine area and also that it will likely be the stronger of the two systems. This is the system that will have to be monitored most closely for a potential Small Craft Advisory. Seas generally in the 2 to 4 foot range through most of the week, but potentially as high as 4 to 6 feet (possibly higher) Wednesday and Wednesday night. /12

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for FLZ201>206.

MS . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 8 mi55 min 47°F 1016.9 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 14 mi35 min NE 9.7 G 14 55°F 63°F2 ft1016.9 hPa50°F
WBYA1 14 mi55 min 57°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 14 mi100 min 40°F 1017 hPa40°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 18 mi55 min 51°F 1016.6 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 20 mi85 min NE 7 G 7 52°F 1016.8 hPa (+0.0)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 24 mi55 min N 2.9 48°F 1016.3 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 28 mi85 min NE 5.1 50°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.7)
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 28 mi55 min 46°F 1016.9 hPa
MBPA1 29 mi55 min 44°F 44°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 32 mi55 min Calm 44°F 1016.6 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 34 mi55 min 54°F 54°F1017.3 hPa
PTOA1 35 mi55 min 46°F 45°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 37 mi61 min 42°F 53°F1017 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 40 mi100 min N 4.1 45°F 1018 hPa45°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 43 mi61 min 51°F 1016.9 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 47 mi61 min 53°F
42067 - USM3M02 49 mi85 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 54°F 2 ft1016.6 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Fort Morgan, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL4 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair37°F37°F100%1016.9 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL18 mi50 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist36°F35°F100%1016.9 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL21 mi2.5 hrsN 04.00 miFog/Mist41°F39°F96%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJKA

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3N5N9NE5N6N5N7
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NE6N3N3CalmN6SE4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmNW4CalmS4CalmCalmE4CalmNE5NE5NE4NE4SE10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW7NW4W6NW6
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W7W6W6W5W3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:40 AM CST     1.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:12 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:12 AM CST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:23 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:56 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.110.80.60.40.2-0-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.100.10.30.40.50.60.60.60.70.70.8

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:31 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:45 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:02 AM CST     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:13 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:31 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:25 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:10 PM CST     1.25 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:57 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.2-0.2-0.6-1-1.3-1.5-1.6-1.5-1.4-1.1-0.8-0.5-0.20.10.40.70.91.11.21.21.21.10.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.