Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gulf Breeze, FL

FXUS64 KMOB 300920 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

New Discussion, Marine

DISCUSSION
Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Through Thursday Night...

The upper ridge over our region will continue to breakdown and shift eastward through tonight in response to a medium amplified upper trough exiting the southern Rockies and out over the southern Plains. With weakening aloft, along with isentropic upglide along the western periphery of a surface ridge extending from the western Atlantic across the southeast states and northeast Gulf, a cluster of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across interior southwest and south central Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.

With strong surface heating, MLCape values are expected to range between 1000 and 1500 J/KG by 4 PM. SRH and Bulk Shear values remain practically NIL, and the mid-upper level Lapse Rates are unimpressive. Therefore, the near storm environment primarily favors the development of non-severe pulse-type storms, but a few could become strong with localized wind gusts to 45 mph and small hail.
After this convection settles down, patchy fog development is likely after midnight, with areas of fog possible by late tonight into Thursday morning. Most visibilities are expected to lower to between 1 to 3 miles, with localized dense fog in low-lying and other fog- prone areas possible, especially across south central Alabama.

The upper trough exiting the southern Plains late tonight will pass over the lower Mississippi River region and southeast states on Thursday while deamplifying. As a result, a band of showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama Thursday afternoon and evening, and will continue to spread across the remainder of our forecast area through the overnight hours while decreasing in coverage. MLCape values are expected to range between 1200 and 1700 J/KG prior to the arrival of the convection, and Bulk Shear values could be on the order of 30 knots. So again, the near storm environment primarily favors the development of non-severe pulse-type storms, but a few could become strong with localized wind gusts to 45 mph and small hail.

High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees well inland from the coast today and Thursday, with low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Low temperatures in the mid 60s are expected north of I-10, with upper 60s to around 70 degrees south to the coast. A Moderate Risk of rip currents is expected through the period. /22

Friday through Tuesday...

An upper trough will move into the eastern states Friday into Saturday. This will send a cold front slowly southward through the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day along the boundary. Given the rather slow progression of the boundary, the best rain chances will likely follow suit increasing from northwest to southeast and gradually getting further southeast each day. By Sunday the front will move through ushering in cooler and drier air from the northwest through Tuesday. /13
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