Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Miramar Beach, FL
December 2, 2023 4:29 PM CST (22:29 UTC)
Sunrise 6:25AM Sunset 4:46PM Moonrise 10:37PM Moonset 11:59AM
GMZ636 Expires:202312031015;;788516 Fzus54 Kmob 022107 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 307 pm cst Sat dec 2 2023
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height...which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-031015- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 307 pm cst Sat dec 2 2023
Tonight..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms early this evening. Showers. Patchy fog late this evening and overnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..East winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 307 pm cst Sat dec 2 2023
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height...which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-031015- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 307 pm cst Sat dec 2 2023
Tonight..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms early this evening. Showers. Patchy fog late this evening and overnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..East winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 307 Pm Cst Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis..Moderate southeast to southerly flow persists into Sunday. A light to moderate offshore flow becomes established Sunday night into early next week in the wake of a cold front.
Synopsis..Moderate southeast to southerly flow persists into Sunday. A light to moderate offshore flow becomes established Sunday night into early next week in the wake of a cold front.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 022102 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INTO TONIGHT...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
Heavy rainfall threat continues through Sunday morning with much of the region in a SLGT risk for excessive rainfall. In particular, the FL and southern tier of GA counties will be most at risk, with additional flooding is possible. A Flood Watch remains in effect for these areas, including Southeast Alabama. If the focus of the heavy rainfall remains in the aforementioned FL/GA areas, we will reassess the Flood Watch for Southeast Alabama tonight. There is still a limited potential for severe weather, mainly from the eastern FL Big Bend (closer to the Suwanee Valley) and along the coastal areas. In particular, the warm front has cleared Cross City, where there is surface based instability. Given large deep layer shear and clockwise low-level hodographs, isolated damaging wind and a tornado is possible, mainly coastal Big Bend and closer to the Suwanee Valley. We also expect advection fog to develop in Apalachee Bay this evening/early tonight and spread northward into the adjacent FL Big Bend and perhaps Southwest Georgia. Current forecast reflects patchy to areas of fog. We cannot rule out dense fog, prior to the cold front mixing out the air mass Sunday morning. Improving weather is expected Sunday afternoon. Temps will hold nearly steady or fall slightly overnight, with lows in the 60s. Highs on Sunday mainly in the 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
Drier air will be filtering in on W-NW low-level flow on Sunday night. Patchy fog is possible over Dixie County near sunrise Monday, where the dry air may arrive too late to prevent a little fog.
A broad longwave trough over the eastern U.S. will open the door to a dry secondary reinforcing cold frontal passage on Monday.
Even drier air will filter in behind this front on Monday PM.
Winds will decouple under clear skies on Monday night, bringing effective radiational cooling. Have already undercut NBM over the Big Bend region with lows on Monday night, but MOS suggests it could be even cooler yet.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
Cool and dry weather will prevail from Tuesday through Thursday.
One last dry reinforcing cold front will swing through on Wednesday, bringing a strengthening of low-level northerly flow.
A large surface high pressure center will be over the Southern Plains on Tuesday. It will move directly across the service area on Thursday PM.
It will move off the northeast Florida coast on Friday, but a trailing ridge axis will still extend back across North Florida.
This will keep the initial return of southeast/south flow on the weak side. The air mass will start to transition away from continental polar on Friday, but it will be a much slower transition than we had in recent days.
The next large upper trough will move across the Southern U.S.
Rockies next weekend, and our upper flow will become south of west. Models are in good agreement on the development of this system, but there are large timing differences with how soon or quickly this system will eject east across the Southern Plains.
As a result, rain chances will only incrementally increase over the course of next Saturday and Saturday night, mainly to account for the faster solutions.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
Multiple rounds of rain with embedded thunder will move across the terminals through Sunday morning. Greatest chance of thunder will be at ECP and TLH. Cigs are expected to lower into IFR/LIFR this evening, but there is uncertainty on timing with potential for VFR cigs at times as well. Greater confidence in a more solid period of IFR/LIFR cigs overnight. Vsbys are expected to lower further in fog, mainly at TLH and VLD. There is uncertainty in the duration of fog as winds begin to increase ahead of a cold front. For now, have a TEMPO group at the aforementioned sites early Sunday morning for vsby down to 1SM. Cigs are expected to increase after sunrise to IFR/MVFR, at least temporarily, with highest confidence at TLH/VLD. Easterly winds will gradually clock around to the west on Sunday morning as a cold front moves through the region, with gusts up 20 kts at ABY, DHN, and ECP.
MARINE
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
Satellite imagery shows sea fog off the Nature Coast this afternoon, spreading north into the eastern half of Apalachee Bay.
This will be an issue for mariners until west winds kick in on Sunday.
