Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gulf Shores, AL

FXUS64 KMOB 152001 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 301 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

New Discussion, Marine

DISCUSSION
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Now through Tuesday...

For the current forecast, the biggest item to deal with is a system moving west over the northern Gulf, passing south of the forecast area Wednesday. Heat Indices bumping Heat Advisory levels before and after the passing system are the second item.

Looking at the bigger picture, the aforementioned system moves west on the south side of upper level high pressure situated over the Southeast. A surface low associated with this system passes south of the forecast area Wednesday, with the forecast area coming under stronger southerly flow late Wednesday into Friday. As the system moves over very warm Gulf waters (water temps in the upper 80s over the northern Gulf), it is expected to become a bit better organized.
How much more organized depends on how far south of the disruptive Gulf coast it travels. As of the 1 PM CDT Tuesday issuance from the NHC, a 40% chance of this system becoming a tropical system is being advertised. Guidance is advertising the system become better organized as it begins to move west of the upper ridge (and inland over southern Louisiana). Deep layer flow increases over the northern Gulf coast, pumping Gulf moisture inland, with precipitable h20 values rising above 2.4" over the forecast area and nearby.
MLCapes in the 2000-2500J/kg Wednesday drop into the 1000-1500J/kg range Thursday and Friday, with an uptick in the coming weekend.
With the soupy airmass over the forecast area the end of the week, the expected thunderstorms are expected to be efficient rainers, and with training cells possible, especially over our southern-most tier of counties, water issues may be an issue. WPC has placed our southern tier of counties west of the Florida state line in a slight risk of excessive rain for Friday. Am holding off on any Flood Watch at this time, with the ultimate path of the system this far out a bit hard to pin down.

After this system moves off, upper level high pressure over the Southeast shifts west a bit, but remains in control over the region.
A surface ridge builds west over the northern Gulf, keeping moisture levels high. Daily, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms over land areas of the forecast area are expected, overnight into early morning over our Gulf waters.

Temperatures start well above seasonal averages, take a dip as rain chances increase the end of the week, then bounce back over the weekend into the coming week, especially high temperatures. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s Wednesday drop into the upper 80s to around 90 for Thursday and Friday. High temperatures quickly rebound back into the low to mid 90s by Sunday lasting into the coming week. Heat indices Wednesday bump Heat Advisory levels (108+), with most of the forecast area topping out in the 102-107 degree range. The drop in temperatures with the passing system will drop Heat Indices to around 100 for Thursday and Friday. Heat Indices then rebound back into the 102-107 degree range for Sunday into the coming week. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s north of I-10, mid 70s to near 80 south expected through the forecast.

An increasing tidal cycle along with greater swell on the lee side of the passing surface low will bring a High Risk of rip currents Thursday and Friday /16
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