Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Perdido Beach, AL

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perdido Beach, AL

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Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL

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FXUS64 KMOB 050444 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1144 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Showers and storms will redevelop across the area Monday afternoon and linger into the evening before ending. MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Calm or light and variable winds overnight become southeasterly 5 to 10 knots on Monday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 600 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023/

New AVIATION

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Convection over southeast Mississippi moves off to the west leaving isolated convection which diminishes this evening, then convection develops across the area again on Monday. MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms, otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Light and variable winds tonight become east to southeast 5 to 10 knots on Monday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

A mid level shortwave will continue to make its way out over the western Atlantic tonight, leaving the local area in between an upper trough to the northeast and an upper ridge well to the west. Scattered showers and storms have developed across the area this afternoon with the greatest coverage generally occurring along the coast. This activity is expected to continue through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening before tapering off overnight. Northeasterly flow in the upper levels has resulted in these storms moving in a general northeast to southwest direction. Current mesoscale analysis indicates DCAPE values between 900-1200 J/Kg with ample instability across the area. If a stronger updraft is able to develop, there could be some gusty winds, lightning, and small hail associated with it. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid and upper 60s for most areas.

Another round of diurnally driven showers and storms will develop again on Monday with convection peaking during the afternoon and early evening hours. Coverage is expected to be higher than today as low level moisture increases and PWATs rise to around 1.3-1.7 inches. The better moisture will linger over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama where scattered to locally numerous showers and storms are expected. Similar to today, there could be a stronger storm or two with gusty winds and small hail being the main concerns. Temperatures on Monday will be a little cooler as a result of the increased convective coverage with highs ranging from the mid 80s along the coast to the lower 90s inland. A low risk of rip currents persists into early this week. /14

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Very persistent pattern will continue through the long term period, so not much of a change from previous thinking in terms of the expected local weather through the majority of this week. A trough remains draped across the eastern portion of the CONUS through Friday, with upper flow gradually becoming more zonal over the weekend. Upper ridging will continue across the central portion of the CONUS through the period as well. As mentioned previously, shortwaves of varying amplitudes will travel through the upper flow at times through the week. These subtle shortwaves pivoting across the area will be keeping a relatively unsettled pattern through the period. The interaction of these shortwaves combined with daytime heating will result in about a 30-40% POPs each afternoon, but coverages may be increased on Thursday afternoon as a frontal boundary sags down from the north. As such we have introduced a band of 60% PoPs across southern portions of the forecast area on Thursday. The just mentioned frontal boundary will likely stall across our area going into the weekend, maintaining a low level focus for diurnal convection. But with the upper support waning, we should return to more of a scattered pattern. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s through the period, with overnight lows each night in the 60s inland and low to mid &0s down along the coast. /12

MARINE...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

No impacts expected as a light, diurnal flow pattern persists through early next week. Light westerly to southwesterly flow then becomes predominant by midweek. /14

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 67 88 65 87 67 89 69 89 / 20 50 10 40 10 40 20 60 Pensacola 71 84 70 85 71 86 74 88 / 20 30 10 30 10 30 20 50 Destin 72 85 72 86 73 86 75 86 / 20 20 10 20 10 30 20 50 Evergreen 64 90 64 90 66 91 66 91 / 10 40 10 40 10 40 20 50 Waynesboro 65 90 66 89 66 89 66 89 / 10 50 20 50 20 40 20 50 Camden 64 88 64 89 66 90 66 89 / 20 30 10 30 20 30 20 40 Crestview 64 90 65 91 65 91 68 92 / 10 20 0 30 10 40 20 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Pensacola, FL

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KNPA

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Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida

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