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AMZ452 Expires:202311292215;;584551 Fzus52 Kjax 290645 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 145 am est Wed nov 29 2023
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-292215- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 145 am est Wed nov 29 2023
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 145 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis..
building high pressure will be over the southeastern states by this afternoon. Breezy north- northwesterly winds over the offshore waters will gradually diminish overnight and will shift to northerly today. By Thursday afternoon, the high pressure center will push offshore of the carolinas, resulting in a brief period of onshore winds over our local waters through Thursday night. A weak coastal trough may produce a few showers over the offshore waters on Thursday evening before this feature lifts northward on Friday. Winds will then shift to southerly ahead of a developing storm system, with chances for showers and a few Thunderstorms increasing from Friday afternoon through the weekend as a warm front lifts northward from the florida peninsula. This storm system's cold front will then cross our local waters on Monday, accompanied by scattered showers and a few Thunderstorms.

Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of nov 25, 2023 at 1200 utc...
47 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 47 nautical miles east northeast of saint augustine beach. 56 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 75 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 291042 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 542 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Current obs shows pockets of temperatures below 32F, with the expectation for more locations to begin trend downward to the upper 20s to lower 30s along inland locations with coastal lows in the mid to upper 30s. The current Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory will continue through the early morning hours today. With a dry air mass overheard, sunshine and a light N/NW breeze will be present areawide today. Daytime temperatures in the 50s for most locations, while northern central Florida will see temperatures get to the lower 60s. By the evening, temperatures will again dip as cloud cover will be nearly nonexistent but for a layer of cirrus clouds. This will setup another night of widespread frost/light freezing temperatures for inland locations.
The Freeze Watch for Wednesday night into Thursday morning has been upgraded to a A Freeze Warning, with a new Frost Advisory along the edges of the warned areas.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

High pressure will shift offshore on Thursday, bring us more of a southeasterly flow throughout the day. This will gradually increase our surface moisture as well as rebounding our high temps closer to average. Expect to have more mid and high clouds present Thursday, though we will remain dry as our next weather maker takes shape to our west. With above said, also expect warmer overnight lows Thursday Night with the shift in flow and warm air advection, and therefore any frost or freeze unlikely.

Friday and Friday night, winds will veer to a south-southeast flow with mean winds to from 700 to 400 mb becoming west-southwesterly tapping into Gulf of Mexico moisture. Friday will be a priming day ahead of the weekend with precipitable water values increasing between 1.5 to 1.75 inches by sundown with PWATS increasing between 1.75 to 2 inches by daybreak Saturday morning. A couple weak vorticity lobes will approach region late Friday with isolated to widely scattered showers with some potential for embedded afternoon thunder. Areal coverage of showers will be more of the scattered category Friday night with isolated thunderstorm potential. Highs Friday will be mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with lows Friday night more balmy for this time of year residing in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Chances for showers and perhaps some isolated thunder increase into the weekend, as pieces of energy aloft from both the Polar and Subtropical Jets stream from southwest to northeast and impact our area. Excellent moisture transport from the GOM Gulf expect high rain chances through much of the weekend and into early next week with several upper impulses moving southwest to the northeast along a nearly stationary boundary near the FL/GA border. In addition some embedded thunder may occur through the weekend and Monday. However, SE GA is anticipated to become drier by Monday with NE FL remaining in the deeper moisture.
An upper trough swings across the eastern US and pushes the stalled boundary through the area Monday night or Tuesday. ECMWF and GFS timing have come more in line with the general consensus is for an unsettled pattern for most of this period before drying out behind t the front sometime late Monday or Tuesday. Temps trend above average for the weekend with high temps about 5 to 7 degrees above normal with lows about 10 to 12 degrees above normal. After the frontal passage late Monday or early Tuesday, Tuesday will be dry with near normal temperatures.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Clear skies over the area as VFR conditions will remain during the TAF period. Light northwesterly winds will begin to pick up to about 5 to 10 knots during the early hours after sunrise. Winds will begin to tapper off again by the evening Wednesday.

MARINE
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

High pressure centered over Texas will gradually build eastward today and Wednesday, becoming centered directly over our local waters on Wednesday night. Breezy northwesterly winds will prevail locally through this afternoon before shifting to northerly tonight, with speeds then diminishing by midweek. High pressure will then shift offshore of the Carolina coast on Thursday, with winds briefly becoming onshore before shifting to southerly on Friday as low pressure shifts northeastward from Texas and across the Ozarks before weakening over the Tennessee Valley. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected from Friday through the weekend as a warm front lifts northward from the Florida peninsula. This storm system's cold front will then move across our local waters early next week.

Rip Currents: A low risk is expected to continue into Thursday. A lower-end moderate risk may develop at the northeast FL beaches by Thursday afternoon as a southeasterly ocean swell arrives.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

A very dry air mass will persist throughout our region today, with long durations of critically low relative humidity values expected across inland portions of southeast GA during this afternoon. Northwesterly transport winds will diminish today and will shift to northerly during the afternoon hours across northeast and north central FL, resulting in poor daytime dispersion values nearly area-wide. A dry air mass will linger across inland portions of southeast GA on Thursday, but minimum relative humidity values should remain just above critical thresholds. Transport winds will shift to northeasterly by sunrise on Thursday and will shift to east-southeasterly during the afternoon hours. Light speeds across southeast GA will likely keep poor daytime dispersion values in place, with fair values expected by the afternoon hours across northeast and north central FL.
Transport winds will then shift to southerly on Friday, with breezy conditions developing during the afternoon hours. Fair daytime dispersion values are forecast nearly area-wide by Friday afternoon. A multi-day period with rounds of wetting rain will get underway on Friday and Friday night, becoming more pronounced this weekend into Monday.

CLIMATE
Issued at 847 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

Record low temperatures at our designated climate sites on Wednesday and Thursday mornings:

Nov 29 Nov 30 ---------------------- Jacksonville 30 (1959) 26 (1959)
Gainesville 28 (1959) 22 (1959)
Alma, GA 22 (1938) 22 (1955)
Craig Airport 34 (1988) 32 (1979)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 55 29 63 49 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 57 38 66 56 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 56 33 66 53 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 58 41 69 58 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 57 32 69 54 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 59 33 70 55 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ020-021-023- 024-030-031-035-122-136-222-225-232-236-425.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Thursday for FLZ020-021-023- 024-030-031-035-122-136-222-225-232-236-425.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ033-124-125- 132-137-140-237-240-325-340.

Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Thursday for FLZ124-125-132- 137-140-237-240-325-340.

GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Thursday for GAZ132>136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ154-166.

Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Thursday for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.

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Pablo Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:17 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:23 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:02 AM EST     4.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:10 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:20 PM EST     3.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pablo Creek, ICWW bridge, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet

St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:41 AM EST     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:18 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:13 AM EST     2.63 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:23 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:34 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:27 PM EST     -2.12 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:24 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:44 PM EST     1.47 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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