Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Beach, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:28PM Monday October 14, 2019 8:21 PM CDT (01:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:18PMMoonset 7:31AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 423 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 14 2019
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely in the morning.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds near 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 423 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis..A stationary front near lake pontchartrain will move north as a warm front tonight. A cold front will push into the coastal waters Wednesday. This front is expected to stall over the offshore waters Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Beach, MS
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location: 30.32, -89.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 142107
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
407 pm cdt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
Current wind fields would indicate frontal boundary is just off
the coast, but moisture fields and radar returns would argue for
very close to the interstate 10-12 corridor. Little in the way of
lightning currently over the cwa, and the main area of
precipitation appears to be shifting north somewhat. Areas where
the rain has been a little more widespread, such as hammond,
mccomb and baton rouge, have had trouble getting much past 70
degrees, while most other areas have been in the upper 70s and
lower 80s.

Short term
Precipitable water values remain high, around 2 inches, until
frontal system moves through the area around midday Wednesday. As
impulses move through the somewhat zonal flow across the gulf
coast, periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms will be
possible. Question will be where the heaviest rain focuses. With
the boundary expected to shift somewhat northward over the next 24
hours, threat of heaviest rain should primarily be to the north of
the local area. Can't rule out southwest mississippi seeing a
couple inches of rain, though. With forecast CAPE values near
2000 j kg tomorrow, a few strong storms are possible, but shear
and lapse rates weaker than one would like for severe weather.

Likely to categorical pops near and north of the boundary tonight
through tomorrow night and chance pops Wednesday morning. Dry and
cooler on Thursday.

Expect most or all of CWA to be in the warm sector tomorrow, with
highs well into the 80s for most. Cooler air will arrive during
the morning Wednesday, with some southern locations reaching the
lower 80s for highs. Will go with a blend for lows Wednesday
night highs Thursday, with most areas in the lower to middle 70s
for highs Thursday.

Long term
Front remains south of the area through Friday before returning
northward for the weekend. Biggest question for the weekend will
be the development of low pressure in the western gulf of mexico
in response to an upper wave moving eastward out of texas Friday
night. ECMWF is somewhat more bullish on low pressure development,
and accordingly has higher rain chances and a stronger wind field
for Friday night and Saturday. Have undercut ECMWF pops somewhat,
but not as dry as GFS solution for those periods. Next frontal
passage just beyond the forecast period, late Monday night or
Tuesday.

Once boundary moves back northward Friday or Friday night,
augtober returns for late Saturday through Monday, with highs well
into the 80s Sunday and Monday.

Aviation
Currently, ifr to lifr at kmcb, khdc and kbtr, where terminals
definitely north of the front. South of the front, conditions
trending toward MVFR ceilings, although there are occasional
improvements toVFR. Any thunder this afternoon should be limited
to khum, knew and kmsy, with threat diminishing after sunset.

While front is expected to get pulled north somewhat, terminals
north of the front should see ceilings and visibilities lower to,
or remain low end MVFR to ifr overnight. Should then see an
improvement in ceilings beyond 15z Tuesday. Redevelopment of
precipitation during the late morning and early afternoon on
Tuesday, with somewhat better chances for tsra during the
afternoon

Marine
Onshore flow should return to coastal waters this evening where it
isn't already occurring as boundary moves northward. Flow will
remain onshore until frontal passage on Wednesday, with exercise
caution headlines likely to be necessary as cold advection kicks
in Wednesday night. Should just be a brief period into early
Thursday. Question then becomes strength of low pressure mentioned
in long term portion of the discussion. For now, will paint winds
in the 15 to 20 knot range, but if current ECMWF solution
verifies, wind forecast will need to be bumped up later.

Decision support
Dss code: blue.

Deployed: brief deployments to support city of new orleans for
building collapse.

Activation: none.

Activities: forecast support to city of new orleans for building
collapse.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 66 82 66 74 60 80 80 40
btr 71 84 69 75 60 70 70 40
asd 69 86 68 81 40 60 70 50
msy 75 87 74 81 30 50 50 50
gpt 71 83 71 79 30 60 70 50
pql 69 85 69 81 30 60 70 50

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 10 mi51 min NNE 6 G 8 72°F 77°F1017.8 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 31 mi51 min 80°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 34 mi57 min NE 12 G 14 74°F 1017.6 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 38 mi96 min NNE 7 74°F 1018 hPa69°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 42 mi51 min ENE 15 G 17 76°F 82°F1017.1 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 49 mi81 min NNE 12 74°F 1018.3 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for West Pier, Port of Gulfport, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS7 mi28 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast71°F66°F84%1017.4 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS14 mi85 minNE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F66°F88%1017.5 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS17 mi27 minNE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F68°F94%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGPT

Wind History from GPT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE6N3NE4N4N4CalmN3NE3CalmNE3NE4N5N6N4N6N6N6N9N8N8N9NE5N3
1 day agoN7N10N65N5NE5N4N6N7N6N8NW8N7N8NW8NW8N8NW7NW6NE45NE7N9NE7
2 days agoNE3NE6CalmN4CalmN4E6N9N11N12N14N13N13N9
G21
N13
G18
N15N11N11N11N9NE8N9N7N7

Tide / Current Tables for Gulfport, Gulfport Harbor, Mississippi
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Gulfport
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Mon -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:16 AM CDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:30 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:02 PM CDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:26 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:43 PM CDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM CDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.110.80.70.50.40.50.60.70.80.911110.90.90.90.91.11.21.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:30 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:33 AM CDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:26 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:17 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:16 PM CDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.41.41.31.110.90.80.80.80.80.911.11.11.21.21.31.31.41.51.61.61.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.