Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dauphin Island, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:10PM Sunday March 29, 2020 12:26 PM CDT (17:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:57AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ631 Southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 1037 Am Cdt Sun Mar 29 2020
Rest of today..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers late in the morning.
Tonight..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 18 to 23 knots becoming west. Gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots becoming north. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1037 Am Cdt Sun Mar 29 2020
Synopsis..A weak front will slowly move southward today before stalling over the marine area tonight. A brief light offshore flow is expected north of the boundary before transitioning to onshore Monday. By Tuesday, a moderate to strong southwest flow and building seas develops ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. Showers and storms are also expected ahead of and along the front on Tuesday. In the wake of the frontal passage, a moderate to strong offshore flow sets up Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Winds will decrease and seas will subside late Wednesday through Thursday as high pressure builds across the eastern states.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dauphin Island, AL
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location: 30.25, -88.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 291149 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 649 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . Pre-frontal trof of surface low pressure has settled across the area with a skinny band of sprinkles along it. The main front will approach the forecast area mid morning and bring a small chance of shra/perhaps a few tsra mainly over the interior. MVFR cig bases this AM are expected to lift to VFR bases into the afternoon. After a brief period of patchy br this morning, vsby ok by and after 13Z. Wind light. /10

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 405 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/ . Surface analysis shows a deep closed low moving up across the upper Mid-West with an attendant cold front aligned southward over the Lower MS River Valley to off the TX coast. Ahead of the front, the beginning of the shift was active with regard to deep convection to our north with supercells having a history of depositing large hail and producing damaging winds over east-central portions of MS as storms move northeast. Line of storms was now moving across northern AL. The front continues east this morning entering the northwest zones by after daybreak, crossing the I-65 corridor by early this afternoon. There is still a small chance of thunderstorms this morning over the northwest zones. As the best dynamics for convective support lift out, a weakening/decreasing coverage trend is likely to occur with more east to southeast progression. This is supported by current radar trends and high resolution guidance. As the upper trough quickly moves off to the northeast, the front settles south and begins to stall off the northern Gulf coast tonight. Dry conditions will move in behind the front with better rain chances returning in the short term.

Given how weak the front is, don't expect much of a cool down. In fact a few areas mainly southeast of I-65 and perhaps to the coast could see highs today close to or potentially breaking records. Today's highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s northwest of I-65 and along the coast with mid to upper 80s southeast of the interstate. Similar numbers for Monday. Overnight lows mid 50s interior to lower to mid 60s southern zones.

High risk of rip currents will as continue through today. /10/03

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/ . An upper trof over the southern/central Plains advances into the eastern states through Tuesday while an associated surface low near the Red River valley zips quickly eastward across the central Gulf coast states and moves to near the coast of South Carolina by early Tuesday evening. A weak warm front will have formed over the southern portion of the forecast area early Monday evening and lifts slowly northward into central Alabama by early Tuesday morning as the surface low advances into central Mississippi. As the surface low continues eastward, this system brings a cold front through the forecast area late Tuesday morning through the afternoon hours. Ahead of the cold front, a region of deep layer lift shifts eastward across the forecast area beginning early Tuesday morning then shifts east of the area in the afternoon as the upper trof continues further into the eastern states. MLCAPE values increase to near 500 J/kg over much of the area by mid Tuesday morning then increase further to 500-1000 J/kg roughly along and east of I-65 by early Tuesday afternoon while instability diminishes further to the west. The fairly quick movement of the surface low/upper trof results in the best instability shifting east of the area in the afternoon hours. A southwesterly 850 mb flow of 35-40 knots turns westerly Tuesday morning and diminishes through the afternoon and will produce 0-1 km Helicity values of 100-150 m2/s2 through mid morning which then tapers quickly off later in the morning through the early afternoon.

