Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dauphin Island, AL

FXUS64 KMOB 182002 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 302 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

New Discussion, Marine

DISCUSSION
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Near Term (Now through Saturday night)
Through Saturday night, a large positively tilted upper trof stretching from the northern Plains to the 4 Corners region advances slowly eastward then splits, with the northern portion moving off across eastern Canada while the remainder moves into the southern and central Plains. An upper ridge over the southeastern states (and stretching up along the mid Atlantic Coast) meanwhile slowly begins to move off into the western Atlantic, while a surface ridge remains in place over the southeastern states and promotes a light southeasterly flow. Deep layer moisture looks to remain too limited to support precipitation and have continued with a dry forecast through Saturday night. Patchy to areas of fog is favored to develop overnight, and may develop Saturday night as well. There is a low risk of rip currents tonight and a moderate risk of rip currents for Saturday. A High Risk of rip currents begins Saturday night and through Monday night. /29

Extended (Sunday through Friday)
Upper level high pressure centered off the Florida Atlantic coast with a ridge stretching north over the East Coast will hang tough into Monday, then begin to tilt anticyclonically as a series of shortwave troughs move over the Central/Southern Plains. By Thursday, the upper pattern has transformed into zonal upper flow over the Southeast, with a series of shortwave troughs passing over the Southeast. A surface cold front moves to areas northwest of the forecast area as a closes upper system exits a mean upper trough over the Plains Sunday into Monday. This front becomes the focus for rainfall in the coming week. Another shortwave passing Tuesday shifts the surface front a bit further southeast, closer to the forecast area. Will need to monitor where this boundary moves in the coming week, with isentropic upglide heavy rain a possibility with the Tuesday system and another passing Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance is painting precipitable h20 levels rising into the 1.5"-1.6" range in areas near or over the forecast area (generally west of I-65), and MLCapes rising to around 1000j/kg, enough for localized heavy rain, maybe more extensive if the surface front is re-enforced.

Temperatures remain at or above seasonal norms Sunday for the coming week. High temperatures range from the upper 70s near the coast to low to mid 80s well inland are expected for the period, with some shifting of where the lower temperatures end up. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s expected for most of the period.

A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected Sunday into midweek with onshore flow continuing to bring swell to area beaches. A wide tidal range this weekend will slowly decrease in the coming week, with the Rip Current Risk easing to a Moderate by the end of the week.
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