From CWF synopsis...A slow-moving cold front will move from the Louisiana coastal waters this afternoon to the northeast Gulf waters late Sunday. It will be followed by a turn to moderate west and northwest breezes. A reinforcing front on Monday will bring a turn to northerly breezes. A strong high pressure center will move from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday, causing northerly breezes to persist. The high pressure center will move across the northeast Gulf late Thursday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
Soaking rains are possible into Sunday morning with flooding possible, then a drying trend as a cold front moves through the region. Pockets of low dispersion are possible on Sunday. Dry weather is then on tap on Monday and Tuesday with brisk westerly transport winds and a return to at least moderate dispersions.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
A large area received 3 to 5 inches of rain today, roughly along and south of a line from Panama City to Blountstown to Thomasville, then southward to the Forgotten Coast. Peak values of 6+ inches were observed from Lake Talquin across parts of northern Leon County.
Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is forecast through this evening in these same areas. It will not take much additional rainfall to exacerbate runoff issues.
Now that water is on the ground, where will it go? Observed rainfall has pushed the river forecast into minor flood for the Saint Marks at Newport and the Aucilla at Lamont. We are in the middle of assessing the Sopchoppy basin, where 5-6 inches of rain was common and could cause flooding. Bear Creek in Bay County is rising quickly through action stage right now. For now, we have issued a Flood Warning for the Saint Marks at Newport, and additional river flood warnings are likely to come in the next 24 hours.
Rain should start to taper off after this evening, with only light amounts forecast for Sunday. We may eventually be able to cancel the Flood Watch before its current expiration late Sunday afternoon. Expect to see some spatial and temporal trimming of the watch as soon as late this evening.
Dry weather is forecast from Monday through Friday. The next hydrologically significant rain should hold off until beyond the 7-day forecast.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 67 75 58 71 / 70 70 10 0 Panama City 66 74 58 70 / 90 70 10 0 Dothan 65 72 51 66 / 90 50 10 0 Albany 65 72 51 66 / 90 70 10 0 Valdosta 67 75 57 70 / 70 80 20 0 Cross City 67 78 62 73 / 30 60 20 10 Apalachicola 66 73 60 69 / 70 70 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for FLZ007>019-026-027-108- 112-114.
High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114.
High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ115.
GA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for GAZ155>160.
AL...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ALZ065>069.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INTO TONIGHT...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
Heavy rainfall threat continues through Sunday morning with much of the region in a SLGT risk for excessive rainfall. In particular, the FL and southern tier of GA counties will be most at risk, with additional flooding is possible. A Flood Watch remains in effect for these areas, including Southeast Alabama. If the focus of the heavy rainfall remains in the aforementioned FL/GA areas, we will reassess the Flood Watch for Southeast Alabama tonight. There is still a limited potential for severe weather, mainly from the eastern FL Big Bend (closer to the Suwanee Valley) and along the coastal areas. In particular, the warm front has cleared Cross City, where there is surface based instability. Given large deep layer shear and clockwise low-level hodographs, isolated damaging wind and a tornado is possible, mainly coastal Big Bend and closer to the Suwanee Valley. We also expect advection fog to develop in Apalachee Bay this evening/early tonight and spread northward into the adjacent FL Big Bend and perhaps Southwest Georgia. Current forecast reflects patchy to areas of fog. We cannot rule out dense fog, prior to the cold front mixing out the air mass Sunday morning. Improving weather is expected Sunday afternoon. Temps will hold nearly steady or fall slightly overnight, with lows in the 60s. Highs on Sunday mainly in the 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
Drier air will be filtering in on W-NW low-level flow on Sunday night. Patchy fog is possible over Dixie County near sunrise Monday, where the dry air may arrive too late to prevent a little fog.
A broad longwave trough over the eastern U.S. will open the door to a dry secondary reinforcing cold frontal passage on Monday.
Even drier air will filter in behind this front on Monday PM.
Winds will decouple under clear skies on Monday night, bringing effective radiational cooling. Have already undercut NBM over the Big Bend region with lows on Monday night, but MOS suggests it could be even cooler yet.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
Cool and dry weather will prevail from Tuesday through Thursday.
One last dry reinforcing cold front will swing through on Wednesday, bringing a strengthening of low-level northerly flow.
A large surface high pressure center will be over the Southern Plains on Tuesday. It will move directly across the service area on Thursday PM.
It will move off the northeast Florida coast on Friday, but a trailing ridge axis will still extend back across North Florida.
This will keep the initial return of southeast/south flow on the weak side. The air mass will start to transition away from continental polar on Friday, but it will be a much slower transition than we had in recent days.
The next large upper trough will move across the Southern U.S.
Rockies next weekend, and our upper flow will become south of west. Models are in good agreement on the development of this system, but there are large timing differences with how soon or quickly this system will eject east across the Southern Plains.
