Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Miramar Beach, FL
May 17, 2024 12:42 PM CDT (17:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 2:26 PM Moonset 2:35 AM |
GMZ655 Expires:202405172215;;369510 Fzus54 Kmob 171423 Aaa Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 930 am cdt Fri may 17 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz650-655-172215- coastal waters from pensacola fl to pascagoula ms out 20 nm- coastal waters from okaloosa walton county line fl to pensacola fl out 20 nm- 930 am cdt Fri may 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm cdt this afternoon - .
Today - Southeast winds 20 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 5 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 3 feet at 4 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms early this morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning and early afternoon.
Tonight - South winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Thunderstorms likely. Showers.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas around 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
Sunday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds.
Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds.
Monday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds.
Monday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds.
Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 930 am cdt Fri may 17 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz650-655-172215- coastal waters from pensacola fl to pascagoula ms out 20 nm- coastal waters from okaloosa walton county line fl to pensacola fl out 20 nm- 930 am cdt Fri may 17 2024
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 930 Am Cdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis - Moderate to strong southerly winds along with building seas will occur today ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring additional showers and Thunderstorms to the marine area tonight through Saturday. A light offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 171603 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1203 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
New NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
The main concern through Saturday will be severe thunderstorms and heavy rain.
In the big picture, a positively tilted southern stream upper trough has moved east to Texas, ramping up west-southwesterly jet stream winds along the northern Gulf Coast. A turn to southerly low-level flow has brought a return of low-level moisture as a warm front tries to creep northward and inland.
Earlier this morning, a leading MCS raced east across the northeast Gulf, with the southern tip of the Forgotten Coast near Apalachicola getting severe thunderstorm winds, with a measured gust to 84 mph near the Cape in Gulf County. This MCS has now exited off to the east, with a temporarily rain-stabilized air mass over most of the forecast area late this morning. However, fully sunny skies over the eastern Panhandle should allow mid-day mid-May sunshine to quickly destabilize the air mass once more.
Already, a broken east-west band of thunderstorms is ongoing across the southern half of Alabama into west-central Georgia. It should take on a more positive tilt this afternoon and start to slowly move southeast through this evening, affecting most of the service area except perhaps the Forgotten Coast and southeast Big Bend. Given the slow movement of this line, a quick couple inches of rain should occur in spots. Gusty winds will also be a threat with thunderstorms.
Looking upstream, a shortwave trough currently south of El Paso TX will race east this afternoon, sparking development of a new MCS late this evening off the Texas and Louisiana coasts. It will continue to race east overnight near the northern Gulf Coast, pushing across the tri- state region on Saturday morning. Assuming this takes on a classic MCS structure and tracks more onshore than over the Gulf waters, then fairly widespread severe wind gusts would be possible, with isolated convective gusts in excess of 70 mph.
As is common with an exiting MCS, would not be surprised to see a significant lull in activity develop sometime in the afternoon or evening in the rain-stabilized air that follows.
SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Uncertainty remains high through the short period as a lot of what happens in this period, especially through the day on Saturday, will depend on how convection evolves through Friday and overnight into Saturday morning to our west. Elevated southwesterly flow will be firmly entrenched over the forecast area into Saturday as the next, possibly last, shortwave in the southwesterly flow will be approaching by daybreak. The timing of this wave will help determine how far west favorable forcing and instability develop through the morning and afternoon hours.
Further complicating matters will be the eastward progression of a potential MCS (organized complex of storms) in the morning.
Should this MCS plow through quickly ahead of the upper level shortwave, it is possible this could lower severe probs for our afternoon severe threat. With a slower shortwave/MCS and sufficient shear of 40 to 50 knots in place, we will likely realize some severe potential amongst the relatively large mid- level lapse rates and modest instability. More organized storms in this environment will likely bring a greater wind potential. With the steeper lapse rates, large hail is also possible, but confidence is lower in that threat materializing. A brief tornado can't be ruled out either but with low-level shear fairly low and very weak turning in the low-level hodographs, the damaging wind and hail threat will be the main hazards folks this weekend need to be monitoring.
Widespread showers, in addition to scattered severe storms, continue into the evening hours but a general downtrend in severe weather should begin to develop as the forcing moves east and instability wanes. However, with one last shortwave passage left, isolated severe storms remain possible overnight Saturday into early Sunday.
