Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:20 PM Moonrise 3:45 PM   Moonset 4:11 AM

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GMZ655 Expires:202404200315;;017309 Fzus54 Kmob 191412 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 912 am cdt Fri apr 19 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz650-655-200315- coastal waters from pensacola fl to pascagoula ms out 20 nm- coastal waters from okaloosa walton county line fl to pensacola fl out 20 nm- 912 am cdt Fri apr 19 2024
Rest of today - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Saturday - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Sunday - North winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sunday night - North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 3 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Monday - North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Monday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Tuesday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 912 Am Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis - A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow prevails through Saturday night. A cold front moves across the marine area by Sunday with offshore flow becoming prevalent into early next week. Winds start to turn easterly and then southeasterly by Tuesday.

FXUS64 KMOB 191749 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1249 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place across the region at issuance time. Expect these conditions to prevail through the evening hours, with light southerly winds. Low stratus is expected to develop around midnight tonight and spread across the area during the overnight hours. Ceilings are anticipated to drop to IFR or LIFR tonight. Patchy fog may also develop late tonight reducing visibilities to MVFR or lower. Fog may briefly become dense a little before sunrise in a few spots. Fog should dissipate and low stratus should begin to lift by the middle to latter part of the morning. /96

NEAR TERM
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Main forecast concern through early this weekend continues to be low ceilings and patchy fog each morning given the light winds and ample moisture. Low ceilings continue to plague the area as of 08z, which aligns with the current SREF guidance. Visibilities continue to bounce around, but have generally remained above 1sm overnight (thus far). A stratus deck moving in from the west may help to keep visibilities from tanking over the coming hours. That said, we will continue to monitor fog trends in satellite imagery, observations, and area webcams throughout the pre-dawn hours and will issue an advisory if necessary. Expect a similar pattern for Friday night into early Saturday with ceilings dropping around midnight or so.

Most of the area remains dry today with the only chance for rain remaining north of the Highway 84 corridor this afternoon. Winds remain southwesterly through the day as the surface ridge keeps a firm grip over the eastern Gulf. HRRR guidance indicates that PWATs will gradually increase to 1.4-1.5 inches later today as moisture steadily slides into the area from the west-southwest. A cold front slides toward the area throughout the day, likely approaching our northernmost counties late tonight. The front will likely pump the breaks as it moves into our CWA given the zonal flow aloft and weak surface ridging sitting to our south over the eastern Gulf. While we can't rule out a few showers or potentially a storm across our northernmost counties this afternoon ahead of the front, we're not seeing as much ascent aloft (in comparison to past model runs) to kick off much convection today. However, a few subtle shortwaves move into the region by late Saturday morning, which will help to kick off scattered showers and storms, especially by the afternoon hours, as the front drifts south and deeper into the area. While there isn't much shear in place ahead of the front, there's ample instability for the storms to tap into on Saturday afternoon. Can't rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds in the afternoon hours.

Beach Note: Risk of rip currents remains MODERATE through this evening and drops to LOW this weekend. The risk of rip currents increases to a MODERATE again by Tuesday. 07/mb

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Zonal flow will quickly become northwesterly in the wake of the subtle shortwave that will bring us rain during the day Sunday. Sunday will be the only chance for rain next week as a very weak and subtle subtropical impulse will move across the westerly flow. This will lead to a rather small window of ascent over the area along the slowly sagging surface boundary draped across the area. Expect overrunning rain and maybe some thunder across the area Sunday morning into the early afternoon. The surface cold front will move offshore leading to drier conditions returning. Dry northwesterly flow will temporarily work its way into the area monday leading to a cooler and drier forecast through the middle of the week. Behind the front temperatures will drop into the 70s for highs and 40s for lows before steadily increasing back into the 80s for highs and 60s for lows by Thursday. 03/13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 66 84 59 68 47 73 49 77 / 0 20 30 80 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 67 82 64 71 51 73 54 74 / 0 10 10 70 10 0 0 0 Destin 67 80 66 73 54 74 57 74 / 0 10 10 60 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 64 85 57 66 44 73 45 79 / 0 30 30 80 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 65 80 51 60 43 70 44 79 / 10 40 60 80 0 0 0 0 Camden 64 81 52 60 43 69 44 77 / 20 30 50 80 0 0 0 0 Crestview 63 87 60 73 46 75 47 78 / 0 20 10 70 10 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Fishing Bend
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Fri -- 04:11 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:06 AM CDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:44 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:30 PM CDT     0.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida, Tide feet

Warrington
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Fri -- 04:11 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:45 AM CDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:45 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:22 PM CDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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