PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 445 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

The omega block pattern over the eastern US will be short-lived as the upper trough extending down the Eastern Seaboard evolves into a closed low and deepens, while the closed low over the central Plains develops into an open wave while lifting north- northeastward. This process will squeeze the upper ridge to only a sliver from the northeast Gulf to the Ohio River. At the surface, a very weak trough will remain across the Deep South.

A typical diurnal convective setup will persist through the weekend with precipitable water values (PWATs) remaining around 2.2". Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along the coast this morning and move inland while increasing in coverage to around 80% throughout the day. This precipitation will dissipate by midnight, but a few showers should linger along the coast after midnight into Sunday morning. A similar process will occur Sunday, with coverage again increasing to around 80% throughout the day. A few of the stronger storms have the potential of creating gusty surface winds up the 40 mph both days.
However the main concern will be the risk of water issues as the storms have the potential of being efficient rainers, and will need to be monitored.

High temperatures both days will remain near to slightly below normal, ranging from 88 to 92 degrees. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly above normal, and range from 72 to 76 degrees inland areas, and from 76 to 81 degrees along the coast. A LOW rip current risk is expected to continue for all beaches through the near term. /22

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Upper level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico retreats westward and becomes centered over Texas on Monday. This progression is in response to a deepening upper trough over much of the eastern US and into parts of the Southeast. Northwesterly flow aloft will therefore develop and linger into early next week as the area remains wedged in between these two features. Down at the surface, high pressure gradually shifts from the southeast down into the Gulf of Mexico. Plenty of moisture will be in place through early next week with PWAT values generally ranging from 1.85-2 inches.
This moisture combined with the daily sea-breeze, remnant outflow boundaries, and troughing over the Southeast will help to keep rain chances elevated into Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will likely develop along the coast and offshore waters each morning before spreading inland through the afternoon and evening hours. The highest rain chances will likely be over eastern portions of the area given that middle and upper level heights will be lower in these areas. Temperatures will be rather typical for late July with high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows in the 70s.

The upper level ridge will begin to build back into the area as we go into the middle and latter part of next week. Increasing mid and upper level heights will result in higher temperatures during this time, especially for western portions of the area due to their proximity to the ridging aloft. High temperatures will likely rise back into the middle 90s for most areas with heat index values reaching to around 108 degrees. We'll continue to monitor trends, but it looks like we could see heat headlines enter back into the forecast by next week. Increasing subsidence aloft will also help to lower rain chances slightly with scattered (30-50%) showers and storms anticipated across the area by Thursday and Friday. A few pulse type storms can't be ruled out during the period with brief gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall being the main concerns. There is a low risk of rip currents through all of next week. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Locally higher winds and seas will remain a possibility near occasional scattered to numerous thunderstorms into early next week, and conditions will remain favorable for the development of waterspouts over the next few days. Otherwise, a light southerly flow prevails through the weekend before becoming mainly southwesterly Sunday night through midweek. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 89 76 91 74 91 75 93 75 / 80 30 80 30 60 20 70 30 Pensacola 88 78 89 77 90 77 91 77 / 70 30 80 40 70 40 70 40 Destin 90 79 90 79 90 79 90 79 / 70 40 80 40 70 50 70 40 Evergreen 90 73 91 73 90 73 91 73 / 80 40 80 30 70 30 70 20 Waynesboro 89 73 92 73 93 74 94 74 / 80 40 80 20 60 10 60 10 Camden 88 72 89 73 90 72 90 72 / 80 40 80 30 70 30 70 20 Crestview 91 73 92 74 91 73 92 73 / 80 40 80 30 70 30 70 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.