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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 957 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet this afternoon. A chance of showers late this morning, then a slight chance of showers early this afternoon.
Tonight..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet.

GMZ600 957 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..Strong northwesterly to northerly flow will occur through this evening in the wake of a cold front with gusts to gale force over the gulf. A mostly moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow follows though Thursday night.

FXUS64 KMOB 101115 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 515 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 515 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 General MVFR to VFR conditions were noted across the forecast area with a few embedded thunderstorms along and south of the Florida coastline at 11z. This activity was along and west of a southeast moving cold front. The front is expected to reach Okaloosa County before 18z, with southwesterly winds around 10 knots shifting to a strong northwesterly (15 to 20kts and gusty) behind the front. The MVFR to VFR conditions are expected to continue behind the front before clearing out late this afternoon into the evening.
/16

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 409 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

A strong cold front crosses land portions of the forecast area this morning, and southeast of the marine portion of the area early this afternoon. This is response to a strong upper level shortwave moving over the eastern Conus early this afternoon. A colder, dry airmass moves over the area behind the front beginning today. The increase in winds ahead of the front have helped to mix our any residual fog over Mobile Bay and nearby counties by 12z/6am, with the dense fog advisory for Mobile Bay along with Mobile and Baldwin Counties cancelled with this package.

Ahead of the front, the latest analysis indicate SBCapes of 1000- 1500J/kg, 0-1km helicities around 150 m^2/s^2, EBWD shear of 50- 55kt, and DCapes in the 600-900J/kg range. Am expecting some drop in instability as the front cross the area early this morning, Still, when combined, low topped storms are possible, with damaging winds the primary threat. Brief, low topped tornadoes can also not be ruled out, along with hail. Timing of the front places best chance of strong to severe storms well east of I-65 by 12z/6am, mainly with more discrete northeast moving cells ahead of the front. Am hesitant to say the threat will be over by 6am, especially with the front still over the forecast area, with a few weakly organized bowing segments possible along southern portions of the front.

As mentioned above, a significantly cooler and drier airmass will be moving over the forecast area beginning today. Ahead of the approaching front, temperatures already above seasonal norms will quickly drop as the front moves through. Behind the front, temperatures are expected to continue to drop through the day.
For today, this means temperatures topping out in the mid 50s to near 60 northwest of I-65 early (with the front roughly along I-65 by 12z), then dropping through the day. Southeast of I-65, temperatures topping out around 60 to near 70 are expected.
Tonight, the influx of cold air will bring near to below freezing temperatures to the majority of the forecast area (basically I-10 north), with areas south generally seeing mid to upper 30s.
Monday, mid 50s to near 60 are expected, well below seasonal norms.

After the cold front crosses area waters today, the rip current risk will drop to low tonight into Monday as onshore swell settles under offshore flow. Winds offshore will shift to more easterly early in the coming week, with a strengthening into mid week. The Rip Current risk rises back to High by Wednesday as the increasing winds bring increasing swell to area beaches.
/16

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

A ridge of sfc high pressure along with a zonal flow aloft will continue over the area. This will maintain dry and cool conditions. Lows Monday night will be in the upper 20s and low 30s inland to mid/upper 30s near the coast. High s on Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to around 60. Lows Tuesday night will be in the low to mid 30s inland to low/mid 40s along the coast. /13

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

A southwesterly upper flow develops on Wednesday as a large trough digs across the southwest. The GFS model is suggesting the possibility of a developing low pressure area over the eastern Gulf Thursday evening or Friday, but there are still some uncertainties with that. Regardless, by the end of the period, atmospheric moisture will be on the increase across our area as surface winds become more easterly, but for now it appears that any increasing rain chances look to hold off until late in the week. High temps will generally be in the upper 50s and low 60s with lows in the 40s and 50s. /13

MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Behind a strong cold front crossing area waters beginning around sunrise, Small Craft level winds appear as the front begins to cross area waters, with near gale force offshore winds/above gale force gusts appearing Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening over our far offshore zones. Am still expecting the front to move southeast of the marine portion of our forecast area by 21z this afternoon.
Winds ease to moderate along with shifting to easterly Monday through Monday night as surface high pressure passes north of the forecast area. A tightening of the pressure gradient along the coast will bring a moderate to at times strong easterly flow by mid week.
/16

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ650-655.

Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ670-675.

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Fishing Bend
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Sun -- 04:11 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:34 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:49 AM CST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:55 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:22 PM CST     1.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida, Tide feet

Warrington
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Sun -- 04:12 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:28 AM CST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:34 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:56 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:14 PM CST     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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