Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hosford, FL

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

As with other recent mornings, the Panhandle and southeast Alabama will be the areas to watch through sunrise for fog development, while continually assessing the need for any Dense Fog Advisories.
In those places, the Panhandle seabreeze pushed moist air far inland, with dewpoints near 70F on Sunday evening.

The main story this afternoon and evening will be thunderstorm development. Today could see the greatest coverage of storms in this recent stretch of afternoon storms. A back door cold front is currently pushing southwestward through east-central Georgia, as surface high pressure strengthens near the Outer Banks. The front was already a focus for strong thunderstorms near the I-75 corridor late Sunday evening, and it should provide the low-level focus needed for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon along the U.S. 84 corridor especially. A southwesterly seabreeze will also develop, providing needed low-level convergence along the I-10 corridor and over near the Suwannee Valley. So the area from I-10 up past U.S. 84 will have the highest thunderstorm chances.

In terms of the convective environment, the coverage of 1.3-1.4 inch Precipitable Water (PW) values has expanded quite a bit over the last 24 hours, though these values are still somewhat marginal for deep, moist convection. A narrow axis of moderate instability (1000+ J/kg) is forecast near and just north of the FL state line, from about Marianna east to Valdosta. Deep-layer shear will range from 15- 30 knots, with a chaotic looking vertical wind profile possibly leading to slow or boundary-driven storm motions. Stronger and taller storms may become steered by the northwest flow above 10,000 feet, which could lead to localized storm training and isolated heavy rain totals along the back-door cold front. Similar to today, the main threats will be short-lived 40-50 mph gusts in thunderstorm downbursts, hail, and lightning.

After sunset, slightly drier air behind the front will have a better chance to surge westward across the area. This will limit Tuesday morning fog potential to mainly the western Panhandle, i.e. Walton County westward.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

On Tuesday, the lingering boundary associated with the back door front will hang up along a line from about DHN-TLH-CTY. The front will be washing out and losing definition, as a 500 mb ridge axis noses from the southwest Gulf up across the FL Panhandle.
Nonetheless, a more isolated smattering of pulse showers and thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday afternoon, against a backdrop of nearly non-existent deep-layer shear.

By Wednesday, the seabreeze front will be the only remaining focus.
A surge of drier mid-level air will be working in from the Atlantic on easterly flow, so isolated storms will be all that's possible further west along the Panhandle seabreeze front.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

The 500 mb ridge axis will retreat southward on Thursday toward the southeast Gulf, opening the door to an increase in westerly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a cold front will be pushing across the Mississippi River on Thursday, and we will see low-level flow turn southerly. Nonetheless, we will still have dry mid-level air across the region, with GEFS ensemble mean PW values of only 1.2-1.3 inches.

On Friday, upper heights will fall a little as the southern fringe of an upper trough crossing the Great Lakes passes by. Meanwhile, a cold front will be pushing east across Alabama and Georgia. Given modest height falls to erode the mid-level cap and moderate convective instability, a decent round of showers and thunderstorms will move eastward, mainly from about I-10 northward where better forcing will be.

The far southern end of the cold front will reach the far northeast Gulf Coast on Saturday. Drier air should have overspread much of the region on Sunday, though there becomes a large range in ensemble solutions and possible outcomes.
Nonetheless, the forecast will be counting on drier air and the exit of Fridays upper trough to confine low-end PoPs to just the most favored seabreeze zones next Sunday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

MVFR ceilings linger across KVLD, KABY, and KDHN as a backdoor cold front is pushing southwest across the region. This front will be the focal point for showers and storms this afternoon, so have included some VCTS for KVLD, KDHN, and KTLH along with KECP for any seabreeze storms that get going. Showers and storms should wind down this evening as another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings develop across most TAF sites. There are some indications fog may develop over the Florida Panhandle, so have introduced some lower visibility for KECP with this TAF package. Other sites may see fog develop near the aerodrome, especially those that see rain this afternoon/evening, but confidence was not high enough to include at this sites quite yet.

MARINE
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

At 2 am EDT, Buoy 42036 was observing NW winds of 6-8 knots, and seas of less than 1 foot. Smooth conditions will continue today, until the sudden arrival of a back door cold front and easterly flow tonight.

From CWF synopsis...A back door cold front will move in from the northeast this evening, and strong high pressure near the Outer Banks will bridge southwest across the waters. Easterly flow will quickly develop, with moderate to fresh nocturnal surges expected tonight and again from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Flow will become more southerly on Thursday, in advance of a cold front that will be crossing the Mississippi River. Southerly breezes will decrease on Friday, and the front will nearly dissipate as it reaches the northeast Gulf waters on Friday night.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

The biggest fire weather concern will be with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms today and Tuesday. A back door cold front will move in from the northeast today, bringing an increase in easterly breezes this afternoon, especially across Georgia and Alabama districts. The front will act as a focus for thunderstorm development today. The front will turn up stationary and weaken on Tuesday, so storms will decrease in coverage on Tuesday, then Wednesday should be free of storms. Otherwise, areas of fog are expected around sunrise this morning over the Panhandle. Fog on Tuesday morning will be confined to the western Panhandle.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

One or two spots today along the U.S. 84 corridor in south Georgia down to near I-10 could see short-lived runoff issues.
Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, with the heaviest storms containing intense rainfall rates within their cores. Slow movement of the storms could allow localized spots to pick up a quick 2-3 inches of rain.

Otherwise, no flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 91 66 86 65 / 40 30 40 0 Panama City 86 68 84 68 / 10 0 20 0 Dothan 88 65 87 65 / 30 20 30 10 Albany 85 65 85 64 / 40 10 30 0 Valdosta 88 65 87 63 / 70 30 30 0 Cross City 91 64 86 60 / 50 20 50 0 Apalachicola 82 70 79 70 / 0 0 20 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.