NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 331 Pm Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers. Patchy fog late this evening and overnight.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..West winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..North winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..North winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..North winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 331 Pm Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis..Moderate to occasionally strong southeast to southerly flow persists today, becoming moderate for the weekend. Light to moderate offshore flow becomes established Sunday night into early next week in the wake of a cold front.

FXUS64 KMOB 020030 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 630 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Surface observations and satellite imagery reveal a mix of VFR to LIFR conditions across the area this evening. Ceilings will continue to lower to IFR and LIFR area wide through the evening as another round of widespread showers and storms moves into the area. Rain chances increase around or shortly after midnight and will linger into the day Saturday. Patchy dense sea fog also becomes possible along the Alabama coast and may spread into coastal areas especially after midnight, which could reduce ceilings and visibility significantly late tonight into Saturday morning.
Conditions should improve slightly to MVFR and IFR through the day Saturday. /14



PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 447 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023/

New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 446 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

A messy and still somewhat uncertain weather pattern continues across the region tonight through Saturday night. The anticipated first round of showers and storms moved across the region this morning and is now east of the area. Still some patches of lingering rain and light showers, but for the most part we are expecting generally rain-free conditions into this evening.

The HiRes models are all indicating redevelopment of showers and storms across our area tonight through Saturday, but uncertainties remain as to the timing and coverage. The Global models, as well as the HRRR and WRF-ARW, indicate storms and showers beginning to develop to our west as a series of weak shortwaves lift northeast across the area in the southwesterly flow aloft and over a warm and moist airmass east of a surface front that will remain nearly stationary to the west of our area through Saturday. The NAM 3KM actually indicates both the development to our west as well as a robust development along the marine warm front that is situated just offshore of our area. Regardless of when and where exact coverages of precipitation will be, pattern supports categorical PoPs from late tonight through the near term period.

As such, a heavy rainfall threat will continue across our area through late Saturday. If the NAM 3KM verifies, we could easily see 3 to 5 inches of total rainfall in the near term period, particularly over the western FL panhandle counties and a sliver of south central AL. Current highest QPF numbers, advertising the totals just noted, is over this same general area and after coordination with WPC we opted to introduce a SLIGHT Risk of excessive rainfall for those areas. Heavy rainfall threat is a little lower over inland areas, but still looking for an additions 1-2 inches there. Since todays storm total rainfall was mostly less than 1 inch across our area, we will not be issuing any Flash Flood products with this afternoons forecast package, but will continue to monitor for that potential.

There continues to be a conditional severe threat into Saturday as well, although that will be a rather limited threat. While ample shear and MLCAPE will be present, particularly nearer the coast, storms may struggle to become severe thanks to extensive storm interactions across the area, deep layer moisture and poor lapse rates. The deep layer moisture will limit downburst potential, and DCAPES remain rather low. The presence of the surface marine warm front just offshore could be enough of a focus for storms to organize and be capable of a possible brief tornado, but this will be highly conditional as to whether or not the marine boundary moves onshore or not. Further inland, the threat seems much more conditional and likely limited to an isolated instance of strong to damaging wind gusts. Without a surface boundary to focus things, any tornado threat should remain confined more to the coast. The overall threat is very low, but SPC maintains the blanket MARGINAL Risk over our area for Saturday for the reasons just noted.

The only other concern will be fog potential. Water temperatures have sufficiently cooled into the upper 50's to lower 60's, and with lower 70's dewpoints being advected over this we could see a favorable setup for sea fog development across the MS Sound into Mobile Bay this evening, which would have significant visibility impacts to immediate coastal communities. Some of this fog may develop inland overnight, especially over the western half of our forecast area. We have included the potential for patchy fog, possibly dense in some locations, for the coastal and western portions of our forecast area for tonight. Due to uncertainties we will let the overnight shifts decided as to whether a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed. /12

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

We transition out of the wet pattern and back into a cooler and drier pattern late this weekend and through next week.

The tail end of the band of rain will be exiting the area through the morning hours on Sunday as a cold front ushers in much drier air and surface ridging begins to nudge into the area. Meanwhile, a shortwave aloft pivots into the Midwest on Sunday as a ridge remains anchored over the southern Gulf and Caribbean. Another shortwave quickly slides into the Plains through the day on Sunday on the heels of the initial shortwave. That secondary shortwave strengthens as it pivots across the Midwest on Monday. A reinforcing, dry front (associated with the second shortwave) slips across the region on Monday. Flow aloft briefly turns zonal through Tuesday night in the wake of the second shortwave and a surface high builds overhead. Yet another dry front in the seemingly never-ending parade of cold fronts will dive across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday before a surface ridge builds into the region through the end of the work week. We will likely remain in this dry pattern until the following Monday.

Daytime temperatures become more seasonable early next week, while somewhat cooler by mid-week (highs in the 50s) in the wake of the cold fronts. Lows will be chilly next week with the coldest temperatures occurring Wednesday night into Thursday morning with lows plunging into the 30s across much of the area (low 40s at the beaches). 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Moderate to occasionally strong southeast to southerly flow persists today, becoming moderate for the weekend. Winds will likely remain as SCEC level offshore tonight through Saturday, which will be hazardous for small craft. Winds and seas will also be locally higher near showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will move east across the marine area late Saturday and early Sunday, with a of a moderate offshore flow becoming established Sunday night into the early part of next week. /12

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 64 74 62 70 51 66 42 64 / 100 100 90 20 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 67 74 65 71 55 66 46 63 / 100 100 90 40 0 0 0 0 Destin 67 75 66 74 57 69 49 65 / 90 90 100 50 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 62 75 60 72 46 67 37 64 / 90 100 90 30 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 62 72 57 69 48 63 38 64 / 90 100 60 10 0 0 0 0 Camden 62 71 59 68 46 62 37 61 / 90 100 80 20 0 0 0 0 Crestview 63 74 62 74 47 68 39 65 / 100 100 100 50 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:25 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:28 AM CST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:43 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:53 PM CST     1.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Warrington
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:05 AM CST     1.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:27 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:25 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:32 AM CST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:43 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Mobile, AL,