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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 856 Pm Cst Sun Dec 3 2023
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming west late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers.

GMZ600 856 Pm Cst Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis..A light to moderate offshore flow continues through the middle of the week in the wake of a cold front. Moderate to strong offshore flow may develop Wednesday before turning easterly and relaxing by the end of the week.

FXUS64 KMOB 040543 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1143 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

VFR conditions will largely prevail over the next 24 hours, with the exception of LIFR to IFR visibilities and ceilings due to patchy/areas of fog occurring across south central Alabama and the northern portions of the western Florida Panhandle late tonight into Monday morning. Localized VLIFR conditions could be realized in fog- prone and other low-lying areas. Calm to light and variable winds overnight will become westerly at 5-10 knots on Monday and then northwesterly by late afternoon. /22

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 332 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Drier and cooler conditions will return as the cold front moves through the area. Rain has cleared as the cold front slowly pushes east. A cooler and drier airmass will move into the area behind the front this afternoon and evening. A dry forecast is expected through the remainder of the period. Lows tonight will range from the mid/upper 40s inland to mid 50s along the coast. Highs on Monday will be in the mid and upper 60s. BB/03

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 332 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

An upper trof mostly over the northern/central Plains amplifies significantly while advancing into the eastern states through Tuesday night before moving off into the western Atlantic. An associated surface low passes well north of the region and brings a weak reinforcing cold front through the forecast area Tuesday night, but deep layer moisture will be too limited to consider pops. Dry conditions are otherwise expected through Wednesday night along with a modest cooling trend. Highs on Tuesday will be 60 to 65, then highs on Wednesday will be 55 to 60. Lows Monday night and Tuesday night typically range from the mid to upper 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the coast, then lows Wednesday night range from the lower 30s inland to near 40 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected during the period. /29

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

An upper trof evolves over the central states Friday into Friday night then amplifies substantially while advancing into the eastern states over the weekend. A dome of cool high pressure over the southeast states Thursday morning shifts quickly off to the east allowing for a return flow to become established by Thursday afternoon. A surface low located well off to the north brings a cold front across the Plains early in the period, though afterwards there are timing uncertainties regarding how quickly the front approaches and eventually moves through the forecast area. Currently, the frontal passage looks to occur Saturday night, or later during the day on Sunday. The slower solution allows more time for deep layer moisture to flow into the area, and also has stronger shear and possibly better instability. As noted by the previous shift, it's too early to speculate on the potential for severe weather prospects given the timing uncertainties so will closely monitor at this point. Have continued with dry conditions over the area through Friday, then chance pops follow for Saturday and Sunday, except for likely pops for much of the area Saturday night. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Light offshore winds will continue through the forecast. Offshore winds may increase late Tuesday night through Wednesday before quickly diminishing again by the end of the week. No hazards are expected at this time. BB/03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 51 70 40 64 41 59 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 56 71 45 65 45 58 40 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 60 73 49 66 47 60 42 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 48 70 38 65 37 58 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 47 67 37 63 37 57 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 47 67 36 62 37 55 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 50 71 38 66 38 58 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Fishing Bend
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Sun -- 02:39 AM CST     1.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:35 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:11 PM CST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:47 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:37 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida, Tide feet

East Bay
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Sun -- 02:42 AM CST     1.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:35 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:37 PM CST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:36 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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