Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gulf Breeze, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

For the time being we remain cool and dry, gradually warming up through mid week with isolated to scattered rain showers entering the picture again Wednesday night into Friday. Afternoon highs improve back to the middle and perhaps even upper 60's Thursday into Friday with overnight lows warming into the middle and upper 40's late week.

All eyes turn towards our next potentially impactful weather system as we head into the weekend. A powerful arctic airmass will be infiltrating the eastern half of the U.S. late week into the weekend with an arctic cold front surging southward into the gulf coast states. The upper pattern will favor the potential for a prolonged period of overrunning precipitation throughout the weekend as warm, moist air overrides cooler air across the area.
Trends in deterministic and ensemble forecast guidance have certainly raised some eyebrows in regards to winter weather prospects over the past 24 hours. Some of the guidance has the arctic airmass working its way into the area prior to precipitation leaving, while others have it moving in after precip has come to an end. There remains enough uncertainty to where I don't want to dive into the nitty gritty details on things, but there are a few notes to put in here that will be worth watching for forecast trends in the coming days.

The first note is with respect to the powerful arctic front. In many cases, forecast guidance at this range can struggle with being too slow on the speed of arctic fronts of this magnitude working their way southward across the U.S., which could end up being the case here and is something to monitor moving forward. We have already seen this being depicted on latest model guidance as the arctic airmass arrival into our area has moved forward in time. The other note is that this is an overrunning precip setup, which we know model guidance tends to underestimate the extent of precipitation intensity and coverage owing to under modeling the amount of warm air overriding the cool air below. If this is the case, I could see overall precipitation totals climb as we approach the "event", whether it be rain or winter weather.

One thing that is of somewhat greater confidence given the setup is if wintry precipitation were to occur, it would be in the form of freezing rain or sleet. These setups are typically very difficult to get all snow out of, and glancing at forecast soundings from available guidance reveals a very pronounced warm layer aloft to melt any falling snow into rain. Then said rain freezes into sleet or on contact with surfaces as it falls into low level thermal profiles that dip below or well below freezing.

Bottom line: We're still 5+ days out, and forecast guidance will likely change in some manner as the atmospheric column and surface features involved in this setup get sampled over the coming days upstream. The potential is there for winter weather, but nothing is guaranteed this far out. We will continue to actively monitor trends in guidance over the next few days. MM/25

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Northerly winds 5 knots or less overnight will become north-northeasterly 5 to 10 knots on Tuesday, along with increasing high clouds. /22

MARINE
Issued at 1109 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

A light offshore flow becomes light to moderate tonight into Tuesday. Light to occasionally moderate easterly to southeasterly flow prevails Wednesday through Friday, shifting to a moderate northeast flow Saturday and moderate to strong offshore flow Saturday night. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 30 57 38 64 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 34 57 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 37 57 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 26 55 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 26 53 32 62 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 25 51 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 25 56 30 62 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.