Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pascagoula, MS

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Global models continue to show a split flow pattern west of the Rockies merging into one as trough/s push through the Mississippi River Valley late this week. Surface ridge centered east of the local area will keep southerly flow in place. It'll take a couple days from now to saturate sub-1" PW column but model soundings show that happening by Thursday. At the same time, cooling in the mid and upper levels will translate into pretty decent instabilty. Not sure which is more notable, WBZ of 9kft or the very pronounced dry slot in the 850-700mb level. Those 2 features standout as hail and downburst potential with stronger thunderstorms that develop.
Although SPC outlook doesn't include any of the CWA in severe potential, shear is only one parameter. Local sub to marginally severe storms will be possible. Thurs.

On Friday, the frontal boundary associated with what appears to be a 2nd shortwave riding through the base of the trough, slow sags into CWA The setup looks less severe and moreso heavy rain and flash flooding potential. In terms of if this will translate into Saturday, that's a bit more uncertain as it depends on how far south the boundary moves.

The main upper trough shifts east into the Western Atlantic this weekend. Like this week's setup, a ridge will then build in behind it and begin at least knocking down POPs some.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

VFR conditions in place at forecast issuance, although a brief BKN025 can't be ruled out in one or two spots. Any more widespread lower conditions will hold off until closer to 09-10z when MVFR ceilings are likely to become more widespread, with the potential for IFR at KMCB. Those conditions should improve by 14-15z Wednesday as heating mixes out the low level inversion. Sustained winds could increase to around 15 knots around midday, with a few gusts to 20 knots or more possible. Those winds will relax around sunset tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Surface ridge will be centered northeast of the local marine waters will transtion to more due east as it gets shoved southward across the western Atlantic from the next approaching system. That'll both keep winds in our marine zones elevated and onshore. Should see a gradual directional shift from southeast to due south simply with the position change of the ridge. Recent obs show speeds right at that Exercise Caution threshold, so will have the headline out for tonight. Weaker winds appear more likely over the weekend as approaching cold front fizzles out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 86 68 86 / 0 0 0 70 BTR 69 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 50 ASD 69 86 70 86 / 0 0 10 40 MSY 72 87 73 87 / 0 0 10 30 GPT 71 83 71 83 / 0 0 10 30 PQL 67 85 68 84 / 0 0 10 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.