As a result, rain chances will only incrementally increase over the course of next Saturday and Saturday night, mainly to account for the faster solutions.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
Multiple rounds of rain with embedded thunder will move across the terminals through Sunday morning. Greatest chance of thunder will be at ECP and TLH. Cigs are expected to lower into IFR/LIFR this evening, but there is uncertainty on timing with potential for VFR cigs at times as well. Greater confidence in a more solid period of IFR/LIFR cigs overnight. Vsbys are expected to lower further in fog, mainly at TLH and VLD. There is uncertainty in the duration of fog as winds begin to increase ahead of a cold front. For now, have a TEMPO group at the aforementioned sites early Sunday morning for vsby down to 1SM. Cigs are expected to increase after sunrise to IFR/MVFR, at least temporarily, with highest confidence at TLH/VLD. Easterly winds will gradually clock around to the west on Sunday morning as a cold front moves through the region, with gusts up 20 kts at ABY, DHN, and ECP.
MARINE
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
Satellite imagery shows sea fog off the Nature Coast this afternoon, spreading north into the eastern half of Apalachee Bay.
This will be an issue for mariners until west winds kick in on Sunday.
From CWF synopsis...A slow-moving cold front will move from the Louisiana coastal waters this afternoon to the northeast Gulf waters late Sunday. It will be followed by a turn to moderate west and northwest breezes. A reinforcing front on Monday will bring a turn to northerly breezes. A strong high pressure center will move from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday, causing northerly breezes to persist. The high pressure center will move across the northeast Gulf late Thursday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
Soaking rains are possible into Sunday morning with flooding possible, then a drying trend as a cold front moves through the region. Pockets of low dispersion are possible on Sunday. Dry weather is then on tap on Monday and Tuesday with brisk westerly transport winds and a return to at least moderate dispersions.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
A large area received 3 to 5 inches of rain today, roughly along and south of a line from Panama City to Blountstown to Thomasville, then southward to the Forgotten Coast. Peak values of 6+ inches were observed from Lake Talquin across parts of northern Leon County.
Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is forecast through this evening in these same areas. It will not take much additional rainfall to exacerbate runoff issues.
Now that water is on the ground, where will it go? Observed rainfall has pushed the river forecast into minor flood for the Saint Marks at Newport and the Aucilla at Lamont. We are in the middle of assessing the Sopchoppy basin, where 5-6 inches of rain was common and could cause flooding. Bear Creek in Bay County is rising quickly through action stage right now. For now, we have issued a Flood Warning for the Saint Marks at Newport, and additional river flood warnings are likely to come in the next 24 hours.
Rain should start to taper off after this evening, with only light amounts forecast for Sunday. We may eventually be able to cancel the Flood Watch before its current expiration late Sunday afternoon. Expect to see some spatial and temporal trimming of the watch as soon as late this evening.
Dry weather is forecast from Monday through Friday. The next hydrologically significant rain should hold off until beyond the 7-day forecast.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 67 75 58 71 / 70 70 10 0 Panama City 66 74 58 70 / 90 70 10 0 Dothan 65 72 51 66 / 90 50 10 0 Albany 65 72 51 66 / 90 70 10 0 Valdosta 67 75 57 70 / 70 80 20 0 Cross City 67 78 62 73 / 30 60 20 10 Apalachicola 66 73 60 69 / 70 70 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for FLZ007>019-026-027-108- 112-114.
High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114.
High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ115.
GA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for GAZ155>160.
AL...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ALZ065>069.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PCBF1 | 16 mi | 60 min | ESE 9.9G | 67°F | 65°F | 29.90 | ||
| PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL | 28 mi | 60 min | ENE 8.9G | 63°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDTS DESTIN EXECUTIVE,FL | 18 sm | 36 min | SE 12G22 | 5 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 70°F | 66°F | 88% | 29.91 |
| KECP NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTL,FL | 20 sm | 14 min | calm | 5 sm | Overcast | Thunderstorm Rain Mist | 68°F | 66°F | 94% | 29.94 |
| KVPS EGLIN AFB/DESTINFT WALTON BEACH,FL | 23 sm | 34 min | ESE 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 68°F | 66°F | 94% | 29.90 |
Wind History from DTS
(wind in knots)Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:22 AM CST Sunrise
Sat -- 09:39 AM CST -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:57 AM CST Moonset
Sat -- 04:42 PM CST Sunset
Sat -- 09:36 PM CST Moonrise
Sat -- 10:52 PM CST 1.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:22 AM CST Sunrise
Sat -- 09:39 AM CST -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:57 AM CST Moonset
Sat -- 04:42 PM CST Sunset
Sat -- 09:36 PM CST Moonrise
Sat -- 10:52 PM CST 1.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.4 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| -0 |
| 8 am |
| -0.1 |
| 9 am |
| -0.2 |
| 10 am |
| -0.2 |
| 11 am |
| -0.2 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:34 AM CST 1.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:23 AM CST Sunrise
Sat -- 10:57 AM CST Moonset
Sat -- 02:09 PM CST -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:42 PM CST Sunset
Sat -- 09:35 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:34 AM CST 1.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:23 AM CST Sunrise
Sat -- 10:57 AM CST Moonset
Sat -- 02:09 PM CST -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:42 PM CST Sunset
Sat -- 09:35 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.1 |
| 11 am |
| -0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Northwest Florida,
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