Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elberta, AL

FXUS64 KMOB 090510 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1210 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

New Aviation, Discussion, Marine

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Now through Tuesday

We will be slowly moving into a more unsettled pattern as we head into the weekend as moisture steadily returns around the periphery of a large upper high. Through the weekend we will be kinda stuck between a rock and a hard place with a rather stout upper high over the Bahamas and upper troughing over the central Midwest. The most active days look to be Thursday and Friday this week as the ridge breaks down temporarily as the upper trough attempts to dig into the south. Unsuccessful in this attempt, the upper trough will likely make it into northwestern Mississippi. However, this should be close enough to push back the ridge and allow some better ascent and southwesterly flow to develop. With PWATS inching up to around 2 to 2.25 inches on the back of southwesterly flow, expect coverage of storms to increase each day through Friday. Storm chances tomorrow will be highest in the west, then by Thursday more area wide and then leaning towards the eastern half on Friday. Like most summertime patterns, expect some storms capable of damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will remain around their usual, with highs in the low to mid 90s being limited by the afternoon rain and increased coverage. With the increase in moisture, we do expect dewpoints to rise and an increase in heat indices each day likely topping out in the 103 to 106 range and heat risk follows suit suggesting a hot uncomfortable weather like most summer days here.

By the weekend and into early next week, the upper ridge will begin to build back into the area. As a result we should expect to see storm coverage decrease to a more classic summertime as PWATS drop into the 1.5 inch range and subsidence takes over. The issue is the heat will be on as we will have plenty of days to get rich low level moisture in place and our placement of the ridge would be a little more in line with what we normally see for our hotter days. Expect highs next week to creep up into the mid to even upper 90s and coupled with dewpoints in the upper 70s re-enforced by low level southeasterly flow; heat indices will likely flirt in the 105 to 108 range Sunday through Tuesday. We will have to keep an eye on this period for possibly our first heat products of the summer as heat risk also suggest a red day which would be a high risk to those susceptible to heat or who have high exposure with limited resources to assist in cooling. BB-8
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