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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 328 Am Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers.

GMZ600 328 Am Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis..A moderate to strong offshore flow will continue through the early morning hours before gradually diminishing into this afternoon. A light to moderate northeasterly flow will prevail through Tuesday. A much stronger northeasterly to easterly flow pattern will become established over the marine area with an an increase in seas during the middle to latter part of the week.

FXUS64 KMOB 111122 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 522 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR will remain prevalent through the next 24 hours. /21

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 426 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

An upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will gradually translate eastward into the western Atlantic by this evening, leaving a zonal flow aloft in place over our forecast area. Cool surface high pressure will build over the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and adjacent Gulf Coast states through tonight.
Sunny skies are expected today with perhaps a modest increase in high level cloud cover tonight. Highs today should range in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. Another chilly night can be expected tonight with lows around 30 to the lower 30s over most locations along and north of I-10. Lows near the coast will be a little warmer in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Dry and tranquil weather conditions will continue into Tuesday with occasional high cloudiness passing overhead within W-SW flow aloft. Highs Tuesday afternoon look to range in the upper 50s to lower 60s. /21

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 423 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

An upper ridge builds north over the Mississippi River through mid week. Surface high pressure over the upper Mississippi River shifts east to over the Midwest in response, keeping the Southeast under general northeasterly low level flow into mid week.
Moisture levels are on the increase, bringing increasing cloud cover mainly in the mid/upper levels of the troposphere according to model soundings. Low temperatures see a rise in the Short Term, with increasing mid/upper level cloud cover and upper level subsidence overriding a continued low level influx of cool air.
Low temperatures ranging from the low 30s north of Highway 84 to low 40s along the coast Tuesday night rise to the upper 30s north of Highway 84 to upper 40s along the coast Wednesday night. High temperatures Wednesday see little change between incoming heating and outgoing cooling from Tuesday, ranging from around 60 well inland to the low 60s close to the coast, close to the previous day.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Guidance is advertising the airmass over the forecast area and nearby moistening enough for light rainshowers to return Friday night into Saturday as a shortwave system approaches the Southeast. Better dynamics remain south of the northern Gulf coast, keeping higher PoPs south of the coast along with any chance of strong to severe weather. Increasing cloud cover and rain chances keep high temperatures around seasonal norms through the Extended, though low temperatures rise to well above seasonal, with the cloud cover inhibiting overnight radiational cooling.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 423 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Small Craft Advisory continues for the coastal waters out 60 nm as northerly flow remains elevated around 20 kt with a few higher gusts. Exercise caution headlines continue early this morning for Lower Mobile Bay and the MS Sound. A light to moderate northeasterly flow will then prevail through Tuesday. An extended period of strong E-NE flow is expected to develop over the marine area starting late Wednesday and continuing into the upcoming weekend as a tight gradient sets up on the southern periphery of strong high pressure that will be in place over the eastern U.S. Low pressure may also develop over the vicinity of Gulf this weekend. Gusts to gale force may impact the marine area late Wednesday through the latter part of the week. Expect seas to build considerably late in the week, with the latest forecast showing seas of 7-10 ft near shore and 9-13 ft well offshore late Thursday into Friday. /21

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 59 33 60 38 61 44 62 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 60 39 60 41 62 49 61 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 60 43 61 45 64 50 63 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 58 31 61 33 62 39 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 56 30 61 32 60 39 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 55 30 60 30 58 38 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 59 29 59 34 62 42 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655- 670-675.

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Bon Secour
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Mon -- 05:18 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:49 AM CST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:39 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:00 PM CST     1.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile Bay Entrance
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Mon -- 03:01 AM CST     -2.12 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:19 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:58 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:31 PM CST     2.16 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:41 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:52 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:37 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots

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