This environment will support the potential for strong to potentially severe storms shifting eastward across much of the area beginning early Tuesday morning and continuing through remainder of the morning hours, potentially lingering into the early afternoon hours over the western Florida panhandle and a portion of south central Alabama before ending. Damaging wind gusts look to be the primary severe threat although can't entirely rule out a brief tornado or large hail instance. The Storm Prediction Center has a Day 2 Marginal Risk over interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama which will mainly occur during the early morning hours on Tuesday. SPC has a Day 3 Marginal to Slight Risk for our area, with the Slight Risk generally over the central and eastern portions of the area which lines up fairly well with where the better instability will be present. Will have pops increasing Monday night to likely/categorical over southeast Mississippi and extreme southwestern Alabama with chance pops further to the east. Have gone with Likely to categorical pops for the entire area Tuesday morning, then chance to likely pops follow for the eastern half of the area early Tuesday afternoon (lesser pops further to the west) before tapering off to dry conditions over the entire area by early Tuesday evening. Lows Monday night range from the lower 60s inland to the upper 60s at the coast. Highs on Tuesday range from the upper 70s well inland to the lower 80s elsewhere. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid to upper 40s well inland to the lower 50s elsewhere. /29

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/ . Cooler and dry conditions are expected Wednesday through Thursday as high pressure builds into and drifts east across the area in the wake of Tuesdays cold frontal passage. The low level ridge axis moves east of the area Friday into Friday night, as another cold front moves toward the area from the west. with this, a moistening return flow likely develops toward the end of the extended period, which could allow POPs to trend upward again Friday into Saturday. We have maintained the low end POPs, mainly isolated showers, to portions of the forecast area Friday through Saturday. As mentioned, a little cooler during the extended period, with daytime highs mainly in the 70s. Nighttime lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s Wednesday night, then mainly in the lower to upper 50s Thursday and Friday nights, maybe even remaining in the lower 60s along the immediate coast each of those nights. /12

MARINE . A weak front settles southward and stalls over the marine area tonight. A brief light offshore flow expected north of the boundary before transitioning to onshore Monday. By Tuesday, a moderate to strong southwest flow and building seas develops ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. Showers and storms are also expected ahead of and along the front on Tuesday. In the wake of the frontal passage, a moderate offshore flow sets up Tuesday night. High pressure builds east, north of the marine area Wednesday and Thursday. Winds to show a decreasing trend and seas subside late in the period. /10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 0 mi87 min SSW 8.9 G 11 78°F 1020 hPa (+1.3)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 3 mi63 min SW 11 G 12 78°F 1020.1 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 5 mi177 min SSW 9.9 77°F 1020 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 18 mi102 min 80°F 1020 hPa74°F
WBYA1 18 mi57 min 79°F
MBPA1 19 mi57 min 79°F 69°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 20 mi102 min N 6 73°F 1022 hPa63°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 23 mi57 min NW 1.9 G 5.1 76°F 1020 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 27 mi63 min 75°F
PPTA1 28 mi177 min 79°F 1020.7 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 28 mi57 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 82°F 76°F1020.1 hPa
PTOA1 29 mi57 min 79°F 64°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 30 mi177 min S 4.1 73°F 1019.3 hPa
42067 - USM3M02 30 mi87 min SSW 9.7 G 12 75°F 3 ft1020 hPa (+1.7)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 31 mi37 min SSW 7.8 G 12 77°F 78°F3 ft1020.5 hPa75°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 32 mi57 min 84°F 69°F1019.9 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 47 mi57 min S 6 G 8.9 78°F 77°F1020.5 hPa

Wind History for Dauphin Island, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL18 mi52 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F71°F74%1020 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL22 mi52 minSSW 8 G 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F72°F75%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCQF

Wind History from CQF (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Dauphin Island, Alabama
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Dauphin Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:21 AM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:49 PM CDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.30.40.60.70.811.11.11.11.110.90.70.60.40.20.1-0

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:45 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:10 AM CDT     1.27 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:56 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:24 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:51 PM CDT     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.