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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 928 Pm Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect Thursday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday evening through late Thursday night...
.small craft advisory in effect from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon...
Overnight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Saturday night..South winds around 5 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 928 Pm Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
high pressure has settled over the area but should begin to push east tonight. A return to a moderate onshore flow is expected by tomorrow morning and then strong onshore flow by late morning and we could even see gales Thursday night. Moderate onshore flow will persist into the weekend as a series of low pressure systems pass north of the waters. Headlines are already in place.

FXUS64 KLIX 300557 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1157 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 438 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

It was a very quiet and cool day with a chilly start to it as about a 3rd maybe even closer to half of the area saw temps dip to 32 or lower, even NBG saw the mercury dip to 32. Cirrus is starting to slide into the area.

Main concern is tomorrow and into Saturday with the greatest impacts looking like between 03z Friday and 15z Friday but there is still a lot of uncertainty and the guidance global, mesoscale, CAMs all with some slightly deviation from little rain at all through midday Friday, holding most of the rain off till almost 12Z Fri to laying up multiple rounds of rain tomorrow evening into Friday morning. Yes you did read that there are some solutions that have little rain at all through midday Friday. There is a lot of uncertainty and right now the best forecast shot is storms will begin to roll into northwestern portions of the CWA around 06z Fri and work east given the mid lvl pattern there is a high chance that the storms take on a WSW to ENE orientation during the early morning hours a few strong possibly severe storms can not be ruled out initially maybe between 5/6z till 8/9z but after that there appears to be a much better chance of a heavy rain setup developing. All of the dynamics will quickly pull away to the NE or even NNE Thursday night and this is very common with convection waning (at least the risk for strong/severe). This also will lead to the sfc low pulling away well north of the area quickly and with no forcing or strong cold air mass behind it the line will slow down considerably and that is when the convection would take on that orientation and we could see a line of training storms.
Abundant moisture will be in place and very strong LL convergence initially should lead to favorable thunderstorms development and even help to possibility of strong/severe storms with very strong shear in place but quickly the core of the LL jet will lift north with the dynamics and the potency of storms should begin to wane.
Storms will still develop as the line slow and stretches and then we will see training storms possible. That is when the heavy rain threat will become a greater concern and overnight.

Biggest con in this is that all of the best support will quickly be lifting northeast away and this rarely bodes well for strong/severe convection for our area and many times even kills convection as a whole which is why some models are likely not having much over the area at all. This will constantly be re-evaluated over the next 24 hours.

Friday and into the weekend rain chances remain high as we never get cleaned out and southwest flow remains over the area. Friday night could be another night with locally heavy rain being a concern but it will be highly dependent on heavy rain developing overnight Thursday. /CAB/

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 438 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Focus is really on the short term portion of the forecast when we will have the greatest impacts. . Better agreement in the medium range guidance with respect to the rain and moisture moving out.
With that Confidence is increasing that the rain should at least mostly come to an end late Sunday possibly sooner. Lingering light rain is still possible as long as we remain under southwest flow aloft which all of the guidance holds onto till at least early Monday morning. Once the trough axis moves through we will dry out and cool some but this will not be quite as cold as the airmass we saw the last few days which brought freezing temps to a chunk of the area this morning. Come Wednesday guidance starts to diverge some one weather we could see some light showers return or not. Main issue is can we recover ahead of the next trough. /CAB/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 VFR conditions will prevail for about the first 2/3rds of the forecast period before conditions begin to deteriorate starting Thursday afternoon through the end of the forecast period. Low ceilings will move into the area bringing MVFR to IFR conditions.
In addition, gusty southerly/southeasterly winds of 20-25 knots are likely and visibility reductions are possible during any heavier rain/thunderstorms impacting terminals. -BL



MARINE
Issued at 438 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Benign conditions right now will quickly change come tomorrow.
High pressure at the sfc continues to slide east and winds have been coming around all day but are still out of the east- northeast but should become more onshore around sunrise tomorrow.
A developing sfc low around the TX and OK panhandles will lift to the east-northeast tomorrow and into the Mid MS Valley by Friday morning. This will increase the gradient winds over the coastal waters leading to at least SCY winds but the bigger concern is wind gusts as winds around 1500-2k ft abv the sfc will ramp up and could approach 45kt. These will have the ability to mix down providing Gale force gusts but mainly over the water west of the mouth of the river and possibly the tidal Lakes which will be closer to the system and the strong low level winds. With that we have a SCY issued for all zones, western waters at 15z and eastern waters around 21z. We will then have a Gale Watch for the western waters and Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas. This is the 3rd period and the potential is there for Gales but at the least the SCY is already out as well and if it looks like winds will be stronger we can overnight tonight or tomorrow upgrade the Watch to a warning to replace the Adv for those areas. Headlines will drop out from west to east on Friday as the gradient starts to break down. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 39 64 56 75 / 0 50 90 50 BTR 46 68 60 79 / 0 70 90 50 ASD 40 68 59 77 / 0 30 80 60 MSY 50 68 62 77 / 0 50 80 70 GPT 44 67 60 74 / 0 20 70 70 PQL 36 69 57 77 / 0 20 70 80

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ530.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ530.

Gale Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night for GMZ530-550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ550- 552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ550-552- 570-572.

MS...None.
GM... Gale Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night for GMZ550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ534-536-538-555-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ552- 570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ552-570- 572.

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