The trough pushes through Sunday with cooler temperatures aloft moving in. While the severe threat will be noticeably lower and east compared to Saturday's event, our GA counties along the I-75 corridor and down into the southeast Big Bend could see strong, possibly severe, storms given the favorable temperatures aloft and remnant instability.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Upper level ridge settles in as the trough from the weekend moves out. A quieter and drier pattern is forecast through much of next week. This pattern should lead to a warm up in temperatures with highs back in the low 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
The main challenge will be timing two rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours, with the possibility of a thunderstorm squall line on Saturday morning that could bring a healthy coverage of severe thunderstorm wind gusts.
Radar currently shows an east-west band of moderate rain and embedded thunderstorms over east-central Alabama and west-central Georgia. This will start to move southeast this afternoon, likely affecting the terminals through early evening.
A lull is likely overnight, then the squall line will move in from the west on Saturday morning.
MARINE
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Moderate southerly breezes will prevail across the northeast Gulf through Saturday evening. However, a line of thunderstorms is likely to move across the waters on Saturday morning, bringing strong to severe wind gusts. A weak front will move across the waters on Saturday night, followed by a turn to westerly breezes.
High pressure will pass across the northeast Gulf on Sunday night, and then elongate along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard on Monday and Tuesday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
For today and Saturday, multiple clusters of thunderstorms are likely to cross the area, with the heaviest rain and greatest potential for severe storms coming on Saturday. Behind the front on Sunday afternoon, the air mass will start to dry out. High afternoon dispersion is forecast over inland districts on Sunday afternoon due to a deep mixed layer and moderate westerly transport winds.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
The Ochlockonee and upper portions of the Withlacoochee Rivers have crested or will crest in the next 24 to 36 hours. After the crests, gradual reductions should continue. However, more rain is on the way this week with widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches. These amounts on their own shouldn't cause additional issues but localized higher amounts could cause further rises on already elevated rivers.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 86 74 86 70 / 50 30 90 50 Panama City 82 73 82 70 / 80 50 80 40 Dothan 84 71 78 67 / 70 50 90 30 Albany 85 71 82 67 / 80 50 90 40 Valdosta 88 74 87 69 / 30 40 90 60 Cross City 87 73 87 70 / 40 10 50 70 Apalachicola 81 75 82 72 / 80 30 70 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1203 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
New NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
The main concern through Saturday will be severe thunderstorms and heavy rain.
In the big picture, a positively tilted southern stream upper trough has moved east to Texas, ramping up west-southwesterly jet stream winds along the northern Gulf Coast. A turn to southerly low-level flow has brought a return of low-level moisture as a warm front tries to creep northward and inland.
Earlier this morning, a leading MCS raced east across the northeast Gulf, with the southern tip of the Forgotten Coast near Apalachicola getting severe thunderstorm winds, with a measured gust to 84 mph near the Cape in Gulf County. This MCS has now exited off to the east, with a temporarily rain-stabilized air mass over most of the forecast area late this morning. However, fully sunny skies over the eastern Panhandle should allow mid-day mid-May sunshine to quickly destabilize the air mass once more.
Already, a broken east-west band of thunderstorms is ongoing across the southern half of Alabama into west-central Georgia. It should take on a more positive tilt this afternoon and start to slowly move southeast through this evening, affecting most of the service area except perhaps the Forgotten Coast and southeast Big Bend. Given the slow movement of this line, a quick couple inches of rain should occur in spots. Gusty winds will also be a threat with thunderstorms.
Looking upstream, a shortwave trough currently south of El Paso TX will race east this afternoon, sparking development of a new MCS late this evening off the Texas and Louisiana coasts. It will continue to race east overnight near the northern Gulf Coast, pushing across the tri- state region on Saturday morning. Assuming this takes on a classic MCS structure and tracks more onshore than over the Gulf waters, then fairly widespread severe wind gusts would be possible, with isolated convective gusts in excess of 70 mph.
As is common with an exiting MCS, would not be surprised to see a significant lull in activity develop sometime in the afternoon or evening in the rain-stabilized air that follows.
SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Uncertainty remains high through the short period as a lot of what happens in this period, especially through the day on Saturday, will depend on how convection evolves through Friday and overnight into Saturday morning to our west. Elevated southwesterly flow will be firmly entrenched over the forecast area into Saturday as the next, possibly last, shortwave in the southwesterly flow will be approaching by daybreak. The timing of this wave will help determine how far west favorable forcing and instability develop through the morning and afternoon hours.
Further complicating matters will be the eastward progression of a potential MCS (organized complex of storms) in the morning.
Should this MCS plow through quickly ahead of the upper level shortwave, it is possible this could lower severe probs for our afternoon severe threat. With a slower shortwave/MCS and sufficient shear of 40 to 50 knots in place, we will likely realize some severe potential amongst the relatively large mid- level lapse rates and modest instability. More organized storms in this environment will likely bring a greater wind potential. With the steeper lapse rates, large hail is also possible, but confidence is lower in that threat materializing. A brief tornado can't be ruled out either but with low-level shear fairly low and very weak turning in the low-level hodographs, the damaging wind and hail threat will be the main hazards folks this weekend need to be monitoring.
Widespread showers, in addition to scattered severe storms, continue into the evening hours but a general downtrend in severe weather should begin to develop as the forcing moves east and instability wanes. However, with one last shortwave passage left, isolated severe storms remain possible overnight Saturday into early Sunday.
The trough pushes through Sunday with cooler temperatures aloft moving in. While the severe threat will be noticeably lower and east compared to Saturday's event, our GA counties along the I-75 corridor and down into the southeast Big Bend could see strong, possibly severe, storms given the favorable temperatures aloft and remnant instability.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Upper level ridge settles in as the trough from the weekend moves out. A quieter and drier pattern is forecast through much of next week. This pattern should lead to a warm up in temperatures with highs back in the low 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
The main challenge will be timing two rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours, with the possibility of a thunderstorm squall line on Saturday morning that could bring a healthy coverage of severe thunderstorm wind gusts.
Radar currently shows an east-west band of moderate rain and embedded thunderstorms over east-central Alabama and west-central Georgia. This will start to move southeast this afternoon, likely affecting the terminals through early evening.
A lull is likely overnight, then the squall line will move in from the west on Saturday morning.
MARINE
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Moderate southerly breezes will prevail across the northeast Gulf through Saturday evening. However, a line of thunderstorms is likely to move across the waters on Saturday morning, bringing strong to severe wind gusts. A weak front will move across the waters on Saturday night, followed by a turn to westerly breezes.
High pressure will pass across the northeast Gulf on Sunday night, and then elongate along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard on Monday and Tuesday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
For today and Saturday, multiple clusters of thunderstorms are likely to cross the area, with the heaviest rain and greatest potential for severe storms coming on Saturday. Behind the front on Sunday afternoon, the air mass will start to dry out. High afternoon dispersion is forecast over inland districts on Sunday afternoon due to a deep mixed layer and moderate westerly transport winds.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
The Ochlockonee and upper portions of the Withlacoochee Rivers have crested or will crest in the next 24 to 36 hours. After the crests, gradual reductions should continue. However, more rain is on the way this week with widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches. These amounts on their own shouldn't cause additional issues but localized higher amounts could cause further rises on already elevated rivers.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 86 74 86 70 / 50 30 90 50 Panama City 82 73 82 70 / 80 50 80 40 Dothan 84 71 78 67 / 70 50 90 30 Albany 85 71 82 67 / 80 50 90 40 Valdosta 88 74 87 69 / 30 40 90 60 Cross City 87 73 87 70 / 40 10 50 70 Apalachicola 81 75 82 72 / 80 30 70 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PCBF1 | 16 mi | 55 min | SSE 14G | 79°F | 29.87 | |||
| PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL | 28 mi | 55 min | SSE 13G | 80°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDTS DESTIN EXECUTIVE,FL | 18 sm | 49 min | SSE 11G19 | 10 sm | Overcast | 81°F | 72°F | 74% | 29.83 | |
| KECP NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTL,FL | 20 sm | 49 min | S 15G20 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 82°F | 72°F | 70% | 29.87 | |
| KVPS EGLIN AFB/DESTINFT WALTON BEACH,FL | 23 sm | 47 min | SSE 15 | 10 sm | Overcast | 82°F | 72°F | 70% | 29.82 |
Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:16 AM CDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:34 AM CDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:48 AM CDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:26 AM CDT 0.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:03 PM CDT 0.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:24 PM CDT Moonrise
Fri -- 03:10 PM CDT 0.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:06 PM CDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM CDT Sunset
Fri -- 07:34 PM CDT 0.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:16 AM CDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:34 AM CDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:48 AM CDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:26 AM CDT 0.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:03 PM CDT 0.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:24 PM CDT Moonrise
Fri -- 03:10 PM CDT 0.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:06 PM CDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM CDT Sunset
Fri -- 07:34 PM CDT 0.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:33 AM CDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:07 AM CDT 0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:47 AM CDT Sunrise
Fri -- 02:24 PM CDT Moonrise
Fri -- 07:15 PM CDT 0.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:32 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:33 AM CDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:07 AM CDT 0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:47 AM CDT Sunrise
Fri -- 02:24 PM CDT Moonrise
Fri -- 07:15 PM CDT 0.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:32 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Northwest Florida,
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