Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Miramar Beach, FL

NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM
(Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Satellite-derived PW imagery shows an area of very moist air from the Florida Keys into the Southeast Gulf and off the SW FL coast, characterized by PW values of 2-2.2 inches. The 12z Key West balloon sounding confirmed this by observing a 2.1-inch PW. In the southerly flow rounding the west end of the Atlantic subtropical ridge, this slug of moisture will spread northward across our area on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday, before departing on Saturday evening. Large-scale lift could be slightly enhanced as the upper trough over Texas slowly lifts northeast across the Mid-South and Mid-Mississippi Valley regions.
Ultimately, the pool of rich moisture will enhance convective coverage through Saturday. Such a richly moist air mass can contribute to torrential rainfall rates beneath the core of thunderstorms. Ensemble-based guidance such as the HRRR does not point to abnormally high probabilities of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance, but any training or backbuilding cells in this environment could bring a quick and localized 4-6 inches of rain, which would be enough for isolated flash flooding.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

On Sunday, we will lose any large-scale lift from the Mid-South shortwave, as it deamplifies and exits east through the Ohio Valley. The air mass will still be very moist as high Pwats and mid-level moisture linger near the back edge of the incoming slug.

From Monday through Wednesday, the subtropical ridge axis will try to sharpen near our latitude and strengthen along its western periphery closer to Florida. Around the southern periphery of the climatological and dominant ridge, dry mid-level air that is currently north and northeast of Puerto Rico will start to filter in across the region. By Wednesday, PW values will only be in the 1.6-1.7 inch range. This is still enough to support deep, moist convection, but larger-scale subsidence under the ridge will keep convection confined to more favorable seabreeze front locations.

With fewer thunderstorms to cool the atmosphere and strengthening high pressure aloft, temperatures will edge upward next week. By next Thursday, inland high temperatures in the mid 90s will be common.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected for TLH, VLD, and ECP for much of the night. However, MVFR cigs are expected to develop for DHN and ABY around 10-14z. Some patchy MVFR cigs are possible elsewhere, but coverage is not anticipated to be enough to introduce categorical changes. Another round of SHRA/TSRA is expected tomorrow, generally moving northward through the terminals during the late morning and afternoon. VCTS prevailing groups continue with PROB30s for TSRA with refinements to come in later TAF issuances.
Winds generally will be out of the southeast to south at 5-10 kt.

MARINE
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Gentle to sometimes moderate southeast breezes will prevail through Saturday, while the subtropical Atlantic ridge axis resides north of the waters. The ridge will migrate south across the waters on Sunday, then persist across the Florida Peninsula and the eastern Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be the main threats to mariners, including strong wind gusts, lightning and waterspouts.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A seasonably hot, moist and unstable air mass will be in place through the middle of next week, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. So the main fire weather concerns will be thundertorm-related, specifically lightning along with erratic and gusty winds near storms.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Hydrology concerns over the next 7 days will consist of localized nuisance runoff issues and isolated flash flooding.

A typical pattern of summer thunderstorms will persist for the next week. Beneath the core of stronger thunderstorms, intense rainfall rates have potential for localized runoff issues, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. With torrential rain rates, storms that linger over the same area for too long would bring isolated flash flooding. Lastly, the air mass will be moistest on Friday and Saturday, so rain rates and flash flood potential will peak then.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 88 74 87 74 / 60 30 90 20 Panama City 88 77 88 77 / 30 60 80 50 Dothan 90 73 87 73 / 50 30 80 20 Albany 90 72 87 73 / 60 40 80 20 Valdosta 90 74 89 73 / 60 30 80 20 Cross City 90 72 89 72 / 50 40 80 30 Apalachicola 86 77 85 78 / 40 60 90 50

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.