Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Miramar Beach, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 824 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

No updates to the forecast tonight. Ongoing showers and storms will diminish slowly through the next few hours. The lone exception could be along residual outflow boundaries from earlier storms. Isolated activity along these boundaries could continue through the next few hours before diminishing after midnight.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are about to get underway across the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor as the Apalachee Bay sea breeze moves inland and will later collide with the East Coast sea breeze late this afternoon. There is plenty of instability to work with as temperatures climb into the 90s with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. Additionally there is ample DCAPE this afternoon around 1000 J/kg. Thus, some thunderstorms this afternoon will be capable of strong downbursts, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and maybe some hail. The Storm Prediction Center has the I-75 corridor and Suwannee Valley outlined in a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5). Elsewhere, it will just be a warm and humid day. Showers and storms will gradually fade during the evening, though we may see an outflow boundary develop from the these storms that moves westward late evening, producing a brief period of easterly gusts around 15-25 mph and a few showers. Late tonight into Monday morning, some patchy fog may develop in areas where winds go light to calm overnight. Lows will be quite warm in the mid 60s to low 70s.

For Monday, some drier air begins to move in from the east, which will shove our rain chances more toward the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama along the Emerald Coast seabreeze. There will yet again be ample instability and DCAPE for gusty winds with thunderstorms. Otherwise, it will be another hot day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Anomalously strong ridging builds over the eastern US, and some drier air moves over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This will lead to lower rain chances again with hotter temperatures. Tuesday through Thursday will be the hottest days of the week with widespread 90s. The FL Big Bend has a low (10-30%) chance of highs at or above 95 Tuesday and Wednesday. Across the FL counties, where it will be more humid, heat index values could approach 100 in isolated spots. This level of heat could affect those who are sensitive to heat and those who do not have access to adequate cooling or hydration.

The ridge begins to flatten somewhat next week as troughing over the western US tries to move eastward. Moisture will also begin to increase again late in the week into the holiday weekend. The summer- like forecast resumes again with it being hot and humid with increasing chances of afternoon pop-up storms.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 824 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail overnight but patchy fog can't be ruled out, especially at ABY/VLD where rainfall was received this afternoon. Lower rain chances are expected for Monday so any TSRA activity is not currently mentioned in the TAFs, but if we get any storm activity, it's likely to be across ECP/DHN.

MARINE
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail through the next several days. Easterly nocturnal surges are possible each night through mid-week, with the strongest surges possible tonight and Monday night where winds could briefly reach cautionary levels, especially if outflow boundaries from storms on land move over the waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

High dispersions are expected on Monday across the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor as mixing heights climb to near 7,000 feet with easterly transport winds around 10 mph. Elsewhere, winds will be more southerly to southeasterly, but mixing heights will be lower, yielding good dispersions. Scattered showers and storms are possible Monday afternoon in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Lighter transport winds out of the east to southeast are expected Tuesday, then more variable Wednesday. Dispersions both days will be good area wide. Isolated showers and storms will be possible both afternoons as the sea breeze advances inland.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected.

Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 70 91 70 91 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 71 86 70 87 / 0 10 0 10 Dothan 66 88 67 89 / 10 20 0 10 Albany 67 89 66 89 / 30 0 0 0 Valdosta 66 91 66 91 / 50 0 0 10 Cross City 68 94 68 94 / 30 0 0 30 Apalachicola 74 82 73 84 / 0 10 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.