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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 311 Am Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 311 Am Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis..A moderate northerly flow will persist through today as a high pressure ridge drifts east across the marine area. Southeasterly to southerly flow will return and gradually increase late this week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the next cold front approaches from the west.

FXUS64 KMOB 290953 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 353 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

A dry pattern continues through Thursday as sfc high pressure slides east across the area. The high will move east of the area late this evening with a light southerly flow developing. A zonal flow will become southwesterly tonight into Thursday as a shortwave moves into the four corners and into the southern plains on Thursday. Skies will start today clear with increasing clouds this afternoon and tonight as moisture levels increase. Isolated showers will move into the western areas Thursday afternoon as the shortwave ejects northeast with an associated sfc low and trailing cold front moving east. Highs today will be in the upper 50s to around 60. Lows tonight will be in the low 30s inland to mid 40s near the coast. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 60s inland to mid/upper 60s across the southern third of the area. /13

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

A wet period commences Thursday night and persists into the weekend. The first round will come via a shortwave over Texas that will quickly move northeast into the Midwest Friday morning in strong southwest flow aloft. An attendant surface low will follow the same track and bring a warm front through our area overnight Thursday into early Friday morning. The combination of strengthening warm air advection and overall increased synoptic lift will result in rain spreading into the region from west to east, with light rain likely moving into the western zones by Thursday evening. Potentially heavier rain will move in late in the night into Friday morning as PWATs increase to 1.75" and weak instability moves into the area as we become warm sectored.
Therefore, cannot rule out a few thunderstorms by Friday morning.
Given strong deep layer shear and a warm front to start out the day on Friday, cannot completely rule out a strong or isolated severe storm. However, guidance is indicating that instability will be very weak at best and deep layer profiles will be very saturated. In addition, the aforementioned shortwave will quickly become further removed from the area as Friday progresses, with wind fields and synoptic lift weakening with time. This will further limit the severe threat and also likely result in a break in the rain over much of the area by Friday afternoon/early Friday evening.

However, the next round of rain will be quickly on the heels of the first. A front will stall near our region in the wake of the first storm system and serve as a focus for renewed development of showers and a few thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday.
This will be in response to a 130+ kt upper jet that strengthens from Texas into the Midwest in advance of the next shortwave moving east across the southern Plains. This will likely be the time period with the best chance of locally heavy rainfall as PWATs increase to near 2" and storms will have a tendency to train given the deep layer southwest flow.

The heaviest rain will likely shift east of the region Saturday night as guidance continues to become more progressive with the large scale trough and associated front. In fact, most guidance shows mostly dry conditions by Sunday afternoon/night. We have continued the trend of reducing rain chances Sunday afternoon into Monday, with Monday mostly dry with this forecast.

Average storm total rainfall amounts are currently expected to be in the 2-4" range for much of the area. Ensemble probabilities for greater than 4" have significantly dropped on the Euro ensembles, but are still in the 20-40% range on the GEFS. Given this, along with the overall deep layer southwest flow pattern, a few locations could see a bit higher than 4", especially if deeper convection trains on Saturday. This overall will be a very beneficial rainfall, but localized flooding in urban and poor drainage areas cannot be ruled out.

Mild temperatures and humid conditions for the end of the week into the weekend will trend back to near normal and less humid by the beginning of next week in the wake of the frontal passage.
34/JFB

MARINE
Issued at 352 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

A moderate northerly flow will persist through today as a high pressure ridge drifts east across the marine area. Southeasterly to southerly flow will return and gradually increase late this week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the next cold front approaches from the west. /13

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>264.

FL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST this morning for FLZ201-203-205.

MS...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...None.

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Dauphin Island, Mobile Bay, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile Bay Entrance
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Wed -- 05:22 AM CST     -2.81 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:50 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:45 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:51 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:19 PM CST     2.65 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:49 PM CST     Moonrise
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Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots

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