Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Long Beach, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:57PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 10:25 AM CST (16:25 UTC) Moonrise 5:46PMMoonset 7:01AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 923 Am Cst Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet with occasional waves to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers late in the morning.
Tonight..Northeast winds near 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 923 Am Cst Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis..High pressure will settle over the northern gulf for a short time. A low pressure system will then develop over the central gulf of mexico tonight into Thursday. This low will pass over the north central gulf waters Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure will then build for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Beach, MS
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location: 30.32, -89.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 111617 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

UPDATE.

A hard cloud boundary (mainly mid level clouds now that low clouds mostly cleared out from land areas) separates clear skies generally over northwest half of area and mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over southeast half. Updated hourly sky and temperature forecast to reflect this cloud line only making some slight southeast movement in southwest areas, so somewhat faster recovery of temperature northwest and slower southeast. Other mostly minor changes to winds were made, and most areas will remain on the breezy/windy side much of today. Updates have been sent.

AVIATION.

Updated numerous TAF earlier due to faster erosion/clearing of low (MVFR category) clouds. VFR conditions should prevail through tonight before MVFR category CIGS return after 12z Thursday morning. Fairly brisk and gusty northeast winds are expected to persist through most of the forecast period.

MARINE.

Gale warnings were allowed to expire at 9 am. AWOS platforms offshore that are over 50-100 meters in elevation were still experiencing sustained gale conditions, but BUOY and AWOS observations closer to 10 meter standard height were in the high end Small Craft Advisory range in the upper 20s/lower 30s knots with gusts above gale force. Will watch observation trends through mid afternoon in case a short term gale warning issuance is needed again late this afternoon into early evening for some southern coastal waters.

22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 403 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/

SYNOPSIS .

Cold front is well south and east of our coastal waters this morning. High pressure extends from western Kentucky to northeast Texas, with sub-freezing temperatures near and north of the high. Back edge of the rain extends from Poplarville to Mandeville to Thibodaux at 330 am CST and shifting eastward at 15-20 mph. Should be east of our land areas by about 10 am or so.

Will be dropping Mississippi coastal counties and St. Tammany Parish from Wind Advisory with package issuance as sustained winds are expected to remain near or below 20 mph. Temperatures at 3 am are mainly in the 40s, except for 50s from Boothville and Grand Isle southward.

SHORT TERM .

Shortwave driving the area of rain is currently near the Texas- Louisiana border and continuing to move east. It should be east of the area by 21z or so. Some concern that we may be bringing clearing into the area a few hours too quickly unless it erodes from within due to subsidence. This, of course would have an effect on highs today. Any clearing isn't going to last a particularly long time as the next shortwave in the southern stream will already be exiting the southern Rockies late this afternoon. This will start spreading clouds back into the area late tonight or Thursday morning. That shortwave, and one in the northern stream about 18 hours behind it, will bring another rain opportunity to the area as early as late Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon or early evening. This would be primarily an event for the southeast half of the area, where Baton Rouge and McComb may not see much, if any rain. At this point, it appears that most thunderstorms should stay offshore in the warmer air.

Will trend toward the upper end of temperature guidance through Thursday night. Will go somewhat below warmest high temperature guidance on Friday, as it's not clear that eastern portions of the area will actually get into the warm sector of the system. 35

LONG TERM .

00z medium range model runs are in a little better agreement for Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures will moderate over the weekend as the next storm system approaches for Monday. As is usual this far out, there are timing and strength differences between the GFS and ECMWF, but both would indicate some strong to severe convection cannot be ruled out at some point Monday afternoon or Monday night. Another shot of cold air behind Monday night's front for Tuesday into Wednesday. Will go with blended guidance for the time being. 35

AVIATION .

Low level ceilings around OVC015 will remain for much of the area through sunrise. Ceilings will then begin a slow clearing for BTR and MCB while the remaining sites will contend with ceilings through much of the day. These will rise to BKN065 by mid to late morning and finally clear by evening for a short duration. Ceilings will be moving back into the area OVC020 by Thursday morning. Any lingering -RA should be moving out of all sites by sunrise today. Winds will remain elevated and gusty especially for sites near bodies of water.

MARINE .

Although winds will ease just a bit, they are still expected to be in the upper end of advisory criteria at 25-30kt at least over the north central gulf this morning. The gale warning will be extended to cover most of the open gulf waters through at least 9am today. This may be allowed to be dropped at 6am today and be replaced with small craft advisories. Strong northerly winds of around 25kt will remain over the northern gulf through tonight and ease just a bit for Thursday. Small craft advisories will remain through this time period. Showers with a thunderstorm or two will move east and south of the northern gulf today and tonight. But a sfc low will develop over the southern gulf and quickly move NE bringing another round of sh/ts back to the north central gulf for Thursday and Thursday night. Once this low moves NE, conditions will improve as winds ease and some clearing begins.

DECISION SUPPORT .

DSS code: Blue. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Forecast support to City of New Orleans and Miss gulf coast Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 55 39 59 47 / 10 10 30 60 BTR 56 39 61 49 / 10 10 30 50 ASD 57 40 62 48 / 10 10 40 60 MSY 56 48 62 55 / 20 10 40 60 GPT 54 43 60 50 / 30 10 40 70 PQL 55 41 63 48 / 30 10 40 80

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Thursday for GMZ536-538-555- 557-575-577.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-550- 552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Thursday for GMZ538-555-557- 575-577.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 10 mi55 min NNE 16 G 19 45°F 56°F1031.4 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 31 mi55 min 63°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 34 mi55 min NNE 21 G 28 45°F 1030.2 hPa
42067 - USM3M02 35 mi85 min NNE 21 G 27 48°F 6 ft1029.1 hPa (+3.7)
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 42 mi55 min NNE 21 G 26 47°F 61°F1030.7 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 49 mi55 min NNE 22 1030.5 hPa

Wind History for West Pier, Port of Gulfport, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS7 mi32 minN 11 G 1910.00 miOvercast46°F33°F61%1031.1 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS14 mi29 minNNE 12 G 1710.00 miOvercast46°F36°F69%1031.5 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS17 mi35 minNNE 7 G 167.00 miOvercast45°F37°F76%1031.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGPT

Wind History from GPT (wind in knots)
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S7--------------------S6S5SW6S34S4S5S53
2 days agoCalmW3CalmCalmCalmSE5CalmCalmCalmW3CalmSW3CalmSW3S3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS4S6S5S8

Tide / Current Tables for Gulfport, Gulfport Harbor, Mississippi
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Gulfport
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:00 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:44 AM CST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:45 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:56 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:58 PM CST     1.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:14 PM CST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.31.10.70.40.20-000.10.20.40.50.60.80.911.11.31.51.81.921.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:00 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM CST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:46 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:56 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:15 PM CST     1.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:14 PM CST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.310.70.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.2-00.20.40.60.91.11.41.61.71.81.81.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.