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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 934 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet.

GMZ500 934 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
a cold front passed through the coastal waters early this morning leaving winds out of the northwest to north in the 25 to 30 knot range over most or all of the waters. These high winds will push seas to between 6 and 10 feet over the open gulf waters and 3 to 6 feet in the sounds and lakes. These rough conditions will last into Monday morning before improving briefly as high pressure passes to the east of the area. Another low pressure system deepening over the central gulf on Tuesday through Friday will increase easterly flow to near 20 knots. Seas will once again turn rough as the combination of wind waves and swell pushes seas to around 7 to 10 feet in the open gulf waters.

FXUS64 KLIX 101740 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1140 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 741 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Updated to remove all mention of thunder from first period grids and to drop PoPs from all but Jackson County Mississippi. Also updated hourly temperature, dew point and wind grids based on hourly observations.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Deep, positively tilted upper trough extended from Lake Superior to northeast Texas early this morning, with upper ridging along the Pacific Coast. At 3 AM CST, the cold front was near a Gulfport to Galliano line. A band of showers and thunderstorms accompanied the front, and was continuing to move eastward. No indications of severe weather to this point of the night, with wind gusts only in the 30-35 mph range for the most part, with the heaviest rain amounts generally in the 1-2 inch range.

Visibilities are improving with the passage of the cold front, outside of where heavy rain was occurring, and will cancel the Dense Fog Advisory for all land areas in the CWA with forecast issuance in the next hour. Temperatures that were in the upper 60s and lower 70s ahead of the front have fallen into the lower and middle 50s within a couple of hours behind the front.

Expect any thunderstorms will have shifted to the east of most or all land areas by 6 AM CST, and entirely possible that any significant rain will also clear the area by that point, but will hold some small PoPs across extreme eastern portions of the area early this morning. Clearing may be a bit slower to arrive, but expect sunshine to arrive by early to mid afternoon at worst.

Cold advection will continue to cool temperatures during the morning hours this morning, but abundant sunshine this afternoon should allow some recovery in readings during the early-mid afternoon hours. Did consider a brief Wind Advisory south of Lake Pontchartrain during the morning and early afternoon, but not seeing winds upstream strong enough to justify it at this time.

After sunset, with clear skies, temperatures should drop off pretty quickly into the 40s this evening. Northern portions of the CWA will likely get pretty close to the freezing mark by sunrise Monday, with the main question being whether winds drop off to calm. At this point, not confident that will happen. Would note that areas that are forecast to get close to freezing were in a similar temperature range 3 days ago, and have had multiple freezes this season, so will forego a Freeze Watch/Warning.

Plenty of sunshine expected on Monday, although may see some high clouds late in the day as high pressure moves east of the area.
Highs probably won't get much past 60.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Southern stream southwesterly flow is likely to start spreading high cloud cover back toward the area by Monday night or Tuesday.
Low and mid level RH values will be rather low, so the only real effect through at least Wednesday will be the potential for a rather extensive cirrus deck. And that is where the uncertainty on low temperatures comes in. The normal adjustment would be to go toward the NBM 50th percentile or lower on minimum temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. It does appear that the 00z MAV numbers may have caught the potential for cirrus somewhat, but this is something we'll need to monitor over the next 36 hours.

Beyond Wednesday, the GFS/ECMWF solutions have come into slightly better agreement on the amount of phasing (if any) between northern and southern jets. While earlier runs painted some potential for low pressure to develop near the coast, the 00z runs have done so across southern portions of the Gulf late in the week and next weekend. The GFS solution would be close enough to spread at least some rain across the southern portion of the area Friday or Saturday. The more impactful part would be the potential for breezy to windy conditions near the coast and offshore due to the pressure gradient between the low over the Gulf and high pressure to the north. We'll continue to monitor these trends over the next few days. Don't expect major departures from normal temperatures during the second half of the week and next weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Overall weather has cleared with the exception of KGPT which is still seeing lingering effects of this morning's frontal passage shown by its low CIG and MVFR status. This will be clearing to IFR in the next several hours. All other locations are currently IFR and this will remain the case through the period. Only notable condition is winds dropping through the period and shifting to northeasterly at the very end of the period.

MARINE
Issued at 940 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

The frontal passage early this morning left winds out of the northwest to north in the 25 to 30 knot range in the coastal offshore waters with frequent gusts to 34 knots there. These conditions are expected through early afternoon before winds ease somewhat. There will be a brief lull in hazardous conditions Monday afternoon and much of the overnight hours before winds and waves increase again. Expect that Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines, or Small Craft Advisories will be necessary over most or all of the waters for a significant portion of the forecast period from Tuesday through the end of the workweek, and perhaps beyond.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 54 31 57 31 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 58 33 61 35 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 59 33 59 34 / 20 0 0 0 MSY 58 42 56 43 / 20 0 0 0 GPT 60 35 58 37 / 20 0 0 0 PQL 63 32 60 33 / 30 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534.

Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534.

Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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