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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 804 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning in effect from noon cst today through this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Monday morning...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming west with gusts up to 30 knots early this afternoon, then becoming northwest 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots late. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds, building to 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds this afternoon. Protected waters very rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Tonight..Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots, becoming north 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds, subsiding to 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds after midnight. Protected waters very rough. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters rough.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters rough.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters rough.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters rough.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Protected waters rough. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Protected waters very rough. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 904 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
currently, there is a line of Thunderstorms moving across the gulf. These storms are capable of strong gusty winds and waterspouts, as well as lightning and small hail. The storms will move eastward through the day and be followed by a strong cold front.
a strong cold front will sweep across the waters today with winds clocking around to the northwest in its wake by tonight. A rapid onset of gale-force northwest wind gusts is expected this afternoon and evening across the coastal waters in the wake of the cold front. A gale warning is now in effect for all coastal waters. Gales will subside later tonight with winds remaining around 20 knots into early Monday afternoon. Offshore wave heights will increase this afternoon and peak around 5 to 8 feet tonight into Monday. Winds will clock around to the northeast by Tuesday, as high pressure settles over the mid- atlantic, with speeds continuing in the 15 to 20 knot range. While there is uncertainty in the forecast for Wednesday and beyond, winds may increase further to around 20 to 25 knots, especially if low pressure develops south of the waters.

FXUS62 KTAE 101741 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1241 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected today ahead of and along an approaching strong cold front. Dew points have trended warmer than previous forecast this morning, supporting perhaps more instability than previously forecast.
Large scale lift remains in place along with moderate low level wind shear, leading to a marginal risk for severe weather. The primary threat for storms today are damaging winds, a few tornadoes, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected, with isolated higher amounts near 3 to 4 inches possible. While widespread flooding is not expected, these higher totals in urban or already saturated areas may cause some minor flooding issues. The main line of storms is forecast to enter our western zones a few hours before sunrise and push eastward through the area today, eventually exiting the area by this evening. Severe weather and locally heavy rainfall will remain possible all day.

Much cooler and drier air will push into the region after the front with breezy northwest winds.

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Fairly cold and dry conditions are expected to start out the period with surface high pressure to the north keeping northeasterly winds parked over the area. A very gradual warming and moistening trend is expected through the week. Rain chances are forecast to increase again heading into the weekend as another Gulf low tries to develop to the southwest. It's too early to pin down the details of this system at this point.

LONG TERM

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the TLH and VLD terminals for the next few hours. A mix of IFR/MVFR conditions expected at all terminals this afternoon, and will slowly lift to MVFR around 00z and to VFR overnight. Winds will shift northwesterly behind the front this afternoon and will be gusting around 20 to 30 kts during the evening hours. The gusts should calm down around between 06z and 12z Monday morning. VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the rest of the term Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 902 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Currently, there is a line of thunderstorms moving across the Gulf. These storms are capable of strong gusty winds and waterspouts, as well as lightning and small hail. The storms will move eastward through the day and be followed by a strong cold front.

A strong cold front will sweep across the waters today with winds clocking around to the northwest in its wake by tonight. A rapid onset of gale-force northwest wind gusts is expected this afternoon and evening across the coastal waters in the wake of the cold front. A gale warning is now in effect for all coastal waters. Gales will subside later tonight with winds remaining around 20 knots into early Monday afternoon. Offshore wave heights will increase this afternoon and peak around 5 to 8 feet tonight into Monday. Winds will clock around to the northeast by Tuesday, as high pressure settles over the mid- Atlantic, with speeds continuing in the 15 to 20 knot range. While there is uncertainty in the forecast for Wednesday and beyond, winds may increase further to around 20 to 25 knots, especially if low pressure develops south of the waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A strong cold front is forecast to push across the area today with breezy northwest winds in its wake. Given recent rainfall and expected additional rainfall with this front today, there are no fire weather concerns for the next few days.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to push across the area today ahead of a strong cold front. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be possible with isolated higher amounts near 3 to 4 inches. While widespread flooding is not expected, a few spots of minor flooding may be possible if the higher totals end up over already saturated areas from the last event. Higher totals could also create further rises on area rivers.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 38 56 36 59 / 30 0 0 0 Panama City 39 57 39 59 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 34 54 33 56 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 35 54 32 57 / 30 0 0 0 Valdosta 37 56 35 59 / 70 0 0 0 Cross City 40 59 38 65 / 90 0 0 0 Apalachicola 40 57 43 59 / 10 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Monday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ750-752-770-772.

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Lynn Haven
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Sun -- 04:05 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:18 AM CST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:49 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:42 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:35 PM CST     1.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Panama City
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Sun -- 04:05 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:14 AM CST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:27 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:50 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:42 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:58 PM CST     